Explore the latest stories, news and media from Areios and beyond.

  • ECB’s Kazaks says mustn’t allow inflation to remain above 2% into 2026
    by Eamonn Sheridan on June 16, 2024 at 8:45 pm

    European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks (governor of Latvia’s central bank). He was pretty blunt on the policy backdrop, saying that the Bank must not allow inflation to remain above 2% into 2026.ECB projections are that the 2% target inflation rate will only be met towards the end of 2025. Kazaks is clearly concerned about delays beyond this.He said that while uncertainty remains high, his policymaker colleagues are are confident that disinflation is proceeding, which allows a less restrictive policy approach. But, that could change if upward price pressures were more stubborn:“Currently I think we are still on the path to 2% in the second half of 2025, and I would really hope that we would do it by that time,” “We should not drag this problem into 2026” “If data show that reaching our target is being pushed out beyond 2025, then of course the restriction level needs to be maintained for longer so that we can avert those kind of outcomes.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Economic calendar in Asia Monday, 17 June 2024 – China Retail sales & Industrial output
    by Eamonn Sheridan on June 16, 2024 at 8:36 pm

    Prior to the regular monthly economic activity data covering Retail sales, Industrial output and investment we get House Price data. Efforts continue to stabilise China’s property sector, we’ll get a guide to their relative success with this data today. As for the ‘activity’ data there are some expectations that retailing will have picked up in May after a disappointing April when they came in at +2.3% y/y vs. the +3.8% expected. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Trade ideas thread – Monday, 17 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
    by Eamonn Sheridan on June 16, 2024 at 8:36 pm

    Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • ECB policymakers have no plan to discuss emergency purchases of French bonds
    by Eamonn Sheridan on June 16, 2024 at 8:21 pm

    Reuters citing 5 unnamed sources for this info: European Central Bank policymakers have not discussed emergency bond purchases for FranceHave no immediate plan to debate using TPI for franceSome ECB policymakers would wait until new French govt is formed before any discussion about TPI** What is TPI? ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) allows it to buy unlimited amounts of bonds from a country. This could be done if a country came under excess market pressure. In the case of France the context is the snap election called by the President last weekend (Sunday the 9th June ICYMI). This has seen a sell-off of French bonds due to market fears over a far-right government winning the election. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Fed’s Kashkari says its reasonable that rate cut could come in December
    by Eamonn Sheridan on June 16, 2024 at 8:10 pm

    Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari spoke on Sunday, US time, with US media, CBS’ “Face the Nation”. We need to see more evidence to convince US inflation is heading to 2%US economy is stronger than in other countries that are cutting ratesJob market has performed better than expectedMay be more cooling in labor market yet to come, hope it will be modestReasonable that rate cut could come in DecemberWe are in a very good position to take our time, get more data, before making a decision on rateMedian projection is for one cut, that’s likely to be toward end of the year We are in a high pressure economy in some dimensions, but some signs it’s coolingNet effect of immigration in long-run on inflation is hard to judgeBest thing Fed can do for housing is to get inflation downKashkari flipped to more hawkish than his colleagues much earlier than they did. Given the developments seen in US inflation this year he was correct to do so. He is dialling back that hawkishness a touch but he has clearly not leaped onto any September rate cut bandwagon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 17 June 2024
    by Eamonn Sheridan on June 16, 2024 at 8:04 pm

    As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.Indicative rates:EUR/USD 1.0700USD/JPY 157.35GBP/USD 1.2688USD/CHF 0.8910USD/CAD 1.3737AUD/USD 0.6620NZD/USD 0.6133There is a wee bit of news about over the weekend, I’ll BRB with that separately (for example, Fed’s Kashkart said its reasonable that a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut could come in December). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Newsquawk Week Ahead: Highlights include BoE, SNB, US retail sales
    by Newsquawk Analysis on June 16, 2024 at 3:54 pm

    Week Ahead 17-21st June:Mon: PBoC MLF, Chinese Activity Data (May), EZ Wages and Labour Costs (Q1)Tue: RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, EZ Final CPI (May), German ZEW Survey (Jun), US Retail Sales (May), Japanese Trade Balance (May)Wed: BoC Minutes, BCB Announcement, UK Inflation (May), New Zealand GDP (Q1)Thu: BoE Announcement, PBoC LPR Announcement, SNB Announcement & Press Conference, Norges Bank Announcement & Press Conference, German Producer Prices (May), US Philly Fed Survey (Jun)Fri: Australian PMIs (Jun), Japanese CPI (May), UK Retail Sales (May), EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Jun), Canadian PPI (May)Note: Previews are listed in day orderPBoC MLF/LPR (Mon/Thu):The PBoC will conduct its Medium-term Lending Facility operation early next week where the central bank is likely to keep the 1-year MLF rate unchanged at 2.50%, while it is also anticipated to maintain the benchmark 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates several days later at their current levels of 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively. As a reminder, the central bank maintained its 1-year MLF rate during last month’s operation where it opted to fully rollover the CNY 125bln of funds maturing and it also refrained from any adjustments to the benchmark Loan Prime Rates with the 1-year and 5-year LPRs unsurprisingly kept at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively. The central bank’s actions since then have continued to point to a lack of urgency for adjustments in short-term funding rates as it has mostly kept its daily open market operations to modest amounts of CNY 2bln aside from the increased liquidity injections a few days heading into month-end, while the recent slew of mixed data releases also supports the case for no adjustments including trade figures as exports in May topped forecasts with growth of 7.6% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 1.5%) and imports disappointed at 1.8% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 8.4%). Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI missed estimates and unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory at 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.4) but Caixin Manufacturing PMI surpassed forecasts and improved to 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.4). Furthermore, recent inflation data was also varied as after it showed softer-than-expected consumer price growth and a narrower-than-anticipated deflation in factory gate prices. Nonetheless, future policy action cannot be ruled out given the economic concerns in China amid trade-related frictions, as well as the ongoing deterioration in the property sector and developer debt crisis that has resulted in defaults for some of the largest developers including Evergrande which was ordered to liquidate earlier this year and with several others facing winding up petitions. However, an immediate reduction in rates seems unlikely given the efforts by Chinese authorities to support the property sector including the easing of restrictions by several major cities in China, while the central bank had pledged to improve the macro-prudential management of real estate finance, as well as held a meeting on pushing re-lending work for affordable housing and will support state firms to buy existing homes.Chinese Activity Data (Mon): Retail Sales are expected to be 3.0% (prev. 2.3%), Industrial Output at 6.4% (prev. 6.7%), and Urban Investments at 4.2% (prev. 4.2%). In April, Industrial production was a bright spot, with value-added industrial activity rising to 6.7% Y/Y in April, driven by high-tech manufacturing and auto production. Using the Chinese manufacturing PMI data as a proxy for industrial output, manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell in May, with the official PMI dropping to 49.5 from 50.4 in April, below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. Desks have suggested the May data may be a temporary blip, with a potential improvement expected in June as new government policies, including a property rescue plan and issuance of special sovereign bonds, start to take effect. The IMF revised up its China growth forecast to 5% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025 but warned that the property sector remains a significant risk. The IMF suggested that a more comprehensive policy package is necessary to address property sector issues effectively. In terms of Retail Sales, the prior release showed that retail sales growth was the slowest since December 2022, and new home prices fell at their fastest rate in nine years. Significant declines were seen in auto sales (-5.6% Y/Y) and household appliances (4.5% Y/Y), while other discretionary categories like clothing (-2.0%), cosmetics (-2.7%), and gold & jewellery (-0.1%) also weakened. The April data reflected ongoing caution among households and the private sector, with weaker-than-expected retail sales and fixed asset investment. Fixed asset investment growth moderated to 4.2% Y/Y, with public sector investment rising by 7.4% Y/Y, while private sector investment slowed to 0.3% Y/Y.RBA Announcement (Tue): The RBA is expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at its meeting next week with money markets pricing around a 97% chance for rates to be kept at the current level and just a 3% probability of a 25bps cut. As a reminder, the RBA unsurprisingly kept rates unchanged at 4.35% at the May meeting and reiterated that the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and is not ruling anything in or out, while it stated that returning inflation to the target within a reasonable timeframe remains the board’s highest priority, as well as acknowledged that inflation remains high and is falling more gradually than expected. In terms of the central bank’s projections, it raised its inflation forecasts for 2024 but trimmed its expectations for GDP and unemployment, while the RBA’s forecasts assumed that rates will stay at 4.35% until mid-2025 which is nine months longer than previously assumed, although RBA Governor Bullock noted at the post-meeting press conference to not read too much into the technical assumptions regarding rate forecasts. The minutes from that meeting revealed the board considered whether to raise rates but judged the case for steady policy was the stronger one and agreed it was difficult to either rule in or rule out future changes in the Cash Rate. Furthermore, the board expressed limited tolerance for inflation returning to the target later than 2026 and it acknowledged that a rate rise could be appropriate if forecasts proved overly optimistic but noted that risks around the forecasts were judged to be balanced. The rhetoric since that meeting doesn’t suggest much has changed as RBA Governor Bullock has noted the economy is weak which is showing up in consumption and reiterated they are not ruling anything in or out on policy. She also commented that inflation is coming down but only slowly and the board won’t hesitate to act on rates if inflation does not come down as expected although she still judges inflation risks as balanced and stated that Q2 inflation data will be important for monetary policy but not the single most important thing. Recent mixed data releases also support the case to remain on hold as GDP for Q1 disappointed with Q/Q expansion at 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%) and Y/Y growth at 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 1.5%, Rev. 1.6%), while Private Capital Expenditure for Q1 topped forecasts at 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.8%). Furthermore, monthly Weighted CPI for April was firmer-than-expected at 3.60% vs. Exp. 3.40% (Prev. 3.50%) and suggested less scope to loosen policy, while the latest jobs data showed an improvement as Employment Change in May beat estimates with an increase of 39.7k vs. Exp. 30.0k (Prev. 38.5k) which was entirely due to Full-Time jobs and the Unemployment Rate declined to 4.0% from 4.1% despite a slight increase in the participation rate.US Retail Sales (Tue): Headline retail sales are expected to rise +0.3% M/M in May (prev. +0.0%); the ex-autos measure is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.2%). Bank of America’s monthly consumer checkpoint data for the month noted that consumer spending momentum continues to appear soft but stable; according to its internal data, total card spending per household was up 0.7% Y/Y in May following the 1.0% Y/Y increase in April. The report adds the gap between older and younger generations’ spending growth has narrowed which could reflect the fading impact of the 2023 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on social security benefits, alongside strong after-tax wage growth for younger cohorts. Further still, BofA adds “Gen Z and younger Millennials’ share of spending on discretionary items is declining potentially due to increasing spending commitments as they get older. However, higher costs in non-discretionary services is also a headwind”. On the flipside, to counter these pressures BofA finds some evidence that the younger generations are ‘trading down’ in grocery shopping and restaurant decisions. Nonetheless, while the strength in the younger generations’ labour market, such as wages and salary growth, has allowed a majority to navigate these challenges, there are signs of increased financial pressures for some.UK Inflation (Wed): Expectations are for CPI Y/Y to print at 2.0% (prev. 2.3%) for May, which if correct would be just above the MPC’s forecast of 1.9%. As a reminder, the prior release saw headline inflation slip to 2.3% from 3.2% (driven lower by declining gas and electricity prices), core decline to 3.9% from 4.2% and services tick lower to 5.9% from 6.0% with the latter being a disappointment relative to the MPC’s forecast of 5.5%. For the upcoming release, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics expect headline inflation to hit the BoE’s 2% mandate with most of the decline attributable to “core goods and services, as large base effects reduce annual inflation”. For services inflation specifically, the consultancy estimates that “half of the April services inflation surprise was a one-off” that will drop out in May and lead to a decline to 5.5% from 5.9%. PM adds that “inflation is proving persistent, but it isn’t as strong as the April figures in isolation suggest”. That being said, services inflation will likely remain sticky in the coming months. From a policy perspective, a June rate cut is priced at just 10% with the first rate reduction not fully priced until November (Sep at -22bp) and a total of 41bps of easing seen by year-end. Given the sheer volume of data due between now and September, the upcoming release may have little sway on market pricing, particularly with the BoE (see below for a preview of the event) set to come to market the following day with its latest policy statement and minutes which will offer clues over the future policy path.New Zealand GDP (Wed): There are no expectations currently for the GDP. Westpac forecasts a 0.2% Q/Q decline in New Zealand’s GDP for Q1 2024, marking the fifth decline in the last six quarters, contrary to the RBNZ’s expectation of a 0.2% rise. “Considering how overheated the economy had become in previous years, it’s likely that we’re only just moving into ‘cool’ territory”, the analysts said. The desk highlights that key sectors show mixed performance: manufacturing (excluding food) has declined for two years, with significant drops in chemicals and machinery, while construction activity also fell as previous project pipelines dwindled. Conversely, agriculture and food manufacturing improved due to increased milk production and recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle, and tourism-related sectors like transport and hospitality benefited from higher overseas visitor numbers. GDP per person has decreased by 4% from its 2022 peak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, indicating a cooling labour market. Indicators such as the PMI and PSI surveys show a slight uptick in early 2024, but sustained sub-par activity is needed for confidence in inflation control. “A weaker result would support an earlier start date for OCR cuts, though it may be tempered by uncertainty around the economy’s growth potential”, Westpac says.BoE Announcement (Thu): Expectations are for the BoE to hold the Base Rate at its current level of 5.25%, according to all 65 analysts surveyed by Reuters with markets assigning a circa. 10% chance of such an outcome. As a reminder, the prior meeting saw Ramsden join Dhingra in calling for a 25bps cut, whilst the accompanying policy statement reiterated guidance that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive for sufficiently long. Since the prior meeting, headline inflation in April slipped to 2.3% from 3.2% (driven lower by declining gas and electricity prices), core declined to 3.9% from 4.2% and services ticked lower to 5.9% from 6.0% with the latter being a disappointment relative to the MPC’s forecast of 5.5%. In the labour market, the unemployment rate nudged higher to 4.4% in the 3M period to April, whilst headline earnings growth remained sticky at 5.9% in the 3M/YY period to April. PMI metrics for May saw the services print slip to 52.9 from 55.0, and manufacturing rise to 51.2 from 49.1, leaving the composite at 53.0 vs. prev. 54. Rhetoric since the prior meeting has been lacking due to the purdah (pre-election) period inflicted by the UK general election. However, in the aftermath of last month’s decision, Chief Economist Pill remarked that it is not unreasonable to believe that over the summer, the BoE will see enough confidence to consider rate cuts, adding that they could cut and keep the stance restrictive. Overall, given the worse-than-expected outturn for services inflation in April, the MPC is expected to hold fire on policy. As such, the focus will be on any tweaks to existing guidance on rates, however, at the time of writing there is not much to signal that the MPC will have enough confidence to do so – this could change however following the May CPI data due the day before the release. In terms of market pricing beyond next week, a September reduction is priced at around 85% with the first cut not fully priced until November and a total of 41bps of easing seen by year-end.SNB Announcement (Thu): In short, the main point of focus will be on whether they cut further from the current 1.50% rate or elect to wait to see how inflation develops into Q3 where it is expected to tick up slightly; elsewhere, any fresh language around the CHF will be keenly sought. Pricing is just in favour of the SNB cutting at the June meeting, with around a 60% chance of this implied. The odds of a cut increased slightly following the in-line May CPI Y/Y print of 1.4%, a metric which matched market expectations for the month and the SNB’s Q2 view of 1.4%. Continuing with inflation, the focus on FX intervention and CHF language has been heightened by recent remarks from Chairman Jordan where he said that if any upward inflation risk materialised then “this would be most likely associated with a weaker Swiss franc, which we could counteract by selling foreign exchange”; while CPI was in-line, we remain alive to the possibility of any fresh currency nuance from the statement/Chairman. Elsewhere, on the hawkish side, Q1 labour compensation hit 1.9% and as such places an upward skew on inflation outturns ahead. On the Franc, despite having gone as high as 0.9930 in recent weeks, EUR/CHF is in proximity to the levels around March’s meeting with the CHF perhaps slightly stronger as EUR/CHF has been down to a 0.9577 recent low in the last few sessions. Levels which would chime with the March meeting’s language that they are ready to intervene in FX but do not, at face value, necessarily require any further explanation/fresh evaluation by the SNB.Norges Announcement (Thu): Norges Bank is likely to keep rates unchanged and point to the first cut occurring at the end of 2024. In May the Norges Bank kept its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected, noting that data up to that point could suggest a tight monetary stance may be needed for somewhat longer than previously envisaged. At the time, Governor Bache said they had not decided when to cut, which came in slight contrast to prior guidance for a cut to most likely occur in September. May’s CPI-ATE printed at 4.1%, slightly hotter than markets expected but cooler than the Norges Bank’s view of 4.2% Y/Y, while the headline Y/Y came in at 3.0% markedly cooler than market/Norges Bank’s view of 3.3%. Since, the Regional Network for Q2 noted of an improved outlook and featured upward revisions to the 2024 and 2025 wage estimates, factors which err on the hawkish side and mean the Bank is likely to keep rates unchanged and point to the first cut occurring at the end of 2024. As a reminder, the last formal rate path unveiled in March ascribed around an 85% chance of a cut occurring by end-2024, a magnitude the likes of SEB believe will be trimmed to around 70%.Japanese CPI (Fri): There are currently no expectations. Ahead of the release, the Tokyo CPI metric is typically used as a precursor. Tokyo CPI rose to 2.2% Y/Y in May (prev. 1.8% in April), aligning with the market consensus of 2.2%. Core inflation, excluding fresh food, increased to 1.9% Y/Y (prev. 1.6%), also met the market expectation. Utility prices were a significant factor in the increase in higher utility fees, which rose 4.7% in May compared to a decrease of 3.0% in April. Goods prices saw a moderate rise in the prices of various goods. Conversely, prices in the services sector, including transportation, education, and entertainment, saw moderated growth. Given that Tokyo inflation trends often precede national CPI results, consumer prices are expected to increase to nearly 3% Y/Y in the coming months from the 2.5% Y/Y rise in April, according to the desk at ING, who added that the weak JPY and anticipated large wage increases are expected to further intensify inflationary pressures.UK Retail Sales (Fri): Expectations are for a M/M rebound to 0.7% (prev. -2.3%) as the prior period was hit by poor weather. However, the BRC report showed only a modest rebound in May’s retail sales, though KPMG says the influence of a falling CPI rate “which means volumes are not declining as quickly, may help to soften the blow for hard-working retailers.”. Ahead, BRC wrote that retailers “remain optimistic that major events such as the Euros and the Olympics will bolster consumer confidence this summer.”. Barclaycard’s spending monitor has similar points, highlighting that falling inflation and energy bills (after the Ofgem cap reduction) have eased pressure on households, however, this comes against increasing rental & mortgage expenditures; overall, writing that signs of optimism are emerging. Note, the release is likely to have little sway on market pricing surrounding the BoE given that we will hear from the bank during the prior session and with the MPC focused primarily on services inflation and real wage growth.UK Flash PMI (Fri): UK PMIs will be released the day after the BoE and thus will not have a bearing on next week’s confab, but nonetheless will be eyed for anecdotal commentary on the economy. UK Services PMI is seen ticking slightly higher to 53.0 from 52.9, while the Manufacturing and Composite have no expectations at the time of writing. In terms of the prior release, S&P Global in the Final May release suggested “It is worth noting however that the PMI’s gauge of UK services inflation is still sitting well above its pre-pandemic trend, which may give more weight to those suggesting the Bank of England hold out until August to loosen policy”.EZ Flash PMI (Fri): EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI is forecast to rise to 48.0 from 47.3, and Services is expected at 53.6 (prev. 53.2), bringing the Composite to 52.5 (prev. 52.2). As usual, desks will also dig into the release for anecdotal commentary on sentiment, growth, inflation and wages. Analysts at Oxford Economics suggest the June flash PMI for the EZ is “expected to show improvement in growth momentum as the services sector is likely to maintain healthy activity rises while manufacturing bottoms out. Beyond the headline and sector-level performance, we will scrutinise the figures for Germany and France following opposite signals in May. The German composite PMI rose to a one-year high in May, while the French index fell back into contraction.”US Flash PMIS (Fri): There are no expectations for the US Flash PMIs, but the metrics have a tendency to move broader markets – particularly in the absence of the US ISM PMIs straight after. In terms of the priors, Manufacturing was at 51.3, Services at 54.8 and Composite at 54.5. Traders will be dissecting the release for anecdotal commentary on growth, inflation, wages and overall sentiment among respondents, particularly after the soft price-related outturns in the sessions around the FOMC.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at www.forexlive.com.

  • Weekly Market Outlook (17-21 June)
    by Giuseppe Dellamotta on June 16, 2024 at 9:33 am

    UPCOMING EVENTS:Monday: PBoC MLF, New Zealand Services PMI, China Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Eurozone Wage Growth.Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, Eurozone ZEW, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production.Wednesday: UK CPI, US NAHB Housing Market Index, BoC Meeting Minutes.Thursday: New Zealand GDP, PBoC LPR, SNB Policy Decision, BoE Policy Decision, US Housing Starts and Building Permits, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, Canada Retail Sales. MondayThe PBoC is expected to keep the MLF rate unchanged at 2.50%. There doesn’t seem to be any urgency to ease policy further amid an improvement in the economic data. The central bank will also likely keep the LPR rates unchanged at 3.45% for the 1-year and 3.95% for the 5-year on Thursday. TuesdayThe RBA is expected to keep the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35%. As a reminder, the central bank got a bit more hawkish amid a lack of clear improvement in inflation and said that it couldn’t rule in or out future changes to the cash rate. The RBA’s forecasts were revised to show that rates will likely stay at 4.35% until mid-2025. The recent data supports the case to keep the policy unchanged as the monthly inflation report surprised to the upside and the labour market data came in stronger than expected.The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.3% vs. 0.0% prior, while the ex-Autos measure is seen at 0.2% vs. 0.2% prior. Consumer spending has remained stable which is something you would expect given the solid wage growth and resilient labour market. We are getting some worrying signals from the UMich Consumer Sentiment which could suggest that consumer spending is likely to soften a bit.WednesdayThe UK CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs. 2.3% prior, while Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 3.5% vs. 3.9% prior. The last report was a bit of a disappointment for the BoE as services inflation, which is what the central bank cares most about, came in much higher than expected at 5.9% Y/Y vs. BoE’s estimate of 5.5%. This report won’t change anything for the upcoming BoE decision on Thursday, but a surprisingly soft release should see the market increase the rate cuts pricing and tilt the central bank’s decision on a more dovish side. ThursdayThe SNB is expected to cut interest rates to 1.25% although the market pricing stands around 60%, so it’s more of a coin-flip between 1.50% and 1.25%. The latest inflation rate came in line with SNB’s estimate at 1.4% Y/Y (Core 1.2% Y/Y). The Swiss Franc saw a strong appreciation recently due to Chairman Jordan’s comments where he said that if any inflation risk were to materialise, it would most likely be associated with a weaker Franc which could be counteracted by selling foreign exchange (buying CHF). He also touched on the neutral interest rate (r*) and said that they estimate it to be around 0%. So, even if they cut rates, in theory their policy would still be restrictive and if inflation were to rise somewhat in the coming months, they could just intervene by buying Swiss Franc.The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25%. As a reminder, the last meeting was a bit more dovish than expected with Ramsden joining Dhingra voting for a rate cut and Governor Bailey delivering some dovish comments like saying that they could cut more than the market expected. It’s pretty evident that the central bank is eager to cut but nonetheless wants a bit more confidence before easing the policy rate. The tone will likely be shaped by the UK CPI the day before.The US Jobless Claims continue to be one of the most important releases to follow every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around the 1800K level.This has led to a weaker and weaker market reaction as participants become used to these numbers. Nonetheless, we got a notable miss in both Initial and Continuing Claims last week although the culprit might have been just a seasonal effect or measurement adjustment. This week Initial Claims are expected at 240K vs. 242K prior, while there’s no consensus at the time of writing for Continuing Claims although the prior release showed an increase to 1820K vs. 1790K previously. FridayThe Japanese Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.2% prior. The Tokyo CPI saw all inflation measures increasing compared to the prior month, so we might see the same happening for the National readings. It shouldn’t change much for the BoJ at the moment as they will likely need a couple more reports before deciding on another rate hike. As a reminder, the central bank disappointed the market last week as it kept everything unchanged despite expectations of a reduction in bond purchases. Nonetheless, Governor Ueda in the press conference pre-committed to a reduction immediately after the next meeting and mentioned that it will be “substantial”. Friday will also be the Flash PMIs Day with the markets, as it usually the case, focusing more on the US readings:Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 expected vs. 47.3 prior.Eurozone Services PMI: 53.5 expected vs. 53.2 prior.UK Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 expected vs. 51.2 prior.UK Services PMI: 53.2 expected vs. 52.9 prior.US Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 expected vs. 51.3 prior.US Services PMI: 53.5 expected vs. 54.8 prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

  • The troll farms are winning and can’t be stopped
    by Adam Button on June 15, 2024 at 1:22 pm

    “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”That’s the first amendment and may prove to be what undoes liberal democracies. Worse yet, the Supreme Court has interpreted ‘free speech’ extremely broadly, including the use of money as free speech.It’s increasingly clear to me this is an extreme vulnerability that being exploited in the US and around the world.On June 6 the State Department’s top official on digital and cyber policy, Nate Fick, told an audience at an event hosted by the Washington Post:“I don’t think most American citizens really viscerally understand how much of the content they see on social platforms is actually a foreign intelligence operation…. I just don’t think we viscerally get how much of what we see is bot-generated or foreign intelligence service–generated.”I have little doubt that’s true and an increasing fear that much of what I see — and maybe even things I believe — has been hijacked by these groups. Seeing the tools that are out there with AI and bots, I believe it’s almost trivial now to set up a bot farm. If I were an anti-American Russian doing it, I wouldn’t be writing “Mother Russia is great,” the aim would be to sow division, to crank up the volume on any issue, to inspire American hate for other Americans.Divide and conquer.I also believe that Russia sees itself as a victim of this game, rightly or wrongly. They believe that the Euromaidan rallies in Ukraine — which were organized on social media — were a US influence operation.On Friday, Reuters reported an incredible story. During the peak of the pandemic, the US was running an online operation to discredit the Chinese vaccine in the Philippines and ultimately vaccines in general, putting thousands of lives at risk and the Philippines had among the worst inoculations rates in Southeast Asia.It was part of a petty fight after China started a “disinformation campaign to falsely blame the United States for the spread of COVID-19,” according to the report.If the US was willing to do that to the Philippines, what is it doing elsewhere?Reuters reports:Today, the military employs a sprawling ecosystem of social media influencers, front groups and covertly placed digital advertisements to influence overseas audiences, according to current and former military officials…. in February, the contractor that worked on the anti-vax campaign – General Dynamics IT – won a $493 million contract. Its mission: to continue providing clandestine influence services for the military. This has been going on for a long time. In 2013, Reddit revealed that Eglin Air Force Base in Tampa Bay (the home of the US’s propaganda wing) was it’s most-addicted city.After Euromaiden, the Russians became determined to retaliate and that was why the Internet Research Agency — founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin — was at work in the 2016 US election. I suspect the Russians were amazed at how well it worked and so did the rest of the world. The aim isn’t to invent stories but to elevate conspiracies and make people angry.Given the comments from the State Department, the US knows its a target. Heather Cox Richardson wrote about it earlier this week:Officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) told lawmakers that Russian influence operations aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and faith in democratic institutions provide the top threat to the upcoming U.S. election. China is the second-greatest threat but is more cautious because it is concerned about U.S. blowback, while the third, Iran, acts primarily as a “chaos agent,” trying to confuse voters. The ODNI officials said they have been issuing warnings to political candidates, government officials, and others targeted by foreign groups. That brings us back to free speech. These kinds of campaigns are going to prove nearly-impossible to stop. Democrats like it when false rumours are spread about Republicans and vice versa. Anyone trying to stop the rumours would be seen as partisan or disloyal. It’s a win-at-all costs mentality that puts party ahead of country.AI is going to hyper-charge this. There will be individually-optimized campaigns based on your data that create videos and ads targeted at you personally to make you unhappy and enraged.Yes, some bot farms will be shut down but 10 more will spring up. I don’t see any way to stop it. The first amendment is written in stone and social platforms are open, anonymous and for sale.What can we do? Ban anonymity online? That would be extremely unpopular. Go to a censored, walled-off internet like China? That’s completely incompatible with the Constitution and freedom in general.For markets, the destabilization will inevitably lead to conflict and division; none of which can be good for growth. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Markets Week Ahead: BoE, SNB, RBA Deliberate on Rates
    by Richard Snow on June 15, 2024 at 9:00 am

    Three major central banks meet this week with a large focus on the UK as the improving CPI trend could usher in a dovish tone from the BoE. RBA to hold, SNB to cut?

  • Gold price rallies on weak US inflation despite hawkish Fed tilt
    on June 14, 2024 at 11:05 pm

    Gold’s price spiked during the North American session on Friday after inflation data in the United States (US) increased investors’ hopes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates later this year.

  • EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Slips below 169.00 amid political turmoil
    on June 14, 2024 at 10:02 pm

    The Euro tumbled for the second straight day against the Japanese Yen due to political uncertainty.

  • NZD/USD Price Analysis: Consolidation phase intensifies, bulls present battle
    on June 14, 2024 at 9:55 pm

    The NZD/USD dipped to a low of 0.6115 before recovering and stabilizing at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.6140.

  • Australian Dollar closes the week soft as markets gear up for RBA’s decision
    on June 14, 2024 at 9:43 pm

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced additional losses against the US Dollar (USD) despite strong labor market data from Australia reported earlier in the week, which prompted for a more hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

  • Canadian Dollar grinds flat on Friday after mild miss in Canadian sales figures
    on June 14, 2024 at 9:16 pm

    The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found a thin recovery on Friday, gaining ground against most of its major currency peers and clawing back a scant tenth of a percent against the US Dollar (USD).

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average scrambles to recovery lost ground on Friday but still ends lower
    on June 14, 2024 at 9:12 pm

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed from an early low on Friday, but sill traded on the low side of Thursday’s closing bids after getting knocked further back during the overnight session.

  • Mexican Peso sinks as post-election losses pile up, down 0.30% in the week
    on June 14, 2024 at 9:10 pm

    The Mexican Peso’s downtrend continued Friday, with the emerging market currency depreciating by 0.48% as market participants were still nervous about the judiciary reform.

  • EUR/USD tests fresh six-week lows below 1.0700 on Friday
    on June 14, 2024 at 9:10 pm

    EUR/USD slipped further into the low end on Friday, clipping into 1.0670 before recovering to the 1.0700 handle during the US market session.

  • AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Buyers consolidate, sellers challenge the 20-day SMA support
    on June 14, 2024 at 9:01 pm

    In Friday’s session, the AUD/JPY pair further descended as buyers continued to realize their profits, which led to the pair falling briefly below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.60, only to regain ground above the 104.00 mark.

  • Unlocking Apple’s Stock Potential: Technical Signals to Watch
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 8:59 pm

    Apple broke higher this week on the back of the new AII news for the company (and its products announced ar the World Wide Developers Confeence. Fundamentally, the hope is the new AI initiatives will stir a new round of product upgrades for its user base. That is something new vs what has been ho-hum improvements in the camera or other services. Technically, the price broke out of an up-and-down trading range that has confined the stock between $165 and $200 since April 2023. Non-trending transitions to trending and if so, the trend has restarted with the breakout this week. That is very IMPORTANT.. What next?Trends tend to be “fast, directional, and tend to go farther than what traders think” (or expect). If so, the move this week is only the beginning. If the goal is to stay on the trend, it is important to know when price action is not trending anymore. Technical tools will help to tell that story. In this video, I discuss the breakout and more importantly outline where the trend is in jeopardy. As long as the describe technical levels are not breached, the buyers and trend remain intact. We all want to ride the trend. Morevoer, if you want to be aggressive on a correction to “get in” on the trend or add to your position, I will outline the low-risk levels on a correction, that would be a good level/area to buy the stock “on sale”. In This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • USD/JPY Price Analysis: Climbs steadily above 157.00
    on June 14, 2024 at 8:40 pm

    The USD/JPY finishes the week on a higher note, registering gains of 0.22% on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to hold rates unchanged, weakening the Japanese Yen (JPY).

  • US Dollar closes the week strong despite weak UoM figures
    on June 14, 2024 at 8:30 pm

    On Friday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) shrugged off weak data releases and continued its positive traction.

  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: European political turmoil on center stage
    by Adam Button on June 14, 2024 at 8:22 pm

    June US UMich June prelim consumer sentiment 65.6 vs 72.0 expectedMacron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll releasedFrance’s Macron: Economic programs by two extremists blocks are not realisticChicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee CPI data this week was very goodBaker Hughes US oil rig count -4ECB’s Lagarde: Unless we have a major shock, target is inflation to hit 2% in H2 2025Fed’s Mester: We are starting to see inflation move down again after stallingUS import prices -0.4% vs +0.1% expectedCanada April wholesale sales +2.4% vs +2.8% expectedMarkets:Gold up $30 to $2331WTI crude down 13-cents to $78.47US 10-year yields down 2.3 bps to 4.21%CHF leads, GBP lagsS&P 500 flatThe US dollar continued its climb early in the North American session with the euro and pound under particular pressure but those moves later reversed to finish final hours of the week flat. The Australian and Canadian dollar followed a similar path, recovering a portion of the losses that peaked at 10 am ET.Some of the dollar selling came after a softer UMich sentiment survey, highlighting the vulnerabilities in the US economy, especially with the Fed in no rush to cut.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • The Nasdaq closes at a new record high for the 5th consecutive day
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 8:17 pm

    The NASDAQ index closed at a new record on Monday at 17192.53. It did the same on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and again today to extend the streak of consecutive high close levels to five trading days.The S&P was on a similar move this week, but close marginally lower today snapping it 4-day record close string. Overall, however, both the S&P and NASDAQ indices are closing higher for the week. The Dow industrial average did not fare as well as it fell today and is closing lower for the week.The final numbers are showing:Dow Industrial Average average -57.94 points or -0.15% at 38589.15S&P index -2.14 points or -0.04% at 5431.61NASDAQ index rose 21.32 points or 0.12% at 17688.88for the trading week:Dow industrial average fell -0.54%S&P index rose 1.58%NASDAQ index rose 3.24% which was its largest weekly gain since April 22.The small-cap Russell 2000 did not fare as well today or this week. On the day, the index fell -32.75 points or -1.61% at 2006.15. For the trading week, the index fell -1.00%:.Some big winners this week included:Broadcom, +23.35%. The company announced earnings and also a 10:1 stock splitAdobe +12.87%. They announced their earnings which beat expectations and raised guidance as wellCrowdStrike: +10.45%. They too announced better-than-expected earningsShopify, +9.87%Super Micro Computer, +9.81%Nvidia, +9.09%Micron, +7.96%Apple, +7.925 on the back of Worldwide Developers Conference. Technically, the stock broke outside its $165 to $200 trading range that has confined the pair since April 2023Lam Research, +7.61%Home Depot +6.04%Palo Alto networks, +5.10%Some big losers included:Celcius -17.87%Trump Media, -17.2%Raytheon, -17.17%Paramount, -15.32%. Beyond Meat, -12.52% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Elections chase out EUR spec longs
    by Adam Button on June 14, 2024 at 7:51 pm

    It’s no surprise that euro longs are bailing with all the turmoil in France. We saw how much in the latest CFTC data, which covers futures up to Tuesday’s close.Net spec longs fell to 44K contracts from 67K. I wouldn’t be surprised if more cashed out later this week due to the pain hitting French bonds.The other notable moves in the IMM report were large jumps in AUD spec shorts and particularly in CAD spec shots which jumped to 129K from 92K. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • RBC expects another Bank of Canada rate cut in July
    by Adam Button on June 14, 2024 at 7:40 pm

    RBC says the decision for the Bank of Canada to cut rates as the country has underperformed global peers on a per-capital basis for more than a year. Theyalso say that’s why it’s easier to envision the BOC on a sharper path of easing than other G10 central banks.They envision the Bank of England cutting in August but expect a slow pace after that, with only 100 bps by the end of 2025 and a similar pace from the ECB. They don’t see the Fed easing until December.For the Bank of Canada, they envision a second 25 basis point cut in July, something I talked about yesterday on BNNBloomberg.Market pricing currently reflects 55 basis points in further easing in Canada this year. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Buyers defend 20-day SMA despite consolidation
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:35 pm

    Friday records an extended consolidation phase for the NZD/JPY pair, maintaining its level after reaching the multi-year highs logged earlier the week.

  • United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 233.5K vs 210.7K
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 233.5K vs 210.7K

  • Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions fell from previous ¥-132.1K to ¥-138.6K
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions fell from previous ¥-132.1K to ¥-138.6K

  • United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $237.3K to $233.9K
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $237.3K to $233.9K

  • Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-51.3K to $-64.8K
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions fell from previous $-51.3K to $-64.8K

  • United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions up to £52.1K from previous £43.2K
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:33 pm

    United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions up to £52.1K from previous £43.2K

  • Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions declined to €43.6K from previous €67.9K
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:32 pm

    Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions declined to €43.6K from previous €67.9K

  • United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-65K to $-111.4K
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:32 pm

    United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions dipped from previous $-65K to $-111.4K

  • Fed’s Goolsbee: European rate cuts could bolster the US Dollar
    on June 14, 2024 at 7:09 pm

    Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago cautioned that he still wants to see further progress on inflation, but sees the possibility of worsening conditions in manufacturing and argiculture.

  • France’s Macron: Economic programs by two extremists blocks are not realistic
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 6:45 pm

    France’s president Macron:Not worried by the impact on markets after decision to dissolve governmentEconomic programs by twoto extremist blocks in parliament election are not realistic.We are at a very serious moment for our country, with major economic issues at stake. Hopes to have agreement on top you jobs quickly This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Crude oil settles at $78.45
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 6:39 pm

    Crude oil futures are settling at $78.45. That is down $0.17 and -0.22%The high-priced today reached $79.11. The low price was at $77.75. Looking at the daily chart above, the price high this week moved toward the near converged 100 and 200 day moving averages. Those levels come near $79.45. Going into next week, the moving averages will be the key barometer for both buyers and sellers. Moving above both those moving averages is needed to increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective. Conversely, staying below would keep the sellers more in control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee CPI data this week was very good
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 6:10 pm

    Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee is speaking and says:CPI data this week was very good. If we got a lot of months like May CPI data, we would be feeling very goodMy feeling was reliefWe got to see some more progressWe are going to get a lot of data between now and September, December meetingsGoolsbee is thought to be a dove. He is a 2025 voting memberMore from Goolsbee:In the near to medium term what will determine if rates go back to normal is if inflation is on its path to 2%That has a 2% inflation goal and it must keep that promiseWe are going to get to 2% inflationIf we get it to 2% I am fine with then having a discussion on changing the target but not until then.Dynamics now look a lot more like the regular business cycleif we get more months like we just saw on inflation, Fed can cut rates.Pain is rising in various parts of the economyif we keep making progress on inflation, and the rates can come down, we may avoid recessionA stronger dollar would affect export/import balance and affect US employment and inflationIf inflation had behaves as it did in first quarter, we would have a hard time cutting ratesUnemployment rate, quits rate, ratio of jobs to openings looks like labor market is callingI I don’t take too much signal from the monthly payroll data by itself This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Fed’s Mester: Probably won’t get to 2.0% inflation until 2026
    on June 14, 2024 at 6:10 pm

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester noted on Friday that she would like to see a longer run of good-looking inflation data, and noted that the path towards the Fed’s 2.0% inflation goal may take longer than expected.

  • Macron’s gamble is looking like a disaster as new poll released
    by Adam Button on June 14, 2024 at 5:54 pm

    French President Emmanuel Macron took the mother-of-all political risks by calling an early election. His hope was that voters would recoil from the far-left and far-right and gravitate to his party.Instead, the opposite has happened. The far left united and a good chunk of his own party wants to join the far right.A new poll underscores his dismal prospects:Far-right (RN) 29.5%Far-left popular front 28.5%Macron’s centrist camp 18%Elections are funny things and there is still some time left but the market clearly sees something it doesn’t like. And notably — both the far left and far right after for larger budget deficits. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count declined to 488 from previous 492
    on June 14, 2024 at 5:14 pm

    United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count declined to 488 from previous 492

  • Baker Hughes US oil rig count -4
    by Adam Button on June 14, 2024 at 5:06 pm

    Oil -4 to 488Natural gas unchanged at 98Oil drilling rigs have steadily declined in the past year, though that’s offset somewhat by longer laterals. It bodes poorly for US production growth late this year and into 2025. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • An updated technical look at USDJPY heading into to the weekend and the new trading week
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 4:48 pm

    The USDJPY corrected higher since the start of the US session, and ran into resistance above between 157.40 and 157.464. Buyers turned to sellers against the level.Going forward, that swing area will be close resistance not only today but in the new trading week. If broken, traders would look toward the May 29 high at 157.708 as the next target to get to and through. Earlier today the level was broken on its way to 158.24 (the highest level since April 29).If the price can stay below the 157.464 level, and extend back below the 100-day moving average 157.067 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June low at 156.829, the sellers would take more control.With the run higher failing today, and the correction stalling near a lower resistance level, the short term bias is lower now. However, there is work to do to increase the sellers confidence and control heading into the new trading week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Broadcom is having its own Nvidia moment as shares rise 20% on week
    on June 14, 2024 at 4:37 pm

    Broadcom (AVGO) stock exploded 12% on Thursday, quite a feat for a company already valued at more than half a trillion dollars.

  • EUR/GBP rebounds from 0.8400, but remains sharply lower
    on June 14, 2024 at 4:31 pm

    EUR/GBP dipped to a fresh 22-month low on Friday, tapping 0.8400 before finding a thin recovery that still leaves the pair battling at the bottom of an accelerating three-month decline from April’s peaks above 0.8600.

  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 3.1%
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 4:18 pm

    The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 3.1% from 2.6% on June 6In their own words:The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on June 7, up from 2.6 percent on June 6. After this morning’s employment situation release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.4 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, to 2.8 percent and 7.7 percent.The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 18.The growth estimate was as high as 4.2%, and as low as 1.8% before starting the last move back to the upside. At 3.1% that is still pretty strong growth. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD bearish harami confirmed as Pound slumps below 1.2700
    on June 14, 2024 at 4:03 pm

    GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bearish harami confirmed as Pound slumps below 1.2700 The Pound Sterling dropped sharply below the 1.2700 figure as risk aversion took its toll on most G7 currencies, except for safe-haven peers like the Greenback.

  • AUDUSD buyers & sellers had their shot at breaking this week. Both shot and missed.
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 4:01 pm

    The AUDUSD started the week testing the low of a swing area (going back to early May) near 0.6579 and also the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 2024 low to the May high near the same level. Sellers pushed the price below that level early on Monday of this week, but could not sustain momentum and the price started to rotate back to the upside.The weaker US CPI data shot the price even higher. The subsequent high price this week (reached on Wednesday) moved above the high of a swing area that has confined the pair since early May at 0.66896. Buyer entered reaching a high for the week at 0.67037.However, by the end of day on Wednesday, the price has moved back below the high of the swing area at 0.66896 and buyers turned back to sellers.Today, the momentum lower continued with the pair moving below a cluster moving averages including the:100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6635200 hour MA at 0.66316100 hour MA at 0.6625, and200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at the same 0.6625That MA cluster between 0.6625 and 0.6635 is now resistance. If the technicals are to turn back to the upside, getting above that area is needed.The low price today reached 0.6591 ahead of the 38.2% retracement and 0.6579.So what does all the ups and downs say?The market is unsure of the directional biasAt some point, the market will break outside the up and down range. Going into the end of week and the new trading week, traders will need to get instable on 0.6579 level to increase the bearish bias.If they cannot do that, and the price moves back above the cluster of MAs up to 0.6635, that would shift the bias back in the favor of the buyers once again. The battle is on. The sellers are more in control vs the cluster of MA, but unless the 38.2% can be broken, the battle will continue. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.74% (May) vs 0.5%
    on June 14, 2024 at 4:00 pm

    Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.74% (May) vs 0.5%

  • British Pound (GBP) – Bank of England and Inflation Data on Deck Next Week
    by Nick Cawley on June 14, 2024 at 4:00 pm

    UK inflation is expected to fall further next week and that may give the Bank of England a bit of wiggle room when discussing future rate cuts

  • GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bearish harami confirmed as Pound slumps below 1.2700
    on June 14, 2024 at 3:54 pm

    The Pound Sterling dropped sharply below the 1.2700 figure as risk aversion took its toll on most G7 currencies, except for safe-haven peers like the Greenback.

  • Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in March: Actual (-1.6%)
    on June 14, 2024 at 3:42 pm

    Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (1.6%) in March: Actual (-1.6%)

  • European equity close: The elections can’t come soon enough
    by Adam Button on June 14, 2024 at 3:37 pm

    Closing changes:Stoxx 600 -1.0%German DAX -1.3%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%French CAC -2.7%Italy MIB -2.9%Spain IBEX -0.9%This was the worst week in the Stoxx 600 since October. Does this trend-break matter? A 50% retracement of the rally since October would be a 6.6% decline from here.Meanwhile, the CAC 40 has already retraced 50% of the gain since October and the question is whether it makes a round trip.The first round of the French election is June 30 and the second round on July 7 — that’s 15 trading days. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • EUR/JPY tracks lower on French election fears and BoJ ending QE
    on June 14, 2024 at 3:19 pm

    The EUR/JPY is trading down over a third of a percent in the 167s on Friday, as French-election jitters weigh on the Euro (EUR) whilst the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains support from the prospect of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) winding down its quantitative easing (QE) programme.

  • It’s not a pretty picture in the Russell 2000
    by Adam Button on June 14, 2024 at 3:07 pm

    This is what regime change in the stock market looks like.On Wednesday, the Russell 2000 surged on a soft CPI report and it bumped higher yesterday on PPI. But here we are at the lows of the week and at a six-week low, as it reversed a 2% gain.For 18 months, the market has been trading higher on falling CPI but after a big cooling in the latest data, this shows that regime is over. The market has moved past inflation and is now more worried about growth. The Russell 2000 is cyclical and isn’t the market beneficiary of the first wave of AI (though I believe AI-based automation will ultimately goose profits).So this chart is what you get, with a break of support after stalling ahead of 2100 and several failures to break that level. The chart could also be forming into a head-and-shoulders top that would target a 14% decline from here.It doesn’t look great here in the short term, but that head-and-shoulders isn’t a done deal. There are a series of higher lows so far this year and some consolidation above the old 2022-23 range that topped near 2000.I’ll be watching closely in the week ahead. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • USD/CAD: Trades sideways in the mid-1.3700 area – Scotiabank
    on June 14, 2024 at 3:02 pm

    The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a relative outperformer in Friday’s session, says Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank USD/CAD short-term trend momentum is weak “Despite broader US Dollar (USD) strength and weak stocks, the CAD is a relative out-performer on the session.

  • The USDCHF is lower keeping the seller in control. The 200D MA is a key downside target.
    by Greg Michalowski on June 14, 2024 at 2:58 pm

    The USDCHF rebounded earlier this week in the process extended above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May high to the June low. The level came in at 0.8986. However, momentum cannot be sustained in the price started rotation to the downside helped by the weaker CPI on Wednesday. The low for the week extended below its 200 day moving average of 0.88968. Last week that moving average was also broken but each break failed. The one on Wednesday also failed.After rebounding on Wednesday into the close and trading higher on Thursday into the New York session, sellers returned pushing the price down to a floor near 0.89318. That floor was ultimately broken today. The current price trades near 0.8909.So sellers are more control. The price is below a cluster moving averages including the:200 hour moving average 0.8939100-day moving average 0.89535100-hour moving average also at 0.89535All those levels would need to be broken on the top side to shift the bias back in the buyers favor at least in the short term. Absent that, and the 200 day moving average at 0.88968 is the key focus for sellers. Get and stay below that level, opens the door for more selling. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • French-German Bond Spread Widens, Signaling Euro Weakness Ahead of Elections
    by Richard Snow on June 14, 2024 at 10:11 am

    The euro faces a challenging week as political uncertainties in France outweigh the brief reprieve from US CPI data. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP technical analysis reveals key levels

  • US Dollar Index Prints a One-Month High, USD/JPY Rallies Post-BoJ Meeting
    by Nick Cawley on June 14, 2024 at 7:40 am

    The US dollar is benefiting from a bout of weakness in the Euro and the Japanese Yen and is nearing levels last seen one month ago.

  • BoJ Preview: Inflation and Wages Leave more to be Desired
    by Richard Snow on June 13, 2024 at 1:39 pm

    BoJ expected to leave rates on hold but talk over gradually reducing bond purchases are likely to draw the focus tomorrow. Yen gives back ground after FOMC event

  • Euro Latest – EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Technical Outlooks
    by Nick Cawley on June 13, 2024 at 10:23 am

    The Euro bounced back from heavily oversold conditions on Wednesday, helped by a softer than expected US inflation report.

  • FOMC Roundup: Fed Reconsiders Rate Cuts as Inflation Forecast Drifts Higher
    by Richard Snow on June 13, 2024 at 8:03 am

    Fed trims rate cut bets as inflation forecast rises. USD reclaims ground on hawkish projections, while US equities rally on lower yields despite hotter inflation outlook

  • Market Snapshot Pre-FOMC: EUR/USD, S&P 500, USD/JPY
    by Richard Snow on June 12, 2024 at 3:40 pm

    US CPI posted encouraging figures, acting as a release valve for the dollar and lingering concerns of accelerating price pressures. This is how major assets shape up pre-FOMC

  • US Dollar Index Slumps as Inflation Data Comes in Lower Than Expected
    by Nick Cawley on June 12, 2024 at 12:59 pm

    The latest US CPI report missed all market forecasts and sent the US dollar index spinning lower. Later today, the FOMC meeting and economic projections.

  • GBP/USD: Navigating the Uncertainty of US CPI and FOMC Releases
    by Richard Snow on June 12, 2024 at 9:33 am

    UK growth flatlined in April, adding to the woes of yesterday’s concerning jobs data. GBP/USD will be data dependent today as markets await crucial US CPI and the FOMC forecasts

  • US Dollar Eyes CPI Data and FOMC Policy Release, Dot Plot Key Indicator
    by Nick Cawley on June 12, 2024 at 7:16 am

    Today’s US inflation data for May and the latest FOMC policy decision, including the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, will be the drivers of market price action over the coming weeks.

  • Market Update – Risk Sentiment Slips, Gold, VIX Better Bid as US CPI and FOMC Near
    by Nick Cawley on June 11, 2024 at 4:30 pm

    Risk markets are on the backfoot as US trading starts, with European indices continuing this week’s move lower. Gold has stabilized and is using chart support to push higher.

  • Euro Continues to Stumble as Periphery Bond Yields Come into Focus
    by Richard Snow on June 11, 2024 at 2:02 pm

    The risk gauge for EU bond markets (periphery bond yields) have risen since French President Macro’s announcement to hold parliamentary elections, weighing on the Euro

  • USD/JPY Drifts Higher, Will the BoJ Announce Bond Tapering at Friday’s Policy Meeting?
    by Nick Cawley on June 11, 2024 at 9:55 am

    As the US dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese Yen, all eyes are now on the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting on Friday.

  • UK Sheds Jobs but Pay Grows to 5.9% – Complicating BoE Rate Outlook
    by Richard Snow on June 11, 2024 at 8:00 am

    UK job losses accelerated in May by over 50,000 – the most since February 2021 while pay growth rose. The Bank of England meets next week to set interest rates

  • FOMC Preview: Dot Plot to Reveal Fewer Rate Cuts in 2024
    by Richard Snow on June 10, 2024 at 5:01 pm

    Stubborn inflation and a robust labour market are likely to add to concerns FOMC members are having around cutting interest rates prematurely. Even growth is on track for a recovery

  • Gold and Silver Struggling to Push Higher, UST 2Yr Yields Remain Elevated
    by Nick Cawley on June 10, 2024 at 2:03 pm

    Gold and silver are trying to recover some of last Friday’s post-NFP heavy losses but further gains may be limited ahead of the latest look at US inflation and the FOMC policy decision.

  • Sterling Outlook: UK Jobs, Growth Data Considered in a Busy US-Focused Week
    by Richard Snow on June 10, 2024 at 10:21 am

    The UK job market has eased, unlike what we’ve seen in the US after last week’s NFP surprise. UK growth remains constrained but that has not impeded sterling gains

  • Euro, CAC 40 Sink on French Snap Election Call; EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Latest
    by Nick Cawley on June 10, 2024 at 7:52 am

    French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election after his party suffered a heavy defeat to the far-right National Party at this weekend’s European elections.

  • Markets Week Ahead: Fed, BoJ Rate Decisions, Nasdaq, Gold, Bitcoin
    by Nick Cawley on June 8, 2024 at 8:00 am

    A week packed with high impact economic data and events, led by the latest monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.