Explore the latest stories, news and media from Areios and beyond.


  • Australian Dollar May Fall as Global Growth Fears Fester
    by Ilya Spivak on June 25, 2022 at 2:00 am

    The Australian Dollar has been trading as a barometer of the markets’ recession fears. It may fall in the week ahead as worries about global growth continue to fester.

  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Market senses a less-hawkish Fed
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 9:24 pm

    UMich final 5-year inflation expectations 3.1% vs 3.3% prelim US May new home sales 696K vs 588K expected Fed’s Daly: We don’t need to think about the end-point for the balance sheet yet Fed’s Daly: We want to bring down inflation without crippling growth Baker Hughes US oil rig count 594 vs 584 prior ECB’s Centeno: Flexible PEPP reinvestments are a powerful tool US Supreme Court overturns Roe V. Wade BOE’s Pill: Elevated UK inflation stems largely from external shocks Belgian June business sentiment -1.8 vs +1.8 prior ECB’s De Guindos: Economy losing momentum according to PMIs Markets: S&P 500 up 115 points, or 3.0%, to 3914 US 10-year yields up 6.8 bps to 3.14% WTI crude oil up $2.79 to $107.66 Gold up $4 to $1826 AUD leads, JPY lags After hiking by 75 basis points instead of the 50 bps he long-ascribed to, Powell cited the jump in inflation expectations in the UMich consumer sentiment survey as a factor. Well, he might have waited until the final data was out, as the numbers were lowered.The market jumped on that and the odds of just a 50 bps hike in July roughly doubled to 27%. That sentiment weighed on the US dollar and boosted stocks as well with some particularly large moves in the commodity currencies.CAD was doubly boosted by a rebound in oil that left crude down just $2 on the week — a far cry from the mid-week crash. After touching 1.3000 in Asia, USD/CAD finished on the lows at 1.2880.AUD/USD was similarly strong and found some breathing room above the double bottom 0.6833 in a climb to 0.6937. The growing problem is the push-and-pull in bonds. The better tone on risk assets took 10-year yields from a low of 3.03% to 3.14%, with less worry about a recession starting to mean a shift back to worries about inflation. That’s a tenuous dynamic that leaves a narrow window for an extension of this price action.The US dollar was broadly weak but made some progress against the yen.Curiously, the pound was able to find few bids despite the positive risk tone. Some of that relates back to worries about growth in the eurozone. For its part, the euro managed to climb 30 pips on the session.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • S&P 500 closes at the highs as last week’s big drop is erased
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 8:15 pm

    On the day: S&P 500 3.0% Nasdaq +3.2% Russell 2000+3.0% DJIA +2.6% On the week: S&P 500 +6.4% Nasdaq +7.5% DJIA +5.4% Last week was the worst one for US stocks since March 2020 but this week all those declines were wiped out. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Gold Prices Eye Bullish Turnaround, Silver’s Outlook Clouded by Recession Fears
    by Diego Colman on June 24, 2022 at 8:00 pm

    Gold and silver tend to show a close correlation, but their performance could begin to diverge as rising recession odds cloud the outlook for some precious metals with industrial applications.

  • Fed’s Daly: We want to bring down inflation without crippling growth
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 7:59 pm

    If supply continues to fall short and inflation stays high, we will need to do more, if not we can do lessLikely to be some slowing in economy but not a recessionWe have the tools to bring down inflation, it’s our number one priorityHow much additional tightening depends on factors beyond the Fed’s control This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • S&P 500 extends gains to 100 points
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 7:44 pm

    The S&P 500 has extended to its best levels of the day as trading winds down for the week. It’s been an impressive rebound in a holiday-shortened US trading week. Today’s gain has pushed the index into the mid-June gap. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Oil rebounds to settle at $107.62 but still finishes lower for the second consecutive week
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 7:10 pm

    WTI crude oil climbed $3.35 to settle at $107.62 while brent finished the week at $113.12. Both are lower compared to last Friday’s close and that’s the second week in a row of declines but it follows a streak of seven consecutive weekly gains. Overall, crude is right in the middle of the range since the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the bulls should be encouraged by that given the recession fears, the OPEC+ increase and the SPR release. As for OPEC+, they will meet again on Thursday but a report this week citing five sources indicated the status quo. A bigger question is what happens beyond August when the scheduled increases run out. Nigeria has been underproducing but said it hopes to have its oil online quickly. Libya’s production is inconsistent. Hopes for an end to the Iran nuclear deal are nearly non-existent. For me, the dominant feature on the chart is the series of higher lows that’s intact so long as crude stays above $95. The buying interest today shows ongoing tightness in the physical market but a sharp economic slowdown could reverse that in the months ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • A pattern of explosions of volatility in bitcoin, then nothing
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 6:29 pm

    Generally in markets, volatility breeds volatility. In bitcoin lately though, there’s a period of huge moves followed by periods of relative dormancy. For this entire week, the range has been $19,586 to $21,696. For a normal asset, that 9.7% range is wide but it’s miniscule compared to the recent norm in BTC. It’s a tough one to understand and what makes it especially confounding is that something similar happened in April and May. I suspect there’s some kind of natural stabilization mechanism in play here, or it’s a strange coincidence.In any case, I think the trade here now is to wait for a clear break of the range and go with it. That’s a bit tough to do on the downside because of that quick spike low on the 3AC liquidation. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Fed’s Daly: We don’t need to think about the end-point for the balance sheet yet
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 5:31 pm

    Why wouldn’t you want to proactively think about a multi-trillion dollar balance sheet? In any case, Daly is a soldier not a general. She’s a vote or a mouthpiece when Powell needs one. Here’s what else she’s saying: We we will communicate as we get closer to balance sheet endpoint Maybe start talking about balance sheet runoff ending in 2024 Does not see a recession This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Baker Hughes US oil rig count 594 vs 584 prior
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 5:02 pm

    Natural gas rigs 157 vs 154 priorThe outlok for oil and gas in the years ahead depends on how quickly rigs can ramp up compared to how quickly DUCs are drawn down. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • USD/CAD turns higher as oil gives back some gains
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 4:52 pm

    WTI crude oil is trading at $106.52 from a high of $108.58. The turn in oil has led to a bounce in USD/CAD after it successfully held 1.2900. The pair stands to finish the week lower as the US dollar declines badly. That’s a bit counterintuitive given the weakness in oil and natural gas but the market is more worried about rates than the ebb and flow of energy prices. Looking at the USD/CAD chart, I’m concerned about the weak rejection of the double top at 1.3080. The pair is languishing around that level and could take another run (and break through) the next time there’s a strong USD bid. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • EUR/GBP: Renewed Brexit fears may start to weigh on sterling – Danske Bank
    on June 24, 2022 at 4:09 pm

    Brexit Tensions are increasing and may weigh on the British pound in coming months, warn analysts at Danske Bank. They also point out that relative in

  • Pound Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Unflattering GBP Set to Continue
    by Richard Snow on June 24, 2022 at 4:00 pm

    Sterling ends the week slightly higher but price action over the last 72 was essentially flat. Crucial PCE inflation next week and US, UK final GDP figures

  • BOJ not signaling a lack of tolerance for JPY weakness; USD/JPY to remain elevated – CIBC
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 3:59 pm

    CIBC Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and sees the pair remains elevated in the near-term. “It was notable that the recent BoJ policy statement included a rare FX reference. The BoJ detailed that “It is necessary to pay due attention to developments in financial and foreign exchange markets and their impact on Japan’s economic activity and prices.” The currency reference underlines that the BoJ is not totally immune to JPY weakness,” CIBC notes.  “Although the monetary authorities are paying attention to the JPY, they are not necessarily signaling a lack of tolerance for JPY weakness, rather they are looking to avoid disorderly moves. As the BoJ signaled that 10-year JGB yields will continue to be capped UST-JGB spreads point towards USD/JPY remaining elevated,” CIBC adds.  The Japanese CPI report released earlier today showed headline prices up 2.5% compared to 2.9% expected. For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • EUR/USD could still dip back to the recent low of 1.0350 – Rabobank
    on June 24, 2022 at 3:57 pm

    The EUR/USD is about to end the week hovering around 1.0550, with a modest gain. Analysts at Rabobank continue to see the risk of a dip back to the ye

  • European equity close: French stocks post their best day in months
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 3:35 pm

    Stoxx 600 +2.6% German DAX +1.7% UK FTSE 100 +2.7% French CAC +3.4% — best day in more than three months Italy MIB +2.3% Spain IBEX +1.8%On the week:Stoxx 600 +2.2%German DAX -0.1%UK FTSE 100 +2.6%French CAC +3.2%Italy MIB +2.6%Spain IBEX +1.3% Even with the best day in months, the weekly candle in the CAC still doesn’t cover last week’s decline. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • USD/CAD stumbles towards 1.2900 on higher oil prices and a soft US dollar
    on June 24, 2022 at 3:23 pm

    The USD/CAD slides from daily highs around 1.3000, set to finish the week with losses, amidst an upbeat market mood as traders scaled back aggressive

  • WTI crude oil is $1.40 away from finishing the week higher
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 3:06 pm

    Oil has been a crazy trade this week with the commodity getting pounded — seemingly without an oil-specific catalyst — only to start a bounce on Wednesday. Crude ended last week at $109.56 and sank as low as $101.53 on Wednesday. Now it’s trading up $4 today to $108.19. If it can gain another $1.40, it could finish the week in positive territory. Even now, there’s an incredible disconnect in the market. Energy company stocks have been brutalized this week, with some falling 20% and yet the commodity is scarely negative. Some of that speaks to the drop in natural gas prices but it’s largely about recession worries. In terms of price action, the slow climb followed by a sharp correction is a classic bull-market signal. It’s the old ‘up the elevator, down the escalator’ move. I thought this note from RBC on Wednesday was particularly prescient. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Currency Carry Trade: What is it and how does it work?
    by Richard Snow on June 24, 2022 at 2:50 pm

    Learn how to calculate and implement currency carry trades in your forex trading strategy.

  • ECB’s Centeno: Flexible PEPP reinvestments are a powerful tool
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 2:43 pm

    We don’t see inflation expectations deanchoringSees no specific spread target for ECB crisis toolNew tool needed so monetary policy can workSome ECB members had floated a spread of 150 bps as normal between German and Italy yields. Currently, Italian 10s are at 3.56% while German bunds are at 1.46%. The risk for a new ECB program is that it goes offside with monetary financing laws. I also worry that they end up bringing a knife to a gunfight. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • AUD/USD extends gains to 50 pips as the risk trade rallies
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 2:37 pm

    The Australian dollar is challenging the June 22 high in a pop after the UMich consumer sentiment survey showed that inflation expectations weren’t as high as the Fed thought.That’s led to broad selling in the US dollar and a jump in US stocks.The odds of a 50 bps hike in July rather than 75 bps have jumped but are bouncing around as the market struggles to decide what will come next. The odds sit at 22% from a high of 29% a short time ago.What’s more important is the terminal rate that the Fed sees. It’s in the 3.50-3.75% range at the moment but that’s actually up from earlier.There’s a reflexivity ongoing in the market as well. The better mood has boosted oil prices but that’s feeding back into bonds yields (higher) and could temper stocks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Gores Guggenheim Stock News and Forecast: PSNY trades down 11% in first session
    on June 24, 2022 at 2:25 pm

    Gores Guggenheim (GGPI) stock is no more from Friday, June 24, as the SPAC deal with Polestar has been completed. GGPI stock had it last day of tradin

  • US Supreme Court overturns Roe V. Wade
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 2:24 pm

    The decision from the US Supreme Court eliminates the constitutional right to an abortion.This is not market moving and a dissenting opinion was leaked so it’s not a big surprise. It will add to the division in the US. Thirteen states have ‘trigger’ laws that ban abortion automatically with this decision.The text of the decision is here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • A 50 basis point hike in July is back on the table
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 2:15 pm

    The Fed funds market is now pricing in a 29% chance of a 50 basis point hike at the July FOMC meeting, with the remainder at 75 bps. That’s up from 13% a day ago. A few things have shifted the odds: 1) Energy prices have declined There have been large drops in oil and natural gas prices. I don’t think the Fed looks at that month-to-month but if prices of oil and natural gas stay where they are right now it will mean that June/July headline inflation will come down. 2) The UMich revision The Fed hit the panic button on the prelim UMich long-term inflation expectations data. The final number is back within the usual range. It was an indicator that Powell and others specifically cited as a reason to shift.  3) Market based inflation expectations The market is sensing a rising chance of a recession and that’s pushed down yields and real yields. The Fed may have a chance to go slower on rate hikes.Overall, it’s still a long ways until the July 27 FOMC with many economic indicators to come. But what once looked like a sure thing is suddenly up for debate. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Vroom Stock Forecast: VRM continues advance on Friday
    on June 24, 2022 at 2:11 pm

    Vroom (VRM) stock has continued advancing on Friday a day after retail splurged and pushed shares up 36.4% to $1.61 a share. At the time of writing sh

  • US: UOM Consumer Sentiment plunges to record low of 50 (final) in June
    on June 24, 2022 at 2:09 pm

    The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 50 in June’s final reading from 50.2 in the flash estimate. This marked the lowest p

  • US: New Home Sales rise by 10.7% in May
    on June 24, 2022 at 2:04 pm

    The data published by the US Census Bureau showed on Friday that New Home Sales in the US rose by 10.7% in May to 696,000 following April’s contractio

  • United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50, below expectations (50.2) in June
    on June 24, 2022 at 2:00 pm

    United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 50, below expectations (50.2) in June

  • United States New Home Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.588M) in May: Actual (0.696M)
    on June 24, 2022 at 2:00 pm

    United States New Home Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.588M) in May: Actual (0.696M)

  • United States New Home Sales Change (MoM) up to 10.7% in May from previous -16.6%
    on June 24, 2022 at 2:00 pm

    United States New Home Sales Change (MoM) up to 10.7% in May from previous -16.6%

  • US May new home sales 696K vs 588K expected
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 1:58 pm

    Prior was 591K (revised to 629K) Sales change +10.7% vs -16.6% priorSupply 7.7 months vs 8.3 months priorMedian price 449K vs 390.4K a year ago KB Home and Lennar reported earnings this week and the commentary highlighted a slowdown but both were still optimistic about the outlook and KHB reiterated guidance for the year. US 30-year yields are down nearly 30 bps from the peak last week. This is an important indicator and a sign that the optimism we’ve seen from home builders isn’t exactly misplaced. Granted, sales have come down a lot but some of that is builders throttling because of supply chain issues and/or not selling until the home is nearly complete. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • UMich final 5-year inflation expectations 3.1% vs 3.3% prelim
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 1:58 pm

    Prelim reading was 3.3% Prior reading was 3.0% 1-year inflation 5.3% vs 5.4% prelim Prior 1-year inflation 5.3% Sentiment final 50.0 vs 50.4 prelim Current conditions final 53.8 vs 55.4 prelim Expectations final 47.5 vs 46.8 prelim Fed Chair Powell cited the jump in inflation expectations as a big reason why the FOMC shifted to 75 bps from 50 bps.Now it’s been revisd back to where it was for most of the past year. What an embarrassment.For what it’s worth, he did flag the chance that it could be revised:So, if you look at a broad range of inflation expectations, so you’ve got the public, you’ve got surveys of the public and of experts and you’ve also got market based. And I think if you look across that broad range of data, what you see is that expectations are still in the place, very much in the place, where short-term inflation is going to be high, but comes down sharply over the next couple of years. And that’s really where inflation expectations are and also, as you get away from this episode, they get back down close to 2 percent. And so, this is really very important to us that that remain the case. And I think if you look for most measures, most of the time, that’s what you see. If we even see a couple of indicators that bring that into question, we take that very seriously. We do not take this for granted, we take it very seriously. So the preliminary Michigan reading, it’s a preliminary reading, it might be revised, nonetheless it was quite eye catching and we noticed that. We also noticed that the Index of Common Inflation Expectations at the Board has moved up after being pretty flat for a long time, so we’re watching that and we’re thinking this is something we need to take seriously. And that is one of the factors as I mentioned. One of the actors in our deciding to move ahead with 75 basis points today was what we saw in inflation expectations.It would be funny if the Fed panicked on the prelim UMich inflation expectations and hiked 75, only for it to be revised back lower on Friday pic.twitter.com/KSG53VFb9u— ForexLive (@ForexLive) June 21, 2022 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD recaptures critical trendline resistance at 1.2275
    on June 24, 2022 at 1:49 pm

    GBP/USD – 1.2263.. Trading cable was tricky in Thur’s ‘roller-coaster’ session. Although price fell in tandem with euro to 1.2171 in Europe, an upside

  • DAX, DOW and FTSE Rise as Investors Rethink Path of Inflation and Rate Hikes
    by Zain Vawda on June 24, 2022 at 1:45 pm

    Stocks Rise as Bond Rally Boosts Technology Stocks.

  • Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD rebounds from multi-week low, not out of the woods yet
    on June 24, 2022 at 1:43 pm

    Silver reversed a knee-jerk slide to a six-week low and was last seen trading with only modest intraday losses, around the $20.90-$20.85 region during

  • BOE’s Pill: Elevated UK inflation stems largely from external shocks
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 1:40 pm

    Inflation from external shocks rather than excess money growth As long as we undertake any bond sale in a gradual, predictable and well-communicated manner in a reasonably benign environment, we can still use bank rate as the marginal instrumentThere is no news in my assessment for monetary policy Gable is up 15 points to 1.2275 today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • BOE’s Pill: High UK inflation stems largely from impact of external shocks
    on June 24, 2022 at 1:38 pm

    “Elevated level of UK inflation stems largely from the impact of external shocks, rather than excess money growth,” Bank of England Chief Economist Hu

  • USD/TRY: Bulls remain vigilant above the 17.00 mark
    on June 24, 2022 at 1:36 pm

    The Turkish currency extends its march south for yet another session and keeps USD/TRY bid near the area of YTD peaks above 17.30 on Friday. USD/TRY n

  • Belgian June business sentiment -1.8 vs +1.8 prior
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 1:21 pm

    This is a leading indicator and it’s pointing in the same direction as many other indicators in Europe. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • GBP/USD eases from daily high, struggles to find acceptance above 1.2300 mark
    on June 24, 2022 at 1:17 pm

    The GBP/USD pair built on the previous day’s bounce from the vicinity of the weekly low, around the 1.2170-1.2160 area and gained some positive tracti

  • S&P 500 futures up 30 points ahead of the open
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 1:12 pm

    Last week was the worst one for US stocks since March 2020 but with a gain today it will mark a solid shortened week for US stocks, including gains in 3 of the 4 trading days. The S&P 500 is set for a 30 point gain at the open, building on the strong finish in yesterday’s trading. The index finished up 36 points yesterday, led by tech. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • AMC Entertainment Stock News and Forecast: Has AMC bottomed out yet?
    on June 24, 2022 at 1:03 pm

    AMC stock is holding recent gains despite falling over 4% on Thursday. AMC so far appears to have bottomed out last week along with much of the equity

  • Revlon Stock: The squeeze is over, move on
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:59 pm

    We told you so (sorry, just couldn’t resist). In what was not one of our harder calls, we said on Thursday, “In the meantime, some pessimism is likely

  • Final UMich consumer sentiment survey highlights the US economic calendar
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 12:52 pm

    Fed Chair Powell cited two economic data points for the shift to 75 basis points at last week’s meeting: CPI and the inflation expectations data in the UMich survey. The survey, however, was only preliminary data and could be revised. It showed 3.3% inflation in the 5-10 year range, up from 3.0%. At times that series is revised afterwards so it will be one to watch.Otherwise, the calendar features May new home sales and a speech from the FEd’s Daly at 4 pm ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Vinco Ventures Stock News and Forecast: BBIG stock sets new date for Cryptyde spin-off
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:43 pm

    Vinco Ventures is back again on the trail of the Cryptyde spin-off as it announced a new date of June 29. This was previously delayed, so the date bei

  • Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD surrenders modest recovery gains, flirts with one-week low
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:40 pm

    Gold staged modest recovery from the $1,821 area, or over a one-week low touched this Friday, albeit struggled to capitalize on the move. The XAUUSD h

  • ECB’s De Guindos: Economy losing momentum according to PMIs
    by Adam Button on June 24, 2022 at 12:35 pm

    PMIs see difficult months aheadYesterday’s eurozone composite PMI from S&P Global fell to 51.9 from 54.8 with both services and manufacturing slumping much more than anticipated.More:Asked about reports about the sterilisation of anti-fragmentation purchases, says ‘I wouldn’t always believe media reports’I expect ECB to reduce balance sheet over the next five yearsThis is an interesting comment because a recent report said the ECB would be selling German bonds in order to buy periphery bonds in the anti-fragmentation plan. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Wake Up Wall Street (SPY) (QQQ): Rally to carry on, but for how long?
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:34 pm

    Here is what you need to know on Friday, June 24: Bond yields continue to look more accommodative for equities, and this equity rally continued yester

  • EUR/USD Price Analysis: Sustained gains seen above 1.0670/80
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:28 pm

    EUR/USD resumes the upside bias past the 1.0500 mark following Thursday’s decent pullback. So far, and as long as the 4-month line in the 1.0670/80 ba

  • Fed’s Bullard: Market fully pricing in idea we are getting rates to 3.5% by end-2022
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:20 pm

    “We need to frontload rate hikes, get inflation under control in short order,” St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Friday,

  • ForexLive European FX news wrap: Calmer tones going into the final stretch of the week
    by Justin Low on June 24, 2022 at 12:09 pm

    Headlines:EUR/CHF sticks with gradual descend to parityECB rate hike bets cool further on the weekECB’s de Guindos: The primary target for the ECB is inflationFed’s Bullard: If all goes according to plan, inflation will come downRBA’s Lowe: Not expecting a recession but there is a narrow path back to low inflationUK May retail sales -0.5% vs -0.7% m/m expectedGermany June Ifo business climate index 92.3 vs 92.9 expectedIfo economist says worry lines in Germany economy are getting biggerMarkets:CHF leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.7%US 10-year yields up 5.5 bps to 3.125%Gold up 0.1% to $1,824.63WTI crude up 1.5% to $105.87Bitcoin up 1.6% to $21,142It was a quiet session in terms of headlines mostly but we did get some notable data releases as well as some central bank commentary but neither did much to shake up the market mood.We’re seeing a fairly calmer risk tone creep in today with equities holding higher and bond yields also now picking up a little ahead of US trading. The dollar was initially weaker but is now trading more mixed as the yen falls back a little after yesterday’s advance.EUR/USD moved up from 1.0525 to 1.0555 before coming back down now to 1.0520 levels. USD/JPY moved down initially to 134.40 but have gradually climbed during the session to 135.10-20 levels at the moment. The weekly close will be one to watch to see if the pair can keep a break above the 135.00 mark.Meanwhile, the franc continues to go from strength to strength with EUR/CHF falling to its lowest since March at 1.0060 now and looking poised for a push towards parity next.Commodity currencies are slightly buoyed by the better risk mood with USD/CAD down 0.2% to 1.2970 and AUD/USD up 0.2% to 0.6905, though the changes are hardly notable from a technical standpoint.It looks like stocks are trying to bookend the week with gains but the pitfalls are yet to be averted completely. This week has been about recognition of recession risks and we’ll have to see how the market balances that along with central bank tightening expectations in the weeks ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

  • RBA’s Lowe: Would expect next rate hike discussion to be between 25 bps or 50 bps
    by Justin Low on June 24, 2022 at 12:01 pm

    RBA not driven by market expectationsOnly in August will there be another inflation data pointRBA will look at that and then take stock from thereLowe is saying that he doesn’t really care about what markets are pricing in and says that any surprise reaction is not a good thing nor a bad thing in the central bank’s view. But he is basically ruling out a 75 bps rate hike with the remarks above at least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

  • USD/CHF drifts back closer to monthly low, bears now await break below mid-0.9500s
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:01 pm

    The USD/CHF pair struggled to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick and met with a fresh supply near the 0.9630-0.9635 region on the last day of th

  • Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.69%, above expectations (0.62%) in June
    on June 24, 2022 at 12:00 pm

    Brazil Mid-month Inflation came in at 0.69%, above expectations (0.62%) in June

  • ECB’s de Guindos: Euro area could experience negative growth in 2023
    on June 24, 2022 at 11:58 am

    European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Friday that it was possible to see negative growth in the euro area in 2023, as rep

  • Fed’s Bullard: Rate hikes will slow economy to trend pace of growth
    on June 24, 2022 at 11:49 am

    St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Friday that he expects the Fed’s rate hikes to slow the economy to the trend pace of gr

  • RBA’s Lowe: Not expecting a recession in Australia
    on June 24, 2022 at 11:45 am

    Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Friday that he does not expect a recession in Australia but acknowledged that there is a narrow

  • India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $596.46B to $590.59B in June 17
    on June 24, 2022 at 11:31 am

    India FX Reserves, USD fell from previous $596.46B to $590.59B in June 17

  • EUR/USD Update: Recession Fears, as Reduced Russian Gas Grips Germany
    by Richard Snow on June 24, 2022 at 11:30 am

    Germany warned that manufacturers may have to shut down this winter if gas supply doesn’t improve. EU leaders discuss life without Russia at today’s meeting in Brussels

  • USD/JPY recovers modest intraday losses, retakes 135.00 amid risk-on/rising US bond yields
    on June 24, 2022 at 11:18 am

    The USD/JPY pair attracted some buying near the 134.35 region on Friday and recovered over 85 pips from the daily low. Spot price climbed back above t

  • US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Extra consolidation looks likely
    on June 24, 2022 at 11:17 am

    DXY fades Thursday’s advance and trades with modest losses at the end of the week, always within the broad side-lined theme above 104.00. Ideally, the

  • Crude Oil Update: Brent Finds Support as Focus Shifts to OPEC+ Next Week
    by Warren Venketas on June 24, 2022 at 9:01 am

    Brent crude prices look to be making a comeback as the OPEC+ meeting looms. Crude oil conditions remains tight in spite of recent downside.

  • Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Bearish as Yields and Oil Drops
    by Justin McQueen on June 24, 2022 at 8:01 am

    Japanese Yen Rises Across the Board as Softer Yields and Oil Prices Underpin.

  • 4 Effective Trading Indicators Every Trader Should Know
    by Tyler Yell, CMT on June 24, 2022 at 4:30 am

    Discover the best forex indicators for a simple strategy: Moving Average, MACD, Stochastic and RSI.

  • The Most Volatile Currency Pairs and How to Trade Them
    by Rich Dvorak on June 24, 2022 at 2:30 am

    Find out what currency pairs may show the most volatility, and how you can tailor your strategy to capitalize on market volatility.

  • When Can S&P 500 Volatility Break a Stock Diversification Strategy? Analyzing the VIX
    by Daniel Dubrovsky on June 24, 2022 at 12:30 am

    When S&P 500 volatility is too high, a stock sector diversification strategy can fail. Using the VIX, what levels should traders watch for to identify this risk and what can be done about it?

  • AUD/USD Eyes Rebound After Iron Ore Catches Bid on President Xi Commentary
    by Thomas Westwater on June 23, 2022 at 11:00 pm

    The risk-sensitive Australian Dollar fell overnight despite a rebound on Wall Street and higher iron ore prices. Japan’s CPI print is in focus as the APAC session wraps up the trading week.

  • Gold Price Outlook Mired by Failure to Test 50-Day SMA
    by David Song on June 23, 2022 at 9:30 pm

    Lack of momentum to test the 50-Day SMA ($1864) may undermine the recent rebound in the price of gold as the moving average reflects a negative slope.

  • S&P 500 Rises Despite Disastrous US Economic Data, but Recession Fears May Cap Gains
    by Diego Colman on June 23, 2022 at 8:35 pm

    S&P 500 stages a late day rally, after a subdued performance for most of the session, but gains may be short-lived amid deteriorating U.S. economic data.

  • EU Races to Regulate Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies as Market Implodes
    by Darrell Delamaide on June 23, 2022 at 5:00 pm

    The three bodies involved in negotiating European Union rules on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies hope to wind up work on the Markets in Crypto-Assets legislation by the end of June as pressure i…

  • Central Bank Watch: BOE & ECB Interest Rate Expectations Update
    by Christopher Vecchio, CFA on June 23, 2022 at 4:05 pm

    Rates markets have discounted several more rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank.

  • The Most Volatile Currency Pairs and How to Trade Them
    by Rich Dvorak on June 23, 2022 at 3:30 pm

    Find out what currency pairs may show the most volatility, and how you can tailor your strategy to capitalize on market volatility.

  • US Dollar Softens After Weak US Business Activity Data Raises Recession Odds
    by Diego Colman on June 23, 2022 at 2:05 pm

    U.S. composite PMI falls to 51.2 in June from 53.6 in May, reaching the lowest level in five months, a sign that economic activity is slowing rapidly and a recession could be near.

  • DAX, DOW and FTSE Mixed as Global Growth Signals Slowdown
    by Zain Vawda on June 23, 2022 at 1:37 pm

    Strike Two, Can Fed Chair Powell Allay Global Recession Fears?

  • NZD/USD Technical Setup: Price Action Approaches Key Support
    by Richard Snow on June 23, 2022 at 11:40 am

    The NZD/USD pair has come under pressure and now trades towards a key long-term pivot point.