NEWS & MEDIA

EURUSDUSDJPY:GBPUSD:USDCHF:USDCAD:AUDUSD and NZDUSD This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks close the week with gains on the day. S&P and Nasdaq lower for the week.Next week will be the Grand Daddy of the earning calendar this quarterBaker Hughes oil rig count +5 to 482.ECBs Schnabel:Services inflation showing last mile in inflation fight especially difficultEuropean shares bounce back. Mixed performance for the week.Initial Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker comes in at 2.8%University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July 66.4 versus 66.0 estimate (and prelim)Kickstart the FX trading day for July 26 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSDUS Core PCE YoY for June 2.6% versus 2.5% estimateThe AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins.ForexLive European FX news wrap: A bit of respite ahead of the US PCE reportFor most of the week, the flow of funds sent the JPY and CHF higher on flight to safety flows. The AUD (and NZD) lower as risk off sentiment dominated on the back of slowdown in China, lower commodities and stocks moving lower. Today saw a reversal of some of those trends. For the day, the AUDSD is the strongest of the majors. The CHF is ending as the weakest. The JPY is ending the day mixed. The USD which was mixed for a lot of the week is ending the week with the same fortunes today. Stocks moved higher in both Europe and the US today. The major European indices bounced back in trading today with all the indices higher. German DAX, +0.68%France CAC +1.22%UK FTSE 100 +1.21%Spain’s Ibex +0.18%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12%For the trading week, most of the indices were higher except Italy’s FTSE MIBGerman DAX +1.38%France CAC, -0.22%UK FTSE 100, +1.59%Spain’s Ibex, +0.71%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.09%The final numbers in the US closed the day with gains across the board. Dow industrial average rose 654.27 points or 1.64% at 40,589.35.S&P index rose 59.86 points or 1.11% at 5459.09NASDAQ index rose 176.16 points or 1.03% at 17357.88The small-cap Russell 2000 rose to 37.08 points or 1.67% at 2260.06.For the trading week, the results were mixed with the Dow up for the 4th consecutive week. The Russell 2000 was up for the 3rd week.. The S&P and the Nasdaq were down for the 2nd consecutive week. Next week will be influenced by a slew of earnings highlighted by Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Amazon amongst other large cap titans in various industries. US yields are closing the day near lows across the yield curve:2 year yield 4.389%, -5.4 basis points5-year yield 4.0767%, -6.8 basis points10-year yield 4.195%, -6.0 basis points30-year yield 4.456%, -4.4 basis pointsFor the trading week:2-year yield -13 basis points5-year yield, -9.4 basis points10-year yield, -4.7 basis points30-year yield, unchanged.The 2-10 year rose by 8.3 basis points for the week to -19.4 basis pointe. The 2-30 year spread is ending positive by 6.7 basis points. Fundamentally today, the PCE data was consistent with the PCE data from the GDP data yesterday. The core PCE moved up by 0.188% (rounded to 0.2%. The YoY rose by 2.6%. The was unchanged from last month. The headline PCE rose of 0.1% (revised higher) with the YoY dipping to 2.5% from 2.6%. The Michigan consumer survey data was mixed with the sentiment moving higher vs the preliminary, the current conditions lower and the expectations higher . Inflation results were more or less as expected and close to last months levels. IN addition to the parade of earnings, the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will announce interest rate decision. The US jobs report will be released on Friday. Australia and EU CPI will be released. China PMI will be released as well. Thank you for the support.this week. Wishing you all a great weekend (PS enjoy the Olympics). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks have closed the week with gains on the day. The S&P and the Nasdaq remain lower on the week. The Dow and the small-cap Russell 2000 closed higher with the Russell 2000 the best performer on the rotation on hopes lower rates would help those companies going forward. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average rose 654.27 points or 1.64% at 40,589.35. S&P index rose 59.86 points or 1.11% at 5459.09NASDAQ index rose 176.16 points or 1.03%17357.88The small-cap Russell 2000 rose to 37.08 points or 1.67% at 2260.06.For the trading week: Dow Industrial Average average rose 0.75%.The Dow closed higher for the fourth consecutive weekS&P index fell -0.83%. The S&P index fell for the second consecutive week.NASDAQ index-2.08%. The NASDAQ index fell for the second consecutive week.Russell 2000 rose 3.466% and for the third consecutive week.Next week is a huge week with Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all scheduled to release earnings.Today:Meta Platforms +2.75%Amazon, +1.47%Alphabet -0.17%Apple +0.22%Microsoft +1.64%Tesla -0.20%Nvidia +0.71%For a list of the other companies scheduled to release can be found HERE. Of course the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday will also be a key event. The week will also end with the US jobs report on Friday (177K estimate with the unemployment rate at 4.1%). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks are moving lower with the broader S&P and Nasdaq indices below the midpoint of the days trading ranges. The indices still remain higher on the day, but in a week that has seen sharp moves lower, the leaking back to the downside is a disappointment.Looking at the Nasdaq, it is still up 144 points or 0.88%, but was up 272 points at the high with a low at +58 points. Technically,the price is trading back below the 38.2% at 17353. That level will be a barometer for buyers and sellers. The S&P was up as much as 89 points and as low as up 31.47 points. It is currently up 55 points or 1.07%. Technically, the low price this week stalled near the 38.2% near 5394.43. That is a positive in what has been a negative trading week in the S&P. The Dow is up 661 points or 1.67%. and the Russell 2000 is up 30 points or 1.38% . This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Next week will be a key earnings release week. 4 of 7 of the Magnificent 7 will be released with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple and Amazon all scheduled to report. As if that wasn’t enough, McDonald’s, Pfizer, Merck, AMD, Starbucks, Boeing, Qualcomm, Intel, Exxon Mobil and Chevron will also report. MondayBefore Open:McDonald’sPhillipsAfter Close:TilrayTuesdayBefore Open:SoFiPfizerPayPalBPP&GCorningMerckAfter Close:AMDMicrosoftStarbucksPinterestWednesdayBefore Open:BoeingKraft HeinzAltriaAfter Close:Meta (Facebook)QualcommCarvanaLam ResearchWestern DigitalThursdayBefore Open:ModernaConocoPhillipsWayfairSiriusXMAfter Close:AmazonAppleIntelCoinbaseDraftKingsFridayBefore Open:ExxonMobilChevronFrontier Communications This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Baker Hughes rig count for the current week is showing:Oil rigs +5 to 482Gas -2 to 101Total rigs, +3 to 589 The price of crude oil is down $1.28 on the week or -1.63%. Looking at the daily chart, the price of crude oil remains below the 200-day MA (green line) at $78.66. The high price today reached $78.60 just below that level. Getting above the 200-day moving average would give the buyers some added confidence. Staying below the level keeps the sellers in play and more in control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF moved lower this week helped by flight to safety flows after strong selling in the equity markets. That move lower, took the price back below its 200 day moving average near 0.8883, and the 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the December low also at that level. More momentum took the price below a swing area near 0.8819, and when that was broken, down to the 50% midpoint of the same move higher from the December 2023 low at the 0.8777 level. Technically, buyers leaned against that level – helped by rebounding stocks today – and the price of the USDCHF has moved back above the aforementioned level at 0.8819. So overall, There is strong support at the 50% midpoint at 0.8777.There is strong resistance against the 200 day moving average and 38.2% retracement at 0.8883. In between sets a swing area at 0.8819 and that level will be the rudder in the new trading week for more bullish above and more bearish below. From there, traders will need to either break above the strong resistance, or break below the strong support. To prepare for the new trading week, watch the video above. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Executive Board member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Isabel Schnabel hit the wires late on Friday noting that a single cut from the ECB doesn’t necessarily guarantee follow-up cuts, and that inflation in the EU, particularly services inflation, is proving a tricky beast to slay.

On Friday, the US Dollar, as depicted by the DXY, displayed some resilience despite encountering daily losses post the release of mixed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data.

ECBs Schnabel is speaking and she says: services inflation is showing that the last mile inflation fight is especially difficultSome data was not quite in line with projections.The ECB is not on a predetermined path. A first cut does not imply a series of cuts.Freight costs, protectionism could drive inflation.Pace and extent of ECB rate cuts will depend on the dataClosely watching sticky services prices This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices have bounced back in trading today with all the indices higher. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: German DAX, +0.68%France CAC +1.22%UK FTSE 100 +1.21%Spain’s Ibex +0.18%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12%For the trading week, most of the indices were higher with the exception of Italy’s FTSE MIBGerman DAX +1.38%France CAC, -0.22%UK FTSE 100, +1.59%Spain’s Ibex, +0.71%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.09%In the European debt market yields move lower today, Looking at the benchmark 10 year yields: Germany, -3.0 basis points at 2.403%. For the trading week, yields fell -6.3 basis here.France, -2.5 basis points at 3.11%. For the trading week, yields fell -1.9 basis pointsUK -3.7 basis points at 4.11%. For the trading week, yields fell 3.0 basis points.Spain -4.0 basis points at 3.232%. For the trading week, yields fell -2.8 basis points. Italy, -2.3 basis points at 3.762%. For the trading week, yields fell -2.4 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Gold has fallen in recent days, but after a price increase of almost $200 between the end of June and mid-July, Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Oil prices remained at just over $80, a barrel of Brent crude was temporarily as cheap as it was last at the beginning of June, Commerzbank’s Commodity Analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker for Q3 is out with its initial estimate. It sees Q3 growth at 2.8%.In their own words:The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.8 percent on July 26. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 25 was 2.8 percent, 0.2 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 24.The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 1. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.For Q2, the Atlanta forecast growth at 2.6%. The initial advanced estimate for GDP growth was released yesterday at 2.8%. The economists estimate on Reuters had a median at 2.0%. So kudos to the AtlantaFeds model. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Pound Sterling clings to minuscule gains on Friday after the latest inflation report in the United States (US) reinforced investors’ bets that the US Federal Reserve could begin slashing rates at the September monetary policy meeting.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude temporarily traded at just over $80, close to the perceived ‘pain threshold’ of the OPEC+ production cartel: At this price level, the cartel had decided in the past to cut production in order to stabilise the market, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has nudged a little higher in quiet Asian and European trade after closing on the lows yesterday, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The USDCAD broke above the “Red Box” that I have been talking about for weeks and weeks. That led to buying yesterday, but the high extreme price from April could not be broken convincingly and there was a rotation lower. However, buyers did come in near the high of the “Red Box” (see chart below and the video of course). That kept the buyers and play and the price has since rotated back to the swing high from April. Get and stay above that level increases the bullish bias.In a video look ahead to what would happen on further upside momentum and explain why. So overall, there was a break in USDCAD but there is work to do. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Euro (EUR) is flat on the day and down only modestly on the week as it holds a neutral range trade around 1.0850, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been running in tandem this week to the downside, but the NZDUSD has seen more downside momentum. Yesterday, the AUDUSD fell below its key 200 day moving average and 50% retracement near 0.6583 and 0.6579 respectively. The price then increase momentum with a break below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the April low at 0.65283. However momentum quickly shifted back to the upside on dip buying, and when the price moved back above the 61.8% retracement (at 0.65283 – see chart below), the shorts started to cover. That move higher has continued today with the price reaching a high of 0.6568.Going forward in the AUDUSD, it still takes a move above the 50% retracement at 0.65797 and the 200-day moving average at 0.6583 to give buyers added confidence. On the downside, a break back below 61.8% retracement of 0.6528, would give sellers more confidence for more downside momentum.The NZDUSD (see chart below), has been on a speedier downside path last week and into this week. For it, the price fell below at 61.8% retracement on Monday at 0.59927 and increased momentum for the rest of the week. After a brief stall at 0.5914, the price fell below that level yesterday and extended nearly to the May 1 low at 0.5873 and the April 19 low at 0.5879 (ahead of those levels). The subsequent bounce off it’s lows, has only taken the price up to 0.59045. If the buyers are to take more control they need to get above the 0.5900 level (and stay above) and then the 0.59145 level at a minimum. Absent that, and the buyers are simply not winning. The sellers are winning. Watch the video to see and here it all! This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is slightly firmer on the session and while it remains down (0.6%) on the week versus the US Dollar (USD), it remains a clearly better performer overall than its close commodity peers (AUD and NZD are both down nearly 2%), Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR/USD rises above 1.0850 as the US Dollar (USD) declines in Friday’s New York session.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls slightly to near 104.20 in Friday’s New York session after the United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) report for June.

Yesterday morning, the CNY was able to take advantage of the JPY’s strength against the US Dollar and also appreciated significantly against the greenback.

Those who still believed that the JPY’s rally was due to idiosyncratic factors that only affect the Japanese currency were disabused of that notion by 2:30 p.m.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) recovers in its most traded pairs on Friday after an over-week-long sell-off.

Prior month 68.2Current condition 62.7 versus 64.1 preliminary and 65.9 last month.Expectation 68.8 versus 67.2 preliminary, and 69.6 last month1 year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last month.5 year inflation expectations 3.0% versus 2.9% preliminary and 3.0% last monthA mix of the details compared to the preliminary. Sentiment higher employment areaCurrent conditions lower employment areaExpectations higher than preliminaryIn an interesting study chart of the consumer sentiment within the survey, those surveyed with the Top tercile of stock holdings had higher confidence, while those who did not all stocks has a much more negative view on the consumer sentiment. That is not too surprising given the relative rise in US stock markets over the last year and a half. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation above forecasts (2.9%) in July: Actual (3%)

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 66.4, above expectations (66) in July

Market OverviewToday’s session on the stock market showcased a distinct dichotomy, with the tech sector experiencing a notable surge, led primarily by semiconductor giants and a mixed bag in other segments, reflecting varying investor sentiment and sector-based dynamics.📈 Leading SectorsTech and Semiconductors: A major highlight of today’s trading was the performance of the semiconductor industry, with Nvidia (NVDA) leading with a robust gain of 2.97%. This surge underscores a growing investor confidence in tech, potentially spurred by promising industry news or earnings forecasts. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also climbed by 1.10%, supporting the bullish sentiment within the tech sphere.Consumer Cyclical and Internet Retail: Amazon (AMZN) noted a slight increase by 0.74%, which, along with Meta’s rise of 2.80%, signals a positive outlook in consumer tech and online retail sectors, likely reflecting an adaptive consumer behavior post-pandemic.📉 UnderperformersPharmaceuticals: The pharmaceutical sector saw some downturns, with Eli Lilly (LLY) dropping by 1.23%. This could indicate market reactions to regulatory news or shifts in healthcare spending.Energy Sector: The energy sector showed a mixed response with notable companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM) seeing a minor decrease of 0.68%, potentially due to fluctuating oil prices or geopolitical tensions affecting investor sentiment.Market Mood and TrendsThe overall market sentiment today appeared cautiously optimistic in tech, while more traditional sectors like energy and pharmaceuticals displayed vulnerability to external impacts. The strong performance in tech could be indicative of a deeper integration of technology in various industries and daily life, an investment theme that might continue to unfold positively.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider the current tech surge as a potential area for increasing allocations, especially in semiconductor stocks which are showing strong upward momentum. On the flip side, staying informed on developments in the pharmaceutical and energy sectors will be crucial, as these sectors could turn volatile based on socio-economic changes. Diversifying investments and closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators can help in navigating the uncertainties prevalent in today’s market dynamics.For detailed insights into specific stocks and tailored investment strategies, keep an eye on current trends and market analyses regularly provided here on ForexLive.com. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

As the opening bell rings on the major US exchanges, the major indices are trading higher. Having said that the NASDAQ index was up over 200 points in premarket trading and is currently up only 136 points. Having said that with the declines this week, any gain is accepted at this point. A snapshot of the market currently shows:Dow industrial average is trading up 447 points or 1.12% at 40,384. For the week the index is now up 0.26%S&P index is trading at 46.80 points or 0.86% at 5445.94. For the week, the index is down -1.07%NASDAQ index is trading at 143 points or 0.82% at 17323. For the week, the NASDAQ index is down -2.30%The small-cap Russell 2000 (which is higher this week by 3.24%) is trading up 38.52 points or 1.73% at 2261.42. For the week, the index is up 3.435%. Last week the index was up 1.67% and the week before the index was up 5.996%.Looking at the NASDAQ from a technical perspective, getting above 17353, and a swing area at 17494 – 17544 is needed to give the buyers some confidence and gives sellers some cause for pause on the downside.Looking at the US yields: 2-year yield 4.387%, -5.6 basis points5-year yield 4.085%, -6.0 basis points10 year yield 4.205%, -5.0 basis points30-year yield 4.460%, -3.9 basis pointsLooking at other markets:Crude oil is trading down $0.81 at $77.44. For the week, crude oil is down -1.35%Gold is trading up $14 or 0.59% at $2379.30. The price of gold is down -0.89%Silver is down four cents or -0.16% at $27.79. The price is down -4.81% this week.Bitcoin is trading higher at $67,454 ahead of the weekend conference where former Pres. Trump will give the keynote address.. Last week bitcoin closed the week at $68,158. So the price is still lower on the week, but it’s well off its low at $63,424The USDJPY has been talked about as the reason for the stock decline (open for some debate). The USDJPY moved up to technical resistance between 154.53 and 154.88, and found willing sellers. The price is back down testing the 38.2% retracement of the move up from December 2023 low at 153.65. The pair has found some support buyers on the look. With traders in stocks, trading USDJPY, holding that level and bouncing might help stocks. Conversely, breaking below 153.65, followed by more selling the USDJPY could hurt the stocks (especially the USDJPY). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD/USD pair remains steady above the immediate support of 0.6520 in Friday’s New York session after the release of the mixed United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Inflation (PCE) report for June.

In the kickstart video for July 26, 2024, I take a look at three other major currency pairs from a technical perspective – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The EURUSD is trading up and down over the last three trading days. In the buyer’s favor, the low price today stalled ahead of its 38.2% retracement of the move-up from the June low. That level comes in at 1.08394. Moving below that level would increase the bearish bias and have traders looking toward the 200-day moving average 1.0815. On the top side, the 1.0872 area is a swing level. Watch the video and find out about it. The USDJPY is seeing some upside momentum today after it held a key support level yesterday (finally). The USDJPY fall is being blamed for the decline in US stocks this week on the upwind of the carry trade (maybe a little). Nevertheless traders are watching the movement in the USDJPY to take trading clues in stocks. Technically, the USDJPY moved into a swing level between 154.52 and 154.87 and found sellers. The broken 38.2% of the move up from the December 2023 comes in at 153.65. Watch that for support.THe GBPUSD – like the EURUSD – is consolidating in up-and-down trading today. What sex out on its chart is the ability to stay up on a broken trendline (see video). The 1.2844 – 1.2860 swing area is also in play on the downside. On the top side, traders will watch 1.2879 (38.2% retracement of the move-up from the June low), and the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2892 is resistanceFind out all about it in the video. Be sure to like, share and if you have comments, put them in this post. I would love to hear from you. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Stocks fluctuated on Thursday in a big way, with the daily trading range of the S&P 500 index exceeding 100 points.

US Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, was unchanged in June at 2.60% y/y, while monthly personal income fell by more than forecast.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) remains sideways above fresh two-week low of 1.2845 against the US Dollar (USD) in Friday’s American session after the release of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) report for June.

The United States will release June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures on Friday.

The US stock market plunged on Wednesday, dragged down by a sell-off in megacap technology stocks after disappointing earnings reports from Google’s parent company, Alphabet, and electric vehicle maker Tesla. A weak start to the megacap earnings season sparked concerns about the recent bull rally fueled by the artificial intelligence boom.The Nasdaq Composite suffered its worst single-day performance in two years as key players stumbled after releasing second-quarter earnings. The tech-heavy index dropped more than 3%, losing over 650 points on Wednesday, marking its steepest decline in more than 400 trading days.Alphabet’s stock fell 5% despite posting financial figures that surpassed forecasts for both revenue and earnings. Tesla, however, dropped 13% after reporting a 45% year-over-year decline in profit.This likely triggered a chain reaction across tech stocks. Nvidia and Meta Platforms lost 6.8% and 5.6%, respectively, while Microsoft stock slid 3.6%. The high-flying and volatile group known as the Magnificent Seven saw its combined market value decrease by $768 billion by the closing bell.Wednesday’s negative reaction to the results has heightened concerns about the ability of megacap stocks to deliver strong performance. Even robust results next week from Apple, Amazon, and other tech giants may not be well-received by Wall Street.The sell-off extended beyond the Nasdaq, leaving investors with nowhere to hide. The broad-based S&P 500 fell 2.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.2%, or 504 points. This sharp decline has sparked fears that investors may have been overly optimistic about the potential returns from artificial intelligence and the impact of new tech on the market. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2.5%) in June

United States Personal Income (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.4%) in June

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.6%, above forecasts (2.5%) in June

Prior month core PCE 2.6%Core PCE MoM 0.2% versus 0.1% estimate. Unrounded was lower than the 0.2% gain at 0.188%Core PCE urine year 2.6% versus 2.5% estimate. Last month 2.6%PCE MoM 0.1% vs 0.1% estimate. The unrounded was lower than 0.1% at 0.0788%PCE YoY 2.5% versus 2.5% estimate and 2.6% priorPersonal income +0.2% versus 0.4% estimate. Prior month revised down to 0.4% from 0.5%. Wages and salaries were up 0.3%.Personal spending 0.2% versus 0.4% last month (revised from 0.3%).Savings rate came in at 3.4% versus 3.5% last monthFor the full report from the BEA click hereOther views:Annualized 3-month inflation rate 2.3% versus 2.9% prior.Annualized 6-month rate for core PCE 3.4% versus 3.3% prior.The core PCE was a bit higher than expectations which is congruent with the core PCE data released yesterday through the GDP report.Looking at the markets, yields remain lower:2 year yield 4.412%, -3.1 basis points 5-year yield 4.106%, -2.7 basis points10-year yield 4.221%, -2.5 basis points30-year yield 4.465%, master .5 basis pointsLooking at the stock futures:Dow Industrial Average average +254 pointsS&P of 43.03 pointsNASDAQ index up 200.92 pointsThe Fed pricing sees 67 basis points of cut by the end of the year with a cut in September priced in. That is little changed from pre-release levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

United States Personal Spending meets expectations (0.3%) in June

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.1%) in June: Actual (0.2%)

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) in line with expectations (0.1%) in June

EUR/JPY is at risk of recovering after the steep sell-off of the last two weeks has stalled.

Today’s data, may help the Fed with their decision next week (and going forward), as the “favored measure of inflation” (the core PCE) will be released at 8:30 AM ET. A review of the economic data to be released today, will be highlighted by that PCE data (and Personal income and spending) along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) at 10 AM ET. I have been hearing how the core PCE will be 0.18% but the Reuters estimate has it at 0.1%. Be aware. PCE price index MoM: Forecast 0.1% versus 0.0% last month. YoY estimate 2.5% versus 2.6% last month. Core PCE Price Index m/m: Forecast 0.2% versus 0.1% last month. Estimate 2.5% versus 2.6% last monthPersonal Income m/m: Estimate 0.4% versus 0.5% last monthPersonal Spending m/m: Estimate 0.3% versus 0.2% last monthRevised UoM Consumer Sentiment: Estimate 66.0 versus 68.2 last month and 66.0 preliminaryRevised current conditions: Preliminary 64.1. Last month 65.9Revised expectations: Preliminary 67.2. Last month 69.61-year inflation expectations. Preliminary 2.9% versus 3.0% last month5-year inflation expectations. Preliminary 2.9% versus 3.0% last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

I posted this during the Asian time zone, repeating it here. Before I do, check this out:—Due at 0830 US Eastern time, the Core PCE data is the focus. You can see the median estimates below in the table. The ranges (why these are important is explained below) of estimates are: Core PCE Price Index m/m-0.1% to +0.2%and for the y/y2.4% to 2.6%This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that is the consensus median expected.***Why is knowledge of such ranges important?Data results that fall outside of market low and high expectations tend to move markets more significantly for several reasons:Surprise Factor: Markets often price in expectations based on forecasts and previous trends. When data significantly deviates from these expectations, it creates a surprise effect. This can lead to rapid revaluation of assets as investors and traders reassess their positions based on the new information.Psychological Impact: Investors and traders are influenced by psychological factors. Extreme data points can evoke strong emotional reactions, leading to overreactions in the market. This can amplify market movements, especially in the short term.Risk Reassessment: Unexpected data can lead to a reassessment of risk. If data significantly underperforms or outperforms expectations, it can change the perceived risk of certain investments. For instance, better-than-expected economic data may reduce the perceived risk of investing in equities, leading to a market rally.Triggering of Automated Trading: In today’s markets, a significant portion of trading is done by algorithms. These automated systems often have pre-set conditions or thresholds that, when triggered by unexpected data, can lead to large-scale buying or selling.Impact on Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Data that is significantly off from expectations can influence the policies of central banks and governments. For example, in the case of the inflation data due today, weaker than expected will fuel speculation of nearer and larger Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cuts. A stronger (i.e. higher) CPI report will diminish such expectations.Liquidity and Market Depth: In some cases, extreme data points can affect market liquidity. If the data is unexpected enough, it might lead to a temporary imbalance in buyers and sellers, causing larger market moves until a new equilibrium is found.Chain Reactions and Correlations: Financial markets are interconnected. A significant move in one market or asset class due to unexpected data can lead to correlated moves in other markets, amplifying the overall market impact. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. That combination reverses what has been more of a familiar theme with the AUD (or NZD) weakest and the JPY the strongest. Not surprisingly, there is a rebound in US stocks in the pre-market which is helping the reversal. The Nasdaq is up 200 points (currently) in premarket futures trading. That reverses the -160 point decline from yesterday. Nevertheless, the major US indices are on pace for a declines this week. The unwind of the USDJPY and the so called “carry trade” where some investors borrow the yen at low rates to invest in USD assets (or other countries assets) for better returns,has been an excuse for the flow of funds out of some assets and into others.Having said that, the Nikkei 225 had its worst day since 2021 this week. Bitcoin, oil, silver, copper and even gold fell this week. So there may be selling of the USD and liquidation in things like the US stocks but it seems to be going into cash. It will be interested how this story unwinds. Of course, when you have moves like we have had this week especially out of assets like the Magnificent 7, it is always fun to find the “reason” (i.e. carry trade unwind), but it just can be “taking profit” and yes parking in cash or money market for a while. The Fed does meet next week, and with 2% or thereabout growth in the 1H of 2024, it may make it hard to cut. So parking funds for a while and buy a dip might be a sound idea. BTW, The BOJ does meet next week,and the market is pricing in a 65% chance for a 10 basis point rise in rates. The US Fed also meets and the focus by the markets is on the central bank starting the cuts in September. Today’s data, may help the Fed with that decision as the favored measure of inflation (the core PCE) will be released at 8:30 AM ET. A review of the economic data to be released today, will be highlighted by the PCE data along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) at 10 AM ET. :PCE price index MoM: Forecast 0.1% versus 0.0% last month. YoY estimate 2.5% versus 2.6% last month. Core PCE Price Index m/m: Forecast 0.2% versus 0.1% last month. Estimate 2.5% versus 2.6% last monthPersonal Income m/m: Estimate 0.4% versus 0.5% last monthPersonal Spending m/m: Estimate 0.3% versus 0.2% last monthRevised UoM Consumer Sentiment: Estimate 66.0 versus 68.2 last month and 66.0 preliminaryRevised current conditions: Preliminary 64.1. Last month 65.9Revised expectations: Preliminary 67.2. Last month 69.61 year inflation expectations. Preliminary 2.9% versus 3.0% last month5 year inflation expectations. Preliminary 2.9% versus 3.0% last monthA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows:Crude oil is trading down $0.37 at $77.91. Although lower today, at this time yesterday, the price was even lower at $76.36. The price is down -0.80% for the weekGold is trading up $7.80 or 0.33% at $2373. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $2371.44. For the week the price of gold is down -1.07%.Silver is trading down eight cents or -0.32% at $27.73. At this time yesterday, the price is trading at $27.57. For the week the price of silver has tumbled -5.02% which comes after 8-5.10% decline last week.Bitcoin trading higher at $67,298 (well there is some buying in bitcoin today) . At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $64,208Ethereum is trading higher as well as $3246. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $3174.03In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are trading higher.Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 287.93 points. Yesterday, the Dow Industrial Average rebounded with a gain of 81.20 points or 0.20% to 39935.08.S&P futures are implying a gain of 47.78 points erasing the declines from yesterday. Yesterday, the S&P index closed lower by -27.89 points or -0.51% at 5399.23. The S&P is on pace for back-to-back weeks of 2% declines.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 223 points . Yesterday, the index closed lower by -160.69 points or -0.93% at 17181.72. Coming into today (with the gains, it may not play out), the NASDAQ was on pace for back-to-back weeks of -3% declines (at the close yesterday the index was down -3.08% after falling -3.68% last week). It hasn’t done that since September 2022.Yesterday, the Russell 2000 index rose by 27.60 points or 1.26% at 2222.98.European stock indices are trading mostly higher. For the week the indices are also mixed:German DAX, +0.49%. The index is up 1.19% this week. France CAC, +0.91%. The index is down -0.56% this week. UK FTSE 100, +0.85%. The index is up 1.22%.Spain’s Ibex, -0.07%. The index is up 0.44% this week. Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.25% (delayed 10 minutes). The index is down -1.01 percent this weekShares in the Asian Pacific markets closed lower:.Japan’s Nikkei 225, -0.53%. For the week the Nikkei fell -5.98% it’s worse decline since April 15 week when it tumbled -6.21%. China’s Shanghai Composite Index, +0.14%. For the week it fell -3.06%.Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, +0.10%. For the week it fell -2.28%.Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.76%. For the week the index fell -0.60%.Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading mixed:2-year yield 4.434%, -0.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.366%. 2-year yield are currently down -7.8 basis points this week5-year yield 4.132%, -1.2 base points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.088%. Currently the 5-year yield is down -3.6 basis points this week.10-year yield 4.240%, -1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.225%. Currently, the 10 year yield is unchanged this week30-year yield 4.481%, -1.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.495%. Currently, the 30-year yield is up 3.4 basis points.Looking at the treasury yield curve,The 2-10 year spread is at -19.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -14.4 basis points. Currently, the spread is up 8.0 basis points this week The 2-30 year spread is +4.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was 12.6 basis points. Currently, the spread is up 11.0 basis points this week In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are lower: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD has risen to the top of the range it has been trading in since the middle of April.

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ down to $-1.944B in June from previous $0.971B

Mexico Trade Balance, $ below forecasts ($1B) in June: Actual ($-1.037B)

Headlines:All eyes turn to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation nextUSD/JPY volatility stays in focus after the bounce yesterdayUS futures continue to pull higher on the dayFrance July consumer confidence 91 vs 90 expectedEurozone consumers see inflation at 2.8% in the next 12 months – ECB surveyTrump wants a weaker dollar but will he get his wish?Markets:AUD leads, JPY lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.7%US 10-year yields down 1.9 bps to 4.236%Gold up 0.4% to $2,373.24WTI crude down 0.3% to $76.85Bitcoin up 3.0% to $67,231Markets are taking a bit of a breather today, following the volatile risk selloff in the last few days.Equities are faring better with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.7% as tech shares are finding some respite. European indices are also holding higher, with the French CAC 40 index seen up 0.9% though still largely down on the week.In FX, USD/JPY is also keeping with the overnight bounce in a push to 154.70 from around 153.80 earlier in the session. The 100-hour moving average for the pair is seen at 154.83 and will be a key near-term level to watch before the weekend.As we see traders sense some relief, AUD/USD is also seen higher by 0.3% to 0.6560 while USD/CHF is also up 0.2% to 0.8835 on the day. The latter fell to its lowest since March yesterday but staved off a firm break below 0.8800 at least.In other markets, gold is also up 0.4% to $2,373 while Bitcoin is up roughly 3% to $67,231 currently.It’s all pointing to just a bit of respite as all eyes turn to the US PCE report next. That will be the make or break for overall sentiment before we close out the week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Broader markets are seeking a respite today and if that is to hold, it will need the next key US inflation indicator to play ball. So far, risk trades are sensing some relief today after a rough week. But can it hold through until the weekend?The expectation for the US PCE price index is for the monthly reading to come in at +0.1% for both the headline and core estimates. Meanwhile, the annual reading is expected to be at +2.5% for both the headline and core estimates as well. However, Goldman Sachs argues that we could see the core reading be at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y with the latter unchanged from May.The narrative at the moment is that the disinflation process in the US is continuing to take hold. However, it is moving at a rather gradual pace. And given the circumstances, there might be bumps in the road as per what policymakers are expecting as well.So, even with a 2.6% reading in the core annual estimate today, it’s not a major setback to the Fed.But with markets pretty much sitting on edge this week, any readings above that could easily spook investors. And all of the early gains we’re seeing in stocks and risk could be in jeopardy before the weekend comes along. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

That is leading to a much better mood in broader markets so far today. USD/JPY is also now trading up by 0.2% to 154.25 with the dollar keeping marginally lower elsewhere. While still in narrow ranges, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both up 0.1% to 1.0851 and 1.2865 respectively.Besides that, gold is also seen higher by 0.4% to $2,374 after having fallen by 1.4% in trading yesterday.In Europe, stocks are also nudging higher now with the DAX up 0.2% and the CAC 40 up 0.9% on the day.It’s all pointing to a slight reprieve after the continued selloff in risk over the last few days. But there’s still one final hurdle to get through in the US PCE price index later. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Life insurance is often viewed purely as a means of financial protection for loved ones. However, it also presents unique opportunities for traders looking to unlock additional capital. In the UK, using life insurance as a financial tool can provide traders with a flexible and secure way to boost their trading funds. This article delves into the mechanics of leveraging life insurance policies for trading capital, offering strategies, benefits, and considerations specific to the UK market.Understanding Life InsuranceTypes of Life Insurance PoliciesIn the UK, there are several types of life insurance policies, each with unique features and benefits:Term Life Insurance: Provides coverage for a specified term. If the policyholder dies during this period, the beneficiaries receive a payout. There is no cash value component.Whole Life Insurance: Offers lifetime coverage and includes a savings component that builds cash value over time.Universal Life Insurance: Similar to whole life but with more flexibility in premium payments and death benefits. It also accumulates cash value.Key Features and BenefitsEach type of life insurance has distinct advantages:Term Life Insurance: Lower premiums, straightforward coverage.Whole Life Insurance: Guaranteed death benefit, cash value accumulation, potential dividends.Universal Life Insurance: Flexibility in adjusting premiums and death benefits, cash value growth tied to market performance.Leveraging Life Insurance for CapitalExplanation of Borrowing Against Life InsuranceIn the UK, policyholders with whole or universal life insurance can borrow against the cash value of their policies. This process involves taking a loan from the insurance provider, using the policy’s cash value as collateral. The loan amount can typically be up to 90% of the cash value.How the Cash Value Can Be AccessedThe cash value in a life insurance policy grows tax-deferred. Policyholders can access these funds through policy loans or withdrawals. Loans are often preferred because they do not trigger a taxable event as long as the policy remains active.Advantages of Using Life Insurance as Collateral for LoansNo Credit Checks: Borrowing against life insurance does not require a credit check.Low-Interest Rates: Policy loans often have lower interest rates compared to other forms of borrowing.Flexible Repayment: Repayment schedules can be flexible, and interest can be added to the loan balance rather than requiring immediate payments.Strategies for TradersShort-Term Trading StrategiesUsing life insurance loans for short-term trades can provide quick capital without the need for extensive credit applications. Traders can seize market opportunities promptly, leveraging the borrowed funds for potential quick gains.Long-Term Investment StrategiesFor long-term investments, the steady growth of the cash value in a life insurance policy can provide a reliable source of capital. Traders can use these funds to invest in diversified portfolios, balancing risk and reward.Risk Management and DiversificationLife insurance capital can be part of a broader risk management strategy. By diversifying the sources of their trading capital, traders can mitigate risks associated with market volatility.Tax Implications and ConsiderationsTax BenefitsIn the UK, the growth of the cash value in life insurance policies is tax-deferred. Policy loans do not create a taxable event, making them a tax-efficient way to access funds.Potential Tax LiabilitiesIf the policy lapses or is surrendered, any outstanding loan amounts may be considered taxable income. It’s crucial to manage the policy carefully to avoid unintended tax consequences.Regulatory Considerations and ComplianceTraders must comply with UK regulations regarding life insurance policies and financial transactions. Consulting with a financial advisor can ensure adherence to these regulations.Risks and ChallengesPotential DownsidesBorrowing against life insurance is not without risks. The loan balance accrues interest, and excessive borrowing can deplete the policy’s cash value, risking policy lapse.Risk of Policy LapseIf the policy lapses due to unpaid loans or insufficient cash value, the policyholder could face significant financial and tax consequences.Strategies to Mitigate RisksTo mitigate risks, traders should:Regularly monitor the policy’s cash value.Make timely interest payments.Avoid borrowing more than necessary.Expert Opinions and InsightsInterviews with Financial Advisors and Insurance ExpertsFinancial advisors in the UK emphasize the importance of understanding the terms and conditions of life insurance loans. They recommend consulting with professionals to ensure informed decisions.Insights from Successful TradersTraders who have successfully used life insurance loans often highlight the benefits of careful planning and risk management. Their insights can guide others considering this strategy.Professional Advice on Best Practices and Common PitfallsExperts advise:Maintaining a conservative borrowing approach.Regularly reviewing policy statements.Seeking professional guidance for complex financial decisions.ConclusionUsing life insurance as capital provides UK traders with a unique and flexible funding source. By understanding the mechanics, benefits, and risks, traders can strategically leverage their life insurance policies to enhance their trading activities. With careful planning and professional advice, life insurance can be a powerful tool in a trader’s financial arsenal. It’s also important to consider your age when evaluating your life insurance needs. For those looking into life insurance over 60, the approach may differ slightly. While premiums are generally higher for older individuals, it’s still possible to find affordable options by carefully assessing your coverage needs and shopping around for the best deals.Additional ResourcesContact information for financial advisors specializing in this area.Tools and calculators for assessing the value of life insurance policies. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Forex sentiment analysis: Dive into the latest data on GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY. How are retail traders positioned in these major pairs?

Discover what to expect from Apple’s Q3 earnings report on 2 August, with a focus on financial forecasts, share repurchases, and the tech giant’s strategy as it navigates challenges in China.

US real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, beating market forecasts, according to the advance estimate.

Tesla issued a disappointing set of Q2 earnings last night, driving the stock price lower.

USD/JPY bearish trend accelerates. Examine key support levels, BoJ meeting probabilities, and the yen’s resurgence in the forex market.

The German Composite PMI fell to a four-month low and back into contraction territory in July, strengthening the case for further rate cuts in the Euro Area.

Meta is scheduled to report its second quarter (Q2) earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, July 31st, 2024

Ethereum spot ETFs have been finally given the green light to start trading, but can they replicate Bitcoin’s ETF success?

The Japanese yen outperforms the Aussie dollar in early trading as the AUD selloff continues. What does retail positioning suggest about future price movements?

Alphabet, Google’s parent company, is scheduled to report second quarter earnings on 23 July 2024 after US markets close. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect and watch for.

AUD/USD bearish trend: Investigate support levels, positioning shifts, and macro factors relevant to the pair. Global politics likely to be a major factor for the Aussie in the coming months

Humans excel at processing vast arrays of visual information, a skill that is crucial for achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI). Over the decades, AI researchers have developed Visual Question Answering (VQA) systems to interpret scenes within single images and answer related questions. While recent advancements in foundation models have significantly closed the gap between human and machine visual processing, conventional VQA has been restricted to reason about only single images at a time rather than whole collections of visual data. This limitation poses challenges in more complex scenarios. Take, for example, the challenges of discerning patterns in collections of medical images, monitoring deforestation through satellite imagery, mapping urban changes using autonomous navigation data, analyzing thematic elements across large art collections, or understanding consumer behavior from retail surveillance footage. Each of these scenarios entails not only visual processing across hundreds or thousands of images but also necessitates cross-image processing of these findings. To address this gap, this project focuses on the “Multi-Image Question Answering” (MIQA) task, which exceeds the reach of traditional VQA systems. Visual Haystacks: the first “visual-centric” Needle-In-A-Haystack (NIAH) benchmark designed to rigorously evaluate Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) in processing long-context visual information. How to Benchmark VQA Models on MIQA? The “Needle-In-A-Haystack” (NIAH) challenge has recently become one of the most popular paradigms for benchmarking LLM’s ability to process inputs containing “long contexts”, large sets of input data (such as long documents, videos, or hundreds of images). In this task, essential information (“the needle”), which contains the answer to a specific question, is embedded within a vast amount of data (“the haystack”). The system must then retrieve the relevant information and answer the question correctly. The first NIAH benchmark for visual reasoning was introduced by Google in the Gemini-v1.5 technical report. In this report, they asked their models to retrieve text overlaid on a single frame in a large video. It turns out that existing models perform quite well on this task—primarily due to their strong OCR retrieval capabilities. But what if we ask more visual questions? Do models still perform as well? What is the Visual Haystacks (VHs) Benchmark? In pursuit of evaluating “visual-centric” long-context reasoning capabilities, we introduce the “Visual Haystacks (VHs)” benchmark. This new benchmark is designed to assess Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) in visual retrieval and reasoning across large uncorrelated image sets. VHs features approximately 1K binary question-answer pairs, with each set containing anywhere from 1 to 10K images. Unlike previous benchmarks that focused on textual retrieval and reasoning, VHs questions center on identifying the presence of specific visual content, such as objects, utilizing images and annotations from the COCO dataset. The VHs benchmark is divided into two main challenges, each designed to test the model’s ability to accurately locate and analyze relevant images before responding to queries. We have carefully designed the dataset to ensure that guessing or relying on common sense reasoning without viewing the image won’t get any advantages (i.e., resulting in a 50% accuracy rate on a binary QA task). Single-Needle Challenge: Only a single needle image exists in the haystack of images. The question is framed as, “For the image with the anchor object, is there a target object?” Multi-Needle Challenge: Two to five needle images exist in the haystack of images. The question is framed as either, “For all images with the anchor object, do all of them contain the target object?” or “For all images with the anchor object, do any of them contain the target object?” Three Important Findings from VHs The Visual Haystacks (VHs) benchmark reveals significant challenges faced by current Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) when processing extensive visual inputs. In our experiments1 across both single and multi-needle modes, we evaluated several open-source and proprietary methods including LLaVA-v1.5, GPT-4o, Claude-3 Opus, and Gemini-v1.5-pro. Additionally, we include a “Captioning” baseline, employing a two-stage approach where images are initially captioned using LLaVA, followed by answering the question using the captions’ text content with Llama3. Below are three pivotal insights: Struggles with Visual Distractors In single-needle settings, a notable decline in performance was observed as the number of images increased, despite maintaining high oracle accuracy—a scenario absent in prior text-based Gemini-style benchmarks. This shows that existing models may mainly struggle with visual retrieval, especially in the presence of challenging visual distractors. Furthermore, it’s crucial to highlight the constraints on open-source LMMs like LLaVA, which can handle only up to three images due to a 2K context length limit. On the other hand, proprietary models such as Gemini-v1.5 and GPT-4o, despite their claims of extended context capabilities, often fail to manage requests when the image count exceeds 1K, due to payload size limits when using the API call. Performance on VHs for single-needle questions. All models experience significant falloff as the size of the haystack (N) increases, suggesting none of them are robust against visual distractors. E: Exceeds context length. Difficulty Reasoning Across Multiple Images Interestingly, all LMM-based methods showed weak performance with 5+ images in single-image QA and all multi-needle settings compared to a basic approach chaining a captioning model (LLaVA) with an LLM aggregator (Llama3). This discrepancy suggests that while LLMs are capable of integrating long-context captions effectively, existing LMM-based solutions are inadequate for processing and integrating information across multiple images. Notably, the performance hugely deteriorates in multi-image scenarios, with Claude-3 Opus showing weak results with only oracle images, and Gemini-1.5/GPT-4o dropping to 50% accuracy (just like a random guess) with larger sets of 50 images. Results on VHs for multi-needle questions. All visually-aware models perform poorly, indicating that models find it challenging to implicitly integrate visual information. Phenomena in Visual Domain Finally, we found that the accuracy of LMMs is hugely affected by the position of the needle image within the input sequence. For instance, LLaVA shows better performance when the needle image is placed immediately before the question, suffering up to a 26.5% drop otherwise. In contrast, proprietary models generally perform better when the image is positioned at the start, experiencing up to a 28.5% decrease when not. This pattern echoes the “lost-in-the-middle” phenomenon seen in the field of Natural Language Processing (NLP), where crucial information positioned at the beginning or end of the context influences model performance. This issue was not evident in previous Gemini-style NIAH evaluation, which only required text retrieval and reasoning, underscoring the unique challenges posed by our VHs benchmark. Needle position vs. performance on VHs for various image settings. Existing LMMs show up to 41% performance drop when the needle is not ideally placed. Gray boxes: Exceeds context length. MIRAGE: A RAG-based Solution for Improved VHs Performance Based on the experimental results above, it is clear that the core challenges of existing solutions in MIQA lie in the ability to (1) accurately retrieve relevant images from a vast pool of potentially unrelated images without positional biases and (2) integrate relevant visual information from these images to correctly answer the question. To address these issues, we introduce an open-source and simple single-stage training paradigm, “MIRAGE” (Multi-Image Retrieval Augmented Generation), which extends the LLaVA model to handle MIQA tasks. The image below shows our model architecture. Our proposed paradigm consists of several components, each designed to alleviate key issues in the MIQA task: Compress existing encodings: The MIRAGE paradigm leverages a query-aware compression model to reduce the visual encoder tokens to a smaller subset (10x smaller), allowing for more images in the same context length. Employ retriever to filter out irrelevant message: MIRAGE uses a retriever trained in-line with the LLM fine-tuning, to predict if an image will be relevant, and dynamically drop irrelevant images. Multi-Image Training Data: MIRAGE augments existing single-image instruction fine-tuning data with multi-image reasoning data, and synthetic multi-image reasoning data. Results We revisit the VHs benchmark with MIRAGE. In addition to being capable of handling 1K or 10K images, MIRAGE achieves state-of-the-art performance on most single-needle tasks, despite having a weaker single-image QA backbone with only 32 tokens per image! We also benchmark MIRAGE and other LMM-based models on a variety of VQA tasks. On multi-image tasks, MIRAGE demonstrates strong recall and precision capabilities, significantly outperforming strong competitors like GPT-4, Gemini-v1.5, and the Large World Model (LWM). Additionally, it shows competitive single-image QA performance. Finally, we compare MIRAGE’s co-trained retriever with CLIP. Our retriever performs significantly better than CLIP without losing efficiency. This shows that while CLIP models can be good retrievers for open-vocabulary image retrieval, they may not work well when dealing with question-like texts! Final Remarks In this work, we develop the Visual Haystacks (VHs) benchmark and identified three prevalent deficiencies in existing Large Multimodal Models (LMMs): Struggles with Visual Distractors: In single-needle tasks, LMMs exhibit a sharp performance decline as the number of images increases, indicating a significant challenge in filtering out irrelevant visual information. Difficulty Reasoning Across Multiple Images: In multi-needle settings, simplistic approaches like captioning followed by language-based QA outperform all existing LMMs, highlighting LMMs’ inadequate ability to process information across multiple images. Phenomena in Visual Domain: Both proprietary and open-source models display sensitivity to the position of the needle information within image sequences, exhibiting a “loss-in-the-middle” phenomenon in the visual domain. In response, we propose MIRAGE, a pioneering visual Retriever-Augmented Generator (visual-RAG) framework. MIRAGE addresses these challenges with an innovative visual token compressor, a co-trained retriever, and augmented multi-image instruction tuning data. After exploring this blog post, we encourage all future LMM projects to benchmark their models using the Visual Haystacks framework to identify and rectify potential deficiencies before deployment. We also urge the community to explore multi-image question answering as a means to advance the frontiers of true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Last but not least, please check out our project page, and arxiv paper, and click the star button in our github repo! @article{wu2024visual, title={Visual Haystacks: Answering Harder Questions About Sets of Images}, author={Wu, Tsung-Han and Biamby, Giscard and and Quenum, Jerome and Gupta, Ritwik and Gonzalez, Joseph E and Darrell, Trevor and Chan, David M}, journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.13766}, year={2024} } All these experiments were conducted in April and May, and we have observed some improvements in some proprietary models such as Gemini since then. ↩

Gold is trading back around the $2,400/oz. level after posting a fresh multi-decade high earlier this week. The backdrop for the precious metal still remains positive.

The European Central Bank left policy rates unchanged earlier, inline with market expectations, with the September meeting, and updated staff projections, now key.

UK jobs data came in largely in line with expectations with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4% while average earnings eased to 5.7%. Claimant count remains a concern

Microsoft Corp is set to release its quarter four (Q4) financial results on 30 July 2024, after US market closes.

Yen surges against USD amid speculation of more Japanese intervention. Explore the factors driving this sudden shift and its implications for forex traders

UK inflation remained little changed in June with higher hotel and restaurant costs underpinning last month’s data.

Gold is within touching distance of posting a fresh all-time high as US interest rate cut bets increase