NEWS & MEDIA

<p><a href=”https://PiQSuite.com/Suite/reuters/2023:newsml_KBN2VQ0GP” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>French business activity strengthened in March by more than forecast, a monthly survey showed on Friday, as the euro zone’s second-biggest economy benefited from growth in its dominant services sector.</a></p><p>French S&amp;P PMIs:</p><p>Services PMI Flash: 55.5 (Forecast 52.5, Previous 53.1)</p><p>Mfg PMI Flash: 47.7 (Forecast 48, Previous 47.4)</p><p>Comp Flash PMI: 54 (Forecast 51.5, Previous 51.7)</p><p>France’s private sector saw a notable improvement in activity levels at the end of the first quarter, with overall output rising at the fastest pace since May 2022. This marked the second successive month of growth, albeit one that was entirely driven by services businesses as factory production fell for a tenth month running.</p><p><a href=”https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/1a73490bd72a4a7fb149b98ee0f6dd43″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Full Report</a></p><p><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/eur/” class=”terms__main-term” id=”b0427fd7-674c-4ad1-b689-22d1f8b087b0″>EUR</a></p> This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY looks to continue its downside momentum this morning. Mixed inflation data has reignited hope of further tweaks to the yield control policy.

A potential move to the 1.2400 region in GBP/USD seems to have lost some traction as of late, note Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek S

Silver is seen consolidating its recent strong gains to the highest level since February 03 touched the previous day and seesaws between tepid gains/m

Spain Gross Domestic Product (YoY) came in at 2.6%, below expectations (2.7%) in 4Q

Spain Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.2%) in 4Q

EUR/USD pulled back after breaking above 1.0900. However, economists at ING expect the pair to test the 1.1000 level. Focus will be on PMI readings in

The greenback, when tracked by the USD Index (DXY), trades in a flattish fashion around 102.60 at the end of the week. USD Index now looks at data The

The US Dollar is markedly weaker after the March FOMC meeting. Economists at HSBC believe the near-term USD path is likely to remain choppy. Uncertain

The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish rebound from the 1.3630 area, or over a two-week low and oscillates in a narrow

Considering advanced prints from CME Group for gold futures markets, open interest increased by around 11.2K contracts on Thursday, reversing two cons

Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 24: The US Dollar seems to have found its footing late Thursday following a pullback witnessed in Wall

<p><a href=”https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2920-euro-market-open-wall-st-closed-higher-amid-a-dovish-repricing-despite-hawkish-thursday-action&amp;utm_source=newsquawk&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter&amp;utm_content=euro-open” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Newsquawk’s Euro Market Open: Wall St. closed higher amid a dovish repricing despite hawkish Thursday action</a></p><p>Key Points</p><p>APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the recent bout of central bank rate hikes.</p><p>US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they are prepared for additional deposit actions if warranted.</p><p>European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8% after the cash market closed up 0.3% on Thursday.</p><p>DXY is contained around the 102.50 mark, JPY leads G10 FX, NZD lags, other majors are steady.</p><p>Looking ahead, highlights include UK Retail Sales, EZ, UK &amp; US Flash PMIs, US Durable Goods, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, ECB’s Nagel &amp; BoE’s Mann.</p> This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

In the opinion of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, EUR/USD could move into a consolidative phase in the near

developing story …

United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) came in at -3.5%, above forecasts (-4.7%) in February

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (0.1%) in February

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) above forecasts (-4.7%) in February: Actual (-3.3%)

United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in February: Actual (1.2%)

Norway Credit Indicator in line with expectations (5.4%) in February

<p>The February Retail Sales numbers are in for the UK-</p><p>HeadlineMoM: 1.2% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.5%)</p><p>YoY -3.5% (Forecast -4.7%, Previous -5.1%)</p><p>Core Retail Sales </p><p>MoM: 1.5% (Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.4%)</p><p>YoY -3.3% (Forecast -4.8%, Previous -5.4%)</p><p><a href=”https://PiQSuite.com/Suite/reuters/2023:newsml_KBN2VQ0D6″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Reuters Note – The economy looks on track to avoid a recession which was widely forecast at the turn of the year, and a consumer confidence survey on Friday showed sentiment at a one-year high, though still very weak by historic standards.</a></p> This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) came in at -1%, above forecasts (-2.6%) in February

AUD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high near 0.6690 during early Friday morning. In doing so, the Aussie pair consolidates the weekly losses wh

Denmark Industrial Outlook: -14 (March) vs -15

Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (10.2%) in February: Actual (9.3%)

Gold price is trading listlessly so far this Friday, as bulls take a breather after the recent blistering rally. Daily technical setup suggests more g

<p>BoE’s Bailey is currently having a prerecorded interview played on the BBC’s Radio 4 (looks like they have spliced the interview and will be drip-feeding it out over the morning).<a href=”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-65056733″ target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Thankfully, BBC have published an article already</a></p><p>Opening salvo of the article…</p><p>Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey has warned businesses that raising prices risks embedding inflation in the UK and hurting the “least well off”.</p><p>”If all prices try to beat inflation we will get higher inflation,” Mr Bailey told Radio 4’s Today Programme.</p><p>He warned interest rates would rise again if prices continued to increase.</p><p>Mr Bailey was speaking a day after the Bank raised interest rates to their highest level for 14 years after prices unexpectedly soared last month.</p><p>The Bank has been steadily increasing interest rates as it seeks to make borrowing money more expensive and encourage people to spend less, with the aim of stopping prices rising so quickly.</p><p>TBH – It lacks any substance</p> This article was written by Ryan Paisey at www.forexlive.com.

Gold price (XAU/USD) renews its intraday low around $1,987 during the first loss-making day in three amid early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so,

NZD/USD trims intraday losses around 0.6240 during early Friday morning as market sentiment dwindles during the first loss-making day in three. The Ki

GBP/USD has attempted a recovery after dropping to near 1.2260 in the early European session. The recovery move in Cable is backed by a loss of upside

FX option expiries for Mar 24 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. – EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0675-80 627m 1.0700-10 1.4b 1.0800

Natural Gas Price (XNG/USD) portrays a corrective bounce from the short-term key support while snapping a two-day losing streak around $2.31 heading i

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) rose from previous 3% to 3.2% in 4Q

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) unchanged at 0.6% in 4Q

Markets in the Asian domain are showing roots of caution as investors are shifting their focus toward the release of the global Purchasing Managers In

<p>Federation of Small Businesses with the projection. </p><ul><li>Says that businesses need to be able to renegotiate their energy contracts to reflect lower wholesale prices</li><li>Notes this especially applies to that signed fixed contracts when the government support was in place.</li></ul><p>The UK will be extending energy support to consumers, but the aid to businesses will end April 1.</p><p>Info comes via Bloomberg, gated. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<ul><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/more-on-the-raid-of-us-firms-beijing-office-5-chinese-citizens-detained-20230324/”>More on the raid of US firm’s Beijing office, 5 Chinese citizens detained</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-conducted-airstrikes-in-syria-against-facilities-used-by-groups-affiliated-with-iran-20230324/”>US conducted airstrikes in Syria against facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/reports-that-us-firm-minz-group-beijing-office-raided-chinese-staff-detained-20230324/”>Reports that US firm Minz Group Beijing office raided, Chinese staff detained</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/icymi-ecbs-knot-says-still-think-we-another-rate-hike-will-be-needed-in-may-20230324/”>ICYMI – ECB’s Knot says still think another rate hike will be needed in May</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/usdjpy-hit-a-six-week-low-under-13028-20230324/”>USD/JPY hit a six week low under 130.28</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-reference-rate-for-today-at-68374-vs-estimate-at-68367-20230324/”>PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8374 (vs. estimate at 6.8367)</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/el-salvadore-to-propose-eliminating-all-taxes-on-tech-innovations-and-more-20230324/”>El Salvadore to propose eliminating all taxes on Tech innovations, and more</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/fx-option-expiries-for-friday-24-march-at-the-10am-new-york-cut-20230324/”>FX option expiries for Friday 24 March at the 10am New York cut</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-preliminary-march-2023-manufacturing-pmi-486-prior-477-20230324/”>Japan preliminary March 2023 Manufacturing PMI 48.6 (prior 47.7)</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/after-the-bank-of-england-rate-hike-deutsche-bank-on-what-to-watch-to-trigger-another-hike-20230324/”>After the Bank of England rate hike Deutsche Bank on what to watch to trigger another hike</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-data-march-consumer-confidence-rises-to-36-from-38-in-february-20230324/”>UK data – March consumer confidence rises to -36 from -38 in February</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-us-energy-secretary-granholm-says-it-could-take-years-to-refill-oil-reserve-20230323/”>ICYMI – US energy secretary Granholm says it could take years to refill oil reserve</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-february-cpi-headline-33-yy-expected-41-core-31-yy-expected-31-20230323/”>Japan February CPI headline 3.3% y/y (expected 4.1%), Core 3.1% y/y (expected 3.1%)</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-russias-novak-confirmed-a-shallower-cut-to-oil-output-than-previously-indicated-20230323/”>ICYMI – Russia’s Novak confirmed a shallower cut to oil output than previously indicated</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-on-the-reported-ecb-will-probably-have-to-do-more-in-may-comments-from-holzmann-20230323/”>More on the reported “ECB will probably have to do more in May” comments from Holzmann</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/morgan-stanley-says-the-end-is-near-forecast-one-more-fomc-rate-hike-may-and-done-20230323/”>Morgan Stanley says the end is near – forecast one more FOMC rate hike. May and done.</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/australia-preliminary-march-pmi-manufacturing-487-prior-505-services-482-507-20230323/”>Australia preliminary March PMI: Manufacturing 48.7 (prior 50.5) Services 48.2 (50.7)</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/heads-up-europe-and-the-uk-switch-to-daylight-saving-time-this-coming-weekend-20230323/”>Heads up – Europe and the UK switch to daylight saving time this coming weekend</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/yellen-says-confident-usd-will-remain-the-global-reserve-currency-despite-china-and-russia-20230323/”>Yellen says confident USD will remain the global reserve currency despite China and Russia</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-23-mar-boe-hikes-by-25-basis-points-to-425-20230323/”>Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 Mar: BOE hikes by 25 basis points to 4.25%</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/goldman-sachs-baseline-fed-funds-rate-forecast-is-above-the-federal-reserves-20230323/”>Goldman Sachs baseline Fed Funds rate forecast is above the Federal Reserve’s</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-friday-24-march-2023-20230323/”>Trade ideas thread – Friday, 24 March 2023</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-discount-window-loans-fall-in-the-week-term-funding-fdic-bridge-loans-rose-20230323/”>Fed discount window loans fall in the week, term funding &amp; FDIC bridge loans rose</a></li></ul><p class=”western”> The data point focus during the Asian session was on February CPI data from Japan. The headline rate fell hard from January:</p><p class=”western”>Headline rate 3.3% y/y </p><p class=”western”>expected 4.1%, prior 4.3%</p><p class=”western”>But both of the core measures were much more ‘sticky’”</p><p class=”western”>CPI ex-Fresh Food 3.1% y/y (this is the ‘core’ rate) </p><p class=”western”>expected 3.1%, prior 4.2%</p><p class=”western”>CPI ex Food, Energy 3.5% y/y (this is ‘core-core’ rate, the closest to the US measure of core CPI)</p><p class=”western”>expected 3.4%, prior 3.2%</p><p class=”western”>The Bank of Japan have continued to forecast inflation to fall from around September/October. New Bank of Japan Governor Ueda begins in his role from the second week in April. So far he has not shown much inclination to speed towards tighter policy.</p><p class=”western”>On the session USD/JPY had a shunt lower, from highs above 130.80 to a six week low under 130.30. As I post it has recovered to be mid-range circa 130.50.</p><p class=”western”>Otherwise across the majors board ranges were more subdued and the USD was a touch stronger. CHF, CAD, AUD, EUR, NZD all down against the big dollar. </p><p class=”western”>In other data news Australia’s flash March PMIs slumped into contraction. Japan’s flash March PMIs showed manufacturing remained in contraction (with a slight improvement from February) while services continued their expansion run and the Composite hit its highest in 9 months. </p><p class=”western”>The PBOC set the CNY 300+ points stronger at the reference rate today, confirming CNY’s upmove on Thursday.</p><p class=”western”>In geopolitical news the US conducted air strikes against Iranian facilities in Syria. </p><p class=”western”>Asian equity markets:</p><ul> <li><p class=”western”> Japan’s Nikkei 225 -0.26%</p> </li><li><p class=”western”> China’s Shanghai Composite -0.65%</p> </li><li><p class=”western”> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.49%</p> </li><li><p class=”western”> South Korea’s KOSPI -0.65%</p> </li><li><p class=”western”> Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX 200 -0.26% </p> </li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Via Twitter:</p><p>Earlier this week, or perhaps late last week I reported on Gundlach saying he expects a US recession by July.</p><p>I guess this fits with that. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headline on this is here:</p><p><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/reports-that-us-firm-minz-group-beijing-office-raided-chinese-staff-detained-20230324/” target=”_blank” rel=”follow” data-article-link=”true”>Reports that US firm Minz Group Beijing office raided, Chinese staff detained</a></p><p>Reuters have popped up a little more info,<a href=”https://www.reuters.com/world/us-due-diligence-firm-mintz-groups-beijing-office-raided-five-staff-detained-2023-03-24/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”> link here</a></p><ul><li>The source for the New York-headquartered firm told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the company’s local legal counsel said the raid occurred on the afternoon of March 20, and that the employees were being held incommunicado somewhere outside of Beijing.</li></ul><p>Not really how you’d like your day at the office to go, eh?</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>US Sec Defense confirms CENTCOM forces conducted airstrikes tonight in eastern Syria</p><ul><li> against facilities used by groups affiliated with Iran ‘s IRGC</li><li>“The airstrikes were conducted in response to today’s attack as well as a series of recent attacks”</li></ul><p>—</p><p>In a UAV attack earlier, a drone hit a coalition base in northeast Syria</p><ul><li>wounded 5 US troops and killed a contractor </li><li>The UAV was found to be of Iranian origin</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Headlines via Reuters, awaiting further detail.</p><ul><li>Beijing office raided</li><li>5 Chinese staff detained</li></ul><p>Reuters cite a company source. </p><p>—</p><p>Mintz Group is a corporate investigations firm </p><ul><li>performs due diligence for clients</li><li> before hiring, before transactions, during litigation disputes and after frauds</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Dutch <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/c/central-bank/” class=”terms__main-term” id=”fa4d7425-bd4d-4362-8fdd-c310fa3df626″>central bank</a> chief Klaas Knot is a <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/e/european-central-bank/” class=”terms__secondary-term” id=”9685d527-8a71-4566-9f96-f1879bb6b5df”>European Central Bank</a> Governing Council member.</p><p>He spoke on Thursday in an interview with Reuters and at a news conference separately:</p><ul><li>”I regard it unlikely that we would already be done by now,”</li><li>”It’s highly questionable whether maintaining rates only in mildly restrictive territory … would be enough to generate the immaculate disinflation that we probably all hope for.”</li><li>”I still think we need to make another step in May but I don’t know the size of that step” </li><li>”very, very far” from a financial crisis in Europe</li></ul><p>Link here to <a href=”https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/ecb-could-hike-rates-again-may-tame-stubborn-inflation-knot-2023-03-23/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>Reuters </a>for more.</p><p>Last week the ECB hiked by +50bp. The next policy meeting is May 4th. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>USD/JPY loses ground. US equity index futures also slammed lower. </p><p>Apart from what has already been posted there is nothing fresh on the news feed.</p><p>From Japan earlier:</p><ul><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-february-cpi-headline-33-yy-expected-41-core-31-yy-expected-31-20230323/” target=”_blank” rel=”follow” data-article-link=”true”>Japan February CPI headline 3.3% y/y (expected 4.1%), Core 3.1% y/y (expected 3.1%)</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”>People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.</p><ul><li>USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.</li><li>CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.</li><li>A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.</li></ul><p>The previous close was 6.8286</p><p>Big jump for the yuan at the reference rate setting today, 300+ stronger for CNY. You can see by the previous close the CNY gained on Thursday.</p><p class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”>PBOC injects 7 bn yuan in open market operations (OMOs) via 7 day reverse repos (RRs) at an unchanged rate of 2%</p><ul class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”><li class=”vertical-align-baseline”>180bn yuan of RRs mature today</li><li class=”vertical-align-baseline”>thus a net drain of 173bn yuan</li></ul><p>For the week, net drain of 113bn yuan</p><p>eur</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Bukele tweet – he is president of El Salvador</p><ul><li>Next week, I’ll be sending a bill to congress to eliminate all taxes (income, property, capital gains and import tariffs) on technology innovations, such as software programming, coding, apps and AI development; as well as computing and communications hardware manufacturing.</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Some of these seem a little far away to be of much help, but some are close to spot also. </p><p>For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/Education/!/forexlive-education-option-contracts-their-impact-and-how-to-trade-off-them-20161116″ rel=”follow” target=”_blank” class=”article-link”>here</a>.</p><p>EUR/USD: </p><ul><li>1.0675-80(EUE627mln) </li><li>1.0700-10(EUR1.4bln)</li><li>1.0800(EUR1.6bln)</li><li>1.0850(EUR539mln)</li><li>1.0875(EUR509mln)</li><li>1.0890-10(EUR656mln)</li></ul><p>USD/JPY: </p><ul><li>130.00($830mln)</li><li>131.00($592mln)</li><li>132.95-00($1.3bln)</li></ul><p>EUR/GBP: </p><ul><li>0.8900(EUR635mln)</li></ul><p>AUD/USD: </p><ul><li>0.6700(AUD$669mln)</li></ul><p>USD/CAD: </p><ul><li>1.3600-05($606mln)</li><li>1.3620-30($1.1bln)</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>PBOC CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Jibun S&amp;P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI from Japan in March 2023 is 48.6</p><ul><li>prior 47.7</li></ul><p>Services 54.2</p><ul><li>prior 54.0</li></ul><p>Composite 51.9</p><ul><li>prior 51.1</li><li>if confirmed in the ‘final’ this would be the highest in 9 months</li></ul><p>Earlier:</p><ul><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-february-cpi-headline-33-yy-expected-41-core-31-yy-expected-31-20230323/” target=”_blank” rel=”follow” data-article-link=”true”>Japan February CPI headline 3.3% y/y (expected 4.1%), Core 3.1% y/y (expected 3.1%)</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>ICYMI on the Bank of England rate hike Thursday:</p><ul><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boe-hike-25-bps-7-2-vote-split-20230323/” rel=”follow” target=”_self” class=”article-link”>BoE Hike 25 bps 7-2 vote split</a></li></ul><ul class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”><li class=”vertical-align-baseline”><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/more-from-bailey-we-dont-know-if-425-will-be-a-peak-in-rates-20230323/” rel=”follow” target=”_self” class=”article-link vertical-align-baseline”>More from Bailey: We don’t know if 4.25% will be a peak in rates</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/boes-bailey-we-believe-inflation-will-fall-quite-rapidly-befor-the-summer-20230323/” rel=”follow” target=”_self” class=”article-link”>BOE’s Bailey: We believe inflation will fall quite rapidly befor the summer</a></li></ul><p>Response via Deutsche Bank, in brief:</p><ul><li>Forward guidance remains very much data dependent</li><li>the bar for another hike is lower than we previously thought … the case for another hike is still very finely balanced</li><li>What will determine whether the MPC hikes again or not? Services inflation, average weekly earnings, and credit conditions will all be key (among other peripheral things). While we see some upside to growth and pay, we see some downside to services CPI and credit conditions, leaving the May meeting outcome a difficult decision to call. On balance, we see more downside risks than upside. As such, we hold onto our call for Bank Rate staying put at 4.25% with risks tilted to one further hike in May.</li></ul><p>Bank of England Governor Bailey </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>UK GfK Consumer Confidence for March 2023 comes in at -36. This is the highest in a year. </p><ul><li>expected -36, prior -38</li></ul><p>—</p><p>The UK GfK Consumer Confidence Index</p><ul><li>a monthly survey conducted by the market research firm GfK</li><li>measures the level of confidence that consumers in the UK have in the economy and their personal financial situation</li><li>sample of 2,000 adults aged 16 and over</li><li>scored on a scale from -100 to +100, with zero being neutral, above zero indicates that consumers are more confident about the economy and their personal finances, while a score below zero indicates that they are less confident</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm was speaking in a House of Representatives congressional hearing Thursday. </p><p>Referring to the sales of oil from the strategic reserve and the need to replenish the holdias said:</p><ul><li>”This year, it will be difficult for us to take advantage of this low price” </li><li>”But we will continue to look for that low price into the future because we intend to be able to save the taxpayer dollars.”</li></ul><p>Granholm cited sale and maintenance at two of the reserve’s four sites as reasons that’ll make it difficult to buy back oil this year.</p><p>—</p><p>The background to this:</p><ul><li>circa 180mn barrels have been sold from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, average price around US$94</li><li>Granholm said at the hearing the administration wants to buy oil back at under $72 a barrel</li><li>The US Department of Energy said last month it was implementing a three-part strategy to refill the reserve in the long term</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Japan February inflation figures. </p><p>Consumer Price Index, headline rate 3.3% y/y</p><ul><li>expected 4.1%, prior 4.3%</li></ul><p>CPI ex-Fresh Food 3.1% y/y (this is the ‘core’ rate)</p><ul><li>expected 3.1%, prior 4.2%</li></ul><p>CPI ex Food, Energy 3.5% y/y (this is ‘core-core’ rate, the closest to the US measure of core CPI) </p><ul><li>expected 3.4%, prior 3.2%</li><li>3.5% is the highest since January 1982</li></ul><p>The headline rate dropped from January, in line with a similar result from the Tokyo area February CPI three weeks ago. Core and core-core rates, showing underlying inflationary pressures, are far more sticky though. The Bank of Japan expects inflation to be transitory and to decline from around September/October so its too early to draw any hard conclusions about the implications of this data for BOJ monetary policy. </p><p>Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda finishes up at the Bank on April 8. He’ll be replaced by Kazuo Ueda, on the right in the pic below:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On Thursday, Europe time, Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency reported remarks from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.</p><p>Info conveyed via Reuters:</p><ul><li> said a previously announced cut of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Russia’s oil production would be from an output level of 10.2 million bpd in February</li><li>mean Russia is aiming to produce 9.7 million bpd between March and June, when the production cut will be in force, according to Novak</li></ul><p>Adds Reuters:</p><ul><li>Russia announced in February the plans to cut oil output, with state media saying the 500,000-bpd reduction would be based on January production levels of 9.8-9.9 million bpd, and would have thus taken Russia’s oil output below 9.4 million bpd.</li><li>thus Novak’s comments point towards a shallower reduction in output than Moscow previously indicated</li></ul><p>—</p><p>This adds some clarity at least to questions from <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/icymi-russia-decided-to-keep-its-oil-production-at-a-reduced-level-through-june-novak-20230321/” target=”_blank” rel=”follow”>earlier in the week:</a></p><ul><li>Note that Russia’s seaborne crude exports have been resilient, so there are questions if cuts have taken place. Domestic refinery runs have also held at levels that do not indicate output reductions.</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>You may have missed the headlines from head of the Austrian National Bank Robert Holzmann, which were, in brief:</p><ul><li>We (the European Central Bank) will probably have to do more in May on rates</li></ul><p>I am not sure where Holzmann was speaking. </p><p>The Austrian National Bank (OeNB) did present its financial statements and Annual Report 2022 overnight (March 23 Europe time). Holzmann made some points on ECB policy, <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/” class=”terms__main-term” id=”ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa”>inflation</a> and stability in these</p><ul><li>Looking ahead, it is reassuring to note that both <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/c/crude-oil/” class=”terms__secondary-term” id=”e1f1b115-23d2-48c8-98c8-24024dada457″>crude oil</a> and gas prices are already past their peak. Overall, the OeNB therefore expects HICP inflation in Austria to decline from 8.6% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023.</li></ul><p><a href=”https://www.oenb.at/en/Media/Press-Archives/2023/20230323.html” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”>More here i</a>f you are interested. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p>Morgan Stanley say they expect the final Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike of this cycle at the Mayt meeting. </p><ul><li>driven by another strong payroll print and sticky inflation</li><li>Needless to say, a surge in bank funding pressures could alter that view</li></ul><p>—</p><p>The latest Fed balance sheet highlights are here, not indicating a surge in funding pressure as yet:</p><ul><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/fed-discount-window-loans-fall-in-the-week-term-funding-fdic-bridge-loans-rose-20230323/” target=”_blank” rel=”follow” data-article-link=”true”>Fed discount window loans fall in the week, term funding &amp; FDIC bridge loans rose</a></li></ul><p>—</p><p>Fed Funds:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

<p> Judo Bank / Markit preliminary purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) for manufacturing and services sector activity in March 2023.</p><p>Manufacturing 48.7</p><ul><li>prior 50.5</li></ul><p>Services 48.2</p><ul><li>prior 50.7</li></ul><p>Composite 48.1</p><ul><li>prior 50.6</li></ul><p>From the report</p><p>Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank said: </p><ul><li>The Flash PMI results for March confirm that the economic slowdown that commenced in 2022 is continuing into 2023. The composite output and new orders indexes fell in March to be at the lowest levels since the Delta lockdowns in 2021. The March results are consistent with a soft landing for the Australian economy in 2023 and 2024 as the economy responds to higher interest rates.</li><li>Labour demand continues to ease across both the manufacturing sector and service industries although the employment indexes remain above the 50 level. </li><li>Price indicators continue to ease although they remain elevated. The price indexes are now at the lowest level since early 2021 providing further confirmation that Australian inflation has peaked in late 2022. The price indexes remain well above levels seen prior to the pandemic and suggest that there remains a high level of uncertainty about how far inflation will fall in 2023. </li><li>At this stage it is impossible to say whether inflation will be back at the RBA’s target in a reasonable time frame or not. Of most concern is service industry input prices which remain very high by historical standards with index levels in the mid 60s, and only down modestly from the high point of a year ago. This suggests that both labour costs and energy prices are inflationary and could maintain upward pressure on many prices across the Australian economy in 2023.</li><li>This will be a key concern for the RBA as they prepare to meet in early April. Against a highly uncertain global financial environment many are expecting the RBA to pause the tightening cycle. Recent strong employment numbers and uncertainty over the extent to which inflation will come down in 2023 point to a very close decision at the next RBA Board meeting in early April.</li><li>There are good arguments to pause in April, particularly if recent global financial instability does not settle down. There is also a view that the Board would be more comfortable with a cash rate closer to 4% before sitting back and observing how the economy plays out for a number of months. </li></ul><p>Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe. </p><p>The next RBA meeting is April 4. After the easy to pick rate hikes of February and March the April meeting is very much live. The argument that the Reserve Bank of Australia should hold due to global banking stress is carrying less and less weight given the Fed, BoE, SNB have all hiked regardless. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold prices rise after the Fed signals that its hiking cycle in nearing its end considering recent banking sector turmoil, an outcome that would stand to benefit non-yielding precious metals.

BoE raised rates by 25bps as expected to fresh highs last seen in 2008. The vote was split 7-2 with policymakers Tenreyro and Dhingra voting to keep rates on hold.

The US Dollar has seen broad weakness after the Federal Reserve moderated forward policy guidance.

The US dollar is seemingly disregarding another US interest rate hike and is turning lower as traders weigh up the odds for any further increases

After the ECB’s 50 basis point hike and the possibility of a Fed pause at current levels, fierce dollar selling continues. In fact, markets now anticipate US rate cuts

Gold prices gained as the US Dollar and Treasury yields fell after the Federal Reserve rate decision. All eyes turn to US initial jobless claims to gauge the economic impact of SVB’s collapse.

The S&P 500 sank 1.6% in the aftermath of Jerome Powell’s press conference and testimony from Janet Yellen. Risk aversion seems in the cards, will the US Dollar pull ahead?

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bp to 4.75%-5.00% at the end of its March policy meeting, adopting a less hawkish guidance than in previous months, a sign the hiking cycle is nearing its end.

The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, moves between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as traders avoid taking large directional positions ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision.

Gold prices have turned bearish after a strong rally pushed XAU/USD above the psychological level of $2,000. Will the Fed allow gold to resume the uptrend?

In the wake of recent panic, the Japanese yen flourished. This article takes a look at possible USD/JPY price action using a scenario-based approach

It’s not quite all about the US central bank for the oil market Wednesday, inventory data are haunting it too

EURO benefits from hawkish stance by ECB President Lagarde. Will the Fed spring a hawkish surprise and keep EURUSD bears hopeful?

The cost of living in the UK jumped unexpectedly in February, according to the latest official figures, ramping up the pressure on the Bank of England to hike interest rates on Thursday.

Gold prices face a bearish technical setup ahead of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Will the central bank signal the end to tightening?

The US Dollar is weaker today as risk assets found support from Treasury reassurances and ahead of the Federal Reserve that faces a crucial interest rate decision. Will a pause sink USD?

The Nasdaq 100 rallies despite rising Treasury yields amid speculation that the worst of the banking sector turmoil is over thanks to coordinated action by government authorities.

The euro trades higher today on a much-improved outlook as banking stocks rise across the board. ECB’s Enria and ratings agency S&P echo that EU banks are resilient

Oil prices rise and advance for the second consecutive day as market confidence improves further, but the outlook for energy commodities remains challenging.