Explore the latest stories, news and media from Areios and beyond.
- Stock Market Today: Nifty and Sensex end higher, key India/ US data eyedon February 29, 2024 at 10:19 am
The Sensex 30 and Nifty 50, India’s key benchmark indices, are set to open higher on Thursday, as Gift Nifty futures and Chinese stocks rebound.
- US PCE Preview: DXY to drop back to 103.00 in the best-case scenario – SocGenon February 29, 2024 at 10:17 am
Today’s PCE inflation print for January is the latest signpost in the enthralling rate debate.
- Gold price consolidates as focus remains on US core PCE Price Indexon February 29, 2024 at 10:14 am
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a tight range in Thursday’s European session as investors seek fresh guidance on the interest rate outlook.
- GBP/JPY bounces off one-week low, still deep in the red below 190.00 markon February 29, 2024 at 10:01 am
The GBP/JPY cross comes under intense selling pressure on Thursday and retreats further from its highest level since August 2015, around the 191.30 area touched earlier this week.
- Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -6.6% to -7% in Januaryon February 29, 2024 at 10:00 am
Greece Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -6.6% to -7% in January
- US Core PCE Inflation: Federal Reserve preferred inflation gauge expected to accelerate in January on monthon February 29, 2024 at 10:00 am
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, will be published on Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at 13:30 GMT.
- Canada GDP Preview: Economists predict expansion in Q4 as household consumption reboundson February 29, 2024 at 10:00 am
The release of the Canadian GDP Growth Rate will be the salient event on the domestic calendar later in the week.
- Greece Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 0.7% in December from previous -5.2%on February 29, 2024 at 9:59 am
Greece Retail Sales (YoY) increased to 0.7% in December from previous -5.2%
- FX still mostly stuck in a rut so far todayby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 9:53 am
On the yen move, these are the earlier posts:BOJ’s Takata: Momentum is rising in spring wage talks. Yen jumpsYen climbs as Bank of Japan drops the clearest hint of a looming rate hikeUSD/JPY down after Takata remarks but near-term levels continue to hold for nowBesides that, there hasn’t been much activity among major currencies so far on the session. In fact, other dollar pairs are only seeing 0.1% change currently. And that speaks to the lack of appetite today and for the most part, this week.Looking to the remainder of the day, we could get some injection of life when we get to US trading later.The US PCE price index will be a key risk event to watch in terms of data releases. Then, we might also get some volatility surrounding month-end flows when we get to the London fix.In the bigger picture though, the bond market will still have a say in things and it doesn’t look like there is much appetite to move just yet. But do at least keep a watchful eye on that just in case. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD’s downside will be limited – MUFGon February 29, 2024 at 9:49 am
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading in a narrow trading band, ahead of fresh US inflation data – Core PCE – that may offer signs of when the Fed will pivot, economists at MUFG Bank say.
- United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) came in at £0.8B below forecasts (£1.9B) in Januaryon February 29, 2024 at 9:32 am
United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) came in at £0.8B below forecasts (£1.9B) in January
- United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) dipped from previous -0.9% to -2.2% in Januaryon February 29, 2024 at 9:31 am
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) dipped from previous -0.9% to -2.2% in January
- South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in Januaryon February 29, 2024 at 9:30 am
South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in January
- South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (4.8%) in January: Actual (4.7%)on February 29, 2024 at 9:30 am
South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (4.8%) in January: Actual (4.7%)
- United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.877B, above expectations (£1.6B) in Januaryon February 29, 2024 at 9:30 am
United Kingdom Consumer Credit came in at £1.877B, above expectations (£1.6B) in January
- United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in Januaryon February 29, 2024 at 9:30 am
United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at -0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in January
- UK January mortgage approvals 55.23k vs 52.00k expectedby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 9:30 am
Prior 50.46k; revised to 51.51kNet consumer credit £1.9 billion vs £1.6 billion expectedPrior £1.2 billion; revised to £1.3 billionOn net, individuals repaid £1.1 billion of mortgage debt in January compared to £0.9 billion in December. Meanwhile, net consumer credit also rose on the month mostly driven by higher borrowing through credit cards, which rose from £0.3 billion in December to £0.9 billion in January. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 55.227K, above expectations (52K) in Januaryon February 29, 2024 at 9:30 am
United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals came in at 55.227K, above expectations (52K) in January
- Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD could retest sub-$22.00 levels, or two-month troughon February 29, 2024 at 9:29 am
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers following an intraday uptick on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled its modest recovery from the $22.30-$22.25 region, or a two-week low touched the previous day.
- UnitedHealth Group Inc.(UNH) Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]on February 29, 2024 at 9:27 am
UnitedHealth Group Inc., (UNH) Daily Chart. UNH Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend.
- BoJ’s imminent policy shift away from loose policy settings to provide more support for the Yen – MUFGon February 29, 2024 at 9:21 am
USD/JPY has fallen back below the 150.00 level. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.
- Copper Technical Analysisby FL Contributors on February 29, 2024 at 9:19 am
Copper erased almost all the gains from the surprising PBoC 5-yers LPR cut. Nothing has changed though, so this could be a great opportunity for those who missed the rally to position for new highs. Overall, the data has been good, and the central banks are still looking to ease their monetary policies which should keep on supporting the commodity. As long as global growth remains resilient, we can expect the bias to remain bullish. Copper Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Copper pulled back into the red 21 moving average. The price bounced here as the buyers started to pile in to position for another rally into new highs. We can see that we are basically in the middle of a big range between the 3.72 support and the 3.95 resistance, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. Copper Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price yesterday broke above the downward trendline and extended the rally into the most recent higher high at 3.86 where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into the 4.00 handle. Copper Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg lower diverged with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it led to a pullback into the 3.86 resistance. A break above the resistance should confirm the reversal and give the buyers even more conviction for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the minor upward trendline to invalidate the bullish bias and increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we will see the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the Chinese PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Weak data is likely to weigh on Copper in the short term while strong figures should give it a boost. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
- Swiss industry warns that strong franc is weighing on outlook for 2024by Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 9:06 am
The group says that the outlook for this year is rather uncertain. And considering the still overvalued Swiss franc, it could lead to a further decline in exports amid a slowdown in economic conditions abroad. For some context, manufacturing still contributes to a decent chunk of the Swiss economy – around 22% of its GDP. And roughly 3/4 of Swiss-made products are manufactured to be shipped abroad. The industry group says that:”The situation is very precarious. The Swiss franc remains overvalued by around 5% against the euro compared with purchasing power parity. Another appreciation surge or political shock could quickly exacerbate the downward spiral.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Spain Current Account Balance fell from previous €2.77B to €1.07B in Decemberon February 29, 2024 at 9:01 am
Spain Current Account Balance fell from previous €2.77B to €1.07B in December
- Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) up to -0.1% in December from previous -3.4%on February 29, 2024 at 9:01 am
Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) up to -0.1% in December from previous -3.4%
- Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) rose from previous -1% to 2.1% in Decemberon February 29, 2024 at 9:01 am
Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) rose from previous -1% to 2.1% in December
- Bavaria February CPI +2.6% vs +2.9% y/y priorby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 9:00 am
The other state readings released around the same time:Saxony CPI +3.0% y/yPrior +3.5%Brandenburg CPI +3.5% y/yPrior +3.7%Hesse CPI +2.1% y/yPrior +2.2%North Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.6% y/yPrior +3.0%Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.7% y/yPrior +3.2%At the balance, this should see the German national reading come in around 2.5% to 2.6% later in the day. That mostly fits with estimates going into the release. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- EUR/USD ticks higher ahead of crucial inflation reports from Eurozone and USon February 29, 2024 at 8:58 am
The EUR/USD pair is seen building on the previous day’s goodish rebound from sub-1.0800 levels, or a one-week low and gaining some positive traction during the early European session on Thursday.
- USD/JPY moves lower to near 149.80, focus on US PCE dataon February 29, 2024 at 8:56 am
USD/JPY tumbles to around 149.80 during the European session after Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata’s hawkish remarks on Thursday.
- Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. registered at 5.9% above expectations (5.8%) in Februaryon February 29, 2024 at 8:55 am
Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. registered at 5.9% above expectations (5.8%) in February
- Germany Unemployment Change above forecasts (7K) in February: Actual (11K)on February 29, 2024 at 8:55 am
Germany Unemployment Change above forecasts (7K) in February: Actual (11K)
- Germany February unemployment change 11k vs 7k expectedby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 8:55 am
Prior -2kUnemployment rate 5.9% vs 5.8% expectedPrior 5.8%German unemployment rises in February with the overall number of unemployed persons growing to 2.713 million. The jobless rate also ticked marginally higher and that is arguably a sign that the poor economic environment is starting to dampen the mood in the labour market. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- US PCE: A robust 0.4% month-on-month core print can help the Dollar – INGon February 29, 2024 at 8:52 am
The US releases Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures today.
- Japanese Yen Grabs a Bid, Emboldened by Bank of Japan Talkby Nick Cawley on February 29, 2024 at 8:41 am
USD/JPY slips back below 150 after one Bank of Japan board member suggested that the central bank’s inflation target is finally in sight
- USD/CAD Price Analysis: Consolidates below 1.3600 ahead of US core PCE, Canadian Q4 GDPon February 29, 2024 at 8:39 am
The USD/CAD pair is stuck in a tight range around 1.3570 in the European session on Thursday.
- Gold price extends the range play ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gaugeon February 29, 2024 at 8:26 am
Gold price (XAU/USD) ticks higher during the Asian session on Thursday and looks to build on the overnight modest bounce from the $2,025-2,024 area, or the weekly low.
- USD/MXN stretches lower to near 17.08 on risk appetite, US PCE data eyedon February 29, 2024 at 8:25 am
USD/MXN faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground after registering gains in the previous session despite the improved US Treasury yields.
- Gold Technical Analysisby FL Contributors on February 29, 2024 at 8:13 am
Gold continues to rise amid a lack of bearish catalysts and pretty stable price action in real yields and the US Dollar. In fact, the market has already priced out the aggressive rate cuts and it’s now in line with the Fed’s projection of three rate cuts. In the big picture, Gold should remain supported as we head into the easing cycle but in the short term it could come under pressure if the data comes out hot and makes the market to expect even less rate cuts than the Fed’s projection. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold is approaching a key trendline around the 2045 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 2080 resistance. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is diverging with the MACD as it approaches the key trendline. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be an extra bearish signal for the market and another confluence for the sellers. The buyers will need the price to break decisively above the trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into the 2080 resistance. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is indeed losing momentum as the price action became rangebound as depicted by the blue box. There’s not much to do here other than waiting for the price to reach the key trendline. Upcoming EventsToday we will see the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold while weak figures should give it a boost.See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
- European equities open with marginal gains, looks to wrap up a stunning February monthby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 8:08 am
Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.1%This is very much European indices consolidating the gains for the month as stocks take a bit of a breather this week. Still, the DAX and CAC 40 are hanging at fresh record highs and that speaks to the stellar performance in February. Mind you, this is despite traders paring back ECB rate cut bets. Wild. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Switzerland February KOF leading indicator index 101.6 vs 102.0 expectedby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 8:00 am
Prior 101.5; revised to 102.5After a slight revision to the January figure, the index shows a slight decline in expected performance of the Swiss economy in six months’ time. This is very much third-rate data though, so there’s not much to really scrutinise. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Switzerland Q4 GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% q/q expectedby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 8:00 am
Prior +0.3%The Swiss economy is seen holding up well, growing modestly at the end of last year. Inflation developments remain the more critical factor influencing the SNB outlook though. And that seems to suggest that the central bank could start to lean towards rate cuts earlier than other major central banks at this stage. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Spain February preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +2.7% y/y expectedby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 8:00 am
Prior +3.4%HICP +2.9% vs +2.9% y/y expectedPrior +3.5%Headline annual inflation in Spain continues to gyrate around the 3% mark in recent months. The drop in February remains a comforting signal for the ECB. However, core annual inflation is unchanged from January at 3.6%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- France February preliminary CPI +2.9% vs +2.7% y/y expectedby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 7:45 am
Prior +3.1%HICP +3.1% vs +3.0% y/y expectedPrior +3.4%French consumer price inflation continues to slow down, although by less than expected in February. Services inflation in particular remains sticky at 3.1%, just down slightly from 3.2% in January. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- France Q4 final GDP +0.1% vs 0.0% q/q prelimby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 7:45 am
The French economy marginally expanded in Q4 2023, following a slight revision to the initial estimates. Domestic demand dropped by 0.1% on the quarter, with inventory changes also falling by 0.7%. Both are offset by net foreign trade, which was up 0.9%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Eurostoxx futures flat in early European tradingby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 7:17 am
German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.1%The overall risk mood remains rather tentative again today with US futures also seen flattish at the moment. European indices have been holding up well, with the DAX and CAC 40 still treading at or near record highs this week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Germany January retail sales -0.4% vs +0.5% m/m expectedby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 7:01 am
Prior -1.6%It looks like you can still count on German retail sales to miss on estimates to start the new year. The soft trend in consumption activity continues, as retail sales fell once again in January. In real terms, retail sales continue to struggle big time in Germany despite the rising trend in nominal terms. That reflects how inflation has been biting at household spending over the last two years: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Russell 2000 Technical Analysisby FL Contributors on February 29, 2024 at 6:57 am
Yesterday, the Russell 2000 retreated a bit from the highs as the market is waiting for the key catalysts in the next few days and weeks. Nothing has changed in the bigger picture as the Fed is still considering rate cuts conditional on the disinflationary trend being intact. The data has been good but what will matter the most is the next CPI report as that will tell us if the progress on inflation has indeed stalled, or worse, reversed. Before that we will get many important reports including the NFP, but as long as they remain benign the market will likely keep on rising. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 managed to reach the highs ones again as the buyers continue to target a break of the cycle high at 2073. We can notice that the bias is indeed bullish as the price has been printing higher lows into the cycle high. The sellers will need the price to make a new lower low to turn the trend around and start targeting the 1920 support. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been trading inside a rising channel. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the lower bound of the channel. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the 1920 support. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the recent pullback into the red 21 moving average. This is where the buyers are likely to step in with a defined risk below the moving average to position for a break of the cycle high. If the price were to continue lower though, the buyers will need to wait for the price to reach the bottom trendline for another opportunity. Upcoming EventsToday we will see the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
- European focus is on inflation data on leap dayby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 6:08 am
The dollar is down slightly on the day but it owes more to a drop in USD/JPY, following BOJ Takata’s remarks earlier here. Besides that, other dollar pairs are seeing lighter changes as broader market sentiment remains rather muted. US futures are flat while Treasury yields are not really hinting at much still so far this week.Looking to European trading, inflation data will come into focus and that will put the euro under the spotlight. We’ll be getting February data for Germany, France, and Spain. And that has the potential to influence the ECB outlook, depending on what we get.As things stand, traders are are seeing ~35% odds of an April rate cut with 90 bps worth of rate cuts priced in for the year.Besides that, just be wary of month-end flows that could hit at the London fix later in the day.0700 GMT – Germany January retail sales0745 GMT – France Q4 final GDP figures0745 GMT – France February preliminary CPI figures0800 GMT – Spain February preliminary CPI figures0800 GMT – Switzerland Q4 GDP figures0800 GMT – Switzerland February KOF leading indicator index0855 GMT – Germany February unemployment change, rate0930 GMT – UK January mortgage approvals, credit data1300 GMT – Germany February preliminary CPI figuresThat’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- BOJ’s Takata says not thinking of raising rates one after anotherby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 5:29 am
Don’t want to single out any policy step in mentioning “nimble responses”Gradual steps will be needed amid mixed circumstances surrounding smaller firmsWe need to keep some easing measures to some extentBut important for exit strategy to not be too complicatingUSD/JPY nudges up slightly on the headline remark from 149.75 to 149.95 but is still down 0.5% on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- USD/JPY down after Takata remarks but near-term levels continue to hold for nowby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 5:27 am
The hourly chart sums up quite nicely the price action over the last two weeks in USD/JPY:The pair has been somewhat consolidating just below and above the 150.00 mark recently. There has been very little incentive to push higher and that is not too surprising given the bond market developments as seen here.As such, USD/JPY is seeing a well-defined range between the lower limit near 149.70 and the upper limit around 150.80. And traders are continuing to respect that, even with the sharp drop in price today.BOJ’s Takata hinted at stronger wage hikes for this year and that saw the yen jump. USD/JPY is down 0.6% near the lows for the day but is not really able to break past the lower limit above.So, what’s next for the pair?There are a couple of moving parts to be mindful of currently. The first one is how Treasuries are going to continue to behave moving forward. While yields have been consolidating as of late, that might change when we get to more relevant US data. And that could be as soon as today with the PCE price index in consideration.The second is how markets are viewing the BOJ trade at the moment. The negative carry in shorting USD/JPY did not provide any good incentives to get on this trade too early. But if the central bank is firm on taking bolder steps after the spring wage negotiations in March to April, we might be at a turning point for the yen to gain much more ground from hereon.Considering the technical consolidation in USD/JPY above, a break of that range could see a strong move next. If it is to the downside, that will put the 100-day moving average into focus next – just below 148.00 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- BOJ’s Takata: I would call for a gear shift in policy, but not one that is going backwardsby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 5:12 am
Moderate recovery trend intact despite slowdown in capex, consumptionMonetary policy needs to remain consistent with the real economy, financial environmentHave not made up mind yet on monetary policy decisionWage hikes are broadening stronger than last yearNeed to watch outcome of spring wage talks after mid-MarchHis earlier comments here are certainly reverberating with the Japanese yen up 0.6% against the dollar currently. Is this the turning point whereby traders look to price in the BOJ’s next steps ahead of the spring wage negotiations results in March to April? I’ve mentioned previously that the negative carry in USD/JPY did not incentivise traders to get in too early. So, we might be moving closer to getting around that timing-wise. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Heads up: Germany states’ CPI readings due later todayby Justin Low on February 29, 2024 at 5:04 am
The estimates are calling for another drop in headline annual inflation in Germany for February. The reading is expected to decline to 2.6%, down from 2.9% in January. However, the monthly estimate is expected to show a 0.5% increase in price pressures.The annual reading is to keep with the disinflation trend and bolster the ongoing narrative from the ECB. However, the core reading might still prove to be sticky closer to 3% and therein lies the challenge for the central bank. It is one thing to get prices back to where we are now, but it could be a bigger challenge to get it down from 3% back to the 2% target.For now at least, they can use the latest developments as a stepping stone to begin rate cuts. But what happens if inflation continues to hold up in 2H 2024? Only time will tell.Here’s the agenda for today:0630 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia0900 GMT – Hesse0900 GMT – Bavaria0900 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg0900 GMT – Saxony1300 GMT – Germany national preliminary figuresDo note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- Forexlive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Yen jumps as Takata hints at policy tighteningby Adam Button on February 29, 2024 at 4:50 am
BOJ’s Takata: Momentum is rising in spring wage talksRBNZ’s Orr: The New Zealand economy has developed as we expectedJanuary Australia final retail sales +1.1% vs +1.5% expectedJapan January retail sales +2.3% y/y vs +2.3% expectedJapan January prelim industrial production -7.5% vs -7.3% expectedAustralia January housing credit +0.4% vs +0.4% priorAustralian Q4 capital expenditure +0.8% vs +0.5% expectedCoinbase services restored. Eyes on bitcoinLloyd’s February UK business barometer 42 vs 44 priorJapan’s Kanda told G20 that excessive volatility in FX is undesirableMarkets:Gold up $1 to $2035Japan 10-year yields up 2.1 to 0.72%WTI crude oil down 8 cents to $78.46Nikkei down 0.1%Bitcoin up 2.6% to $62,100JPY leads, USD and EUR lagBank of Japan board member Takata injected some life into Asian FX trading with a series of comments suggesting tighter policy in Japan, without specifying when. Yields on Japanese bonds rose and the yen jumped, with USD/JPY dropping by as much as 95 pips in steady selling after the comments.Otherwise, eyes were on bitcoin as it flirted with $60,000 for a time and then broke through in a rise to $62,500. It fell back to just above $61,000 from there but has gotten a second wave ahead of European trading.Australian data was mixed but the Aussie is 20 pips higher on the day as China sentiment improves and global equities climb. Some of the gains are also a bounce after the heavy selling yesterday.Otherwise, the leap day hasn’t brought much drama to Thursday’s trade. Be sure to check out our March seasonals. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
- Australian dollar creeps higher despite sluggish retail salesby Adam Button on February 29, 2024 at 4:31 am
The Australian dollar is the second-strongest currency so far today, behind only the surging Japanese yen.The gains in the Aussie are more of a function of the global backdrop than anything domestic. Today’s Australian data was a mixed back with retail sales falling short of estimates at 1.1% compared to 1.5% expected. Meanwhile, capital expenditure data was stronger at +0.8% compared to +0.5% expected with building capex particularly strong.Yesterday, the Australian dollar was dragged down with the kiwi after the RBNZ held rates and signalled no rate changes this year. The poor global risk backdrop also weighed.Today the mood is better with Chinese stocks higher and that’s led to a modest retracement. AUD/USD was last up 20 pips to 0.6518. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
- China stocks rebound strongly after yesterday’s routby Adam Button on February 29, 2024 at 3:28 am
Yesterday’s candle on the Shanghai Composite looked ominous. The exchange rose to the highest since November before abruptly reversing and closing at a four-day low.An outside candle like that is often a reversal signal but today, the index is up 1.2% in a strong start. It will take a rise aove 3030 to catalyze the upside but if so, it’s a good sign that the rally since early February will continue. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
- March forex seasonals: The tailwinds continue to blow on a few frontsby Adam Button on February 29, 2024 at 2:55 am
Over the long haul, there’s some alpha to be generated with the help of seasonals but February was also a reminder that momentum and fundamentals trump all. I warned at the start of the month that February was the worst month of the year for the Nasdaq. Well that didn’t turn out to be very useful as the AI boom continued and the NQ rose 5.1%.Other seasonal trades that I highlighted did better.Oil followed the seasonal trend (which continues through June) with a climb and Chinese stocks rebounded, just as the Feb seasonals foretold, leaving an interesting-looking candle on the Shanghai Composite monthly chart.Cable also followed the seasonal pattern with a moderate loss while the Australian dollar and copper weren’t able to capitalize on the seasonal tailwind (though it does continue to blow through March and April).For China stocks, the positive seasonals continue in March and April. In fact, most stock markets have a positive backdrop for March and the numbers would be better if not for the rout in March 2020. The hayday truly comes in April, which is the strongest seasonal month of the year for the S&P 500 and the MSCI World Index.On the FX side, March is the second-strongest month for USD/JPY but in light of comments from the BOJ’s Takata, I would be more focused on fundamentals.The euro shows some positive tendencies both against the US dollar and on the crosses.Overall, it’s not a huge seasonal month but some of the shine was taken off by COVID in 2020. The real trade may be setting up for April strength, which could coincide with stronger signs of central bank easing. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
- Markets on Edge Before US PCE Data; Outlook – Gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USDby Diego Colman on February 28, 2024 at 11:35 pm
This article provides an in-depth analysis of the outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and gold prices, exploring various potential scenarios that may manifest over the coming days and weeks.
- Euro Outlook: Signs of Fatigue Appear Ahead of Next Week’s ECB Meetingby Richard Snow on February 28, 2024 at 3:43 pm
The euro has shown signs of fatigue ahead of next week’s ECB meeting as institutional shorts pick up, attempting to narrow the gap
- US Dollar Trims Early Gains After US Q4 GDP Report, Gold Nudges Higherby Nick Cawley on February 28, 2024 at 1:58 pm
The US economy expanded by 3.2% according to the second estimate of US GDP released today, slightly below the initial estimate. In the third quarter the US economy expanded by 4.9%.
- Japanese Yen Slips, Market Seems Warier of Intervention Chancesby David Cottle on February 28, 2024 at 12:30 pm
The Japanese authorities appear more wary of involvement in FX markets than they once were, but entrenched Yen weakness may see it back in play.
- FTSE 100 and S&P 500 Consolidate while DAX 40 Trades in New Record Highsby Axel Rudolph on February 28, 2024 at 11:00 am
Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 ahead of the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP growth and PCE inflation prints.
- RBNZ Issues Dovish Hold and Aus Inflation Stands Firm, NZD Weakenedby Richard Snow on February 28, 2024 at 9:09 am
Markets have all but removed the likelihood of further rate hikes from the RBNZ after its dovish hold on the official cash rate. Aussie monthly inflation remains at 3.4%
- Euro Technical Analysis & Trade Setups – EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPYby Diego Colman on February 28, 2024 at 12:20 am
This article dissects the technical outlook for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, and EUR/JPY, scrutinizing price action dynamics and sentiment to glean insights into potential directional shifts.
- Gold Price Latest: XAU/USD Holds Gains, Awaits Key US Databy Richard Snow on February 27, 2024 at 7:00 pm
Gold managed to trade higher on Tuesday, maintaining its bullish run ahead of key US growth and PCE inflation data. Subdued gold volatility may soon lead to consolidation
- US Dollar Forecast: PCE Data Takes Center Stage; Setups on EUR/USD & GBP/USDby Diego Colman on February 27, 2024 at 5:00 pm
This article provides an in-depth analysis of the technical outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD, considering different possibilities ahead of key U.S. PCE data later in the week.
- Crude Oil Prices Slip Back Despite Red-Sea Supply Worriesby David Cottle on February 27, 2024 at 2:41 pm
Attacks on shipping by Houthi militia in solidarity with Gaza have boosted oil prices. It’s unclear whether any temporary ceasefire would halt them.
- Japanese Yen Outlook: Markets Prioritise CPI Beat over Lower Trending Pricesby Richard Snow on February 27, 2024 at 12:47 pm
Markets continue to favour the carry trade despite officials’ warnings around FX intervention. Inflation beat expectations but has declined every month since October
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Hits $57k, Ethereum (ETH/USD) Touches $3,275 as Buyers Dominate the Marketby Nick Cawley on February 27, 2024 at 9:08 am
The cryptocurrency market cap is currently just over $2.13 trillion, up nearly 7% yesterday, as the market turned a sea of green on heavy buying
- Gold Price Forecast: Confluence Resistance Stifles Bulls, Focus Shifts to US PCEby Diego Colman on February 26, 2024 at 11:50 pm
This article evaluates the short-term outlook for gold prices, examining various scenarios that may unfold later in the week following the release of U.S. core PCE data.
- US Dollar Eyes US PCE for Cues on Fed Path; EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Setupsby Diego Colman on February 26, 2024 at 5:30 pm
This article examines possible scenarios for the U.S. dollar ahead of key U.S. PCE data, scrutinizing the technical outlook for three major FX pairs: EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY.
- Ethereum Spot ETF – The Next Cab Off the Rank?by Nick Cawley on February 26, 2024 at 2:25 pm
Following the recent successful launch of more than ten Bitcoin ETFs, the investment community has turned its attention to the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum (ETH).
- British Pound Edges Up Again, US Data Will Run This Week’s Tradeby David Cottle on February 26, 2024 at 12:30 pm
Sterling has enjoyed a run higher thanks in part to some better news from its home economy. There’s not much on this week’s slate, which will leave the Dollar in charge.
- Aussie Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Finds Resistance Ahead of Inflation Databy Richard Snow on February 26, 2024 at 9:17 am
AUD/USD is coming off a string of eight consecutive days of gains but appears to have found resistance at a key longer-term level now that Chinese markets have eased
- Markets Week Ahead: USD, Euro and Gold Eye Inflation Data, Sterling Supportedby Richard Snow on February 25, 2024 at 6:00 pm
US growth and inflation data provide the pick of the bunch this week. CPI in Germany will influence ECB rate cut expectations and will a quiet week in the UK benefit GBP?
- US Dollar Forecast: US PCE to Guide Markets; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Setupsby Diego Colman on February 25, 2024 at 6:00 am
This article explores the technical outlook for three major U.S. dollar pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. In the piece, we also discuss potential market scenarios ahead of key U.S. PCE data.