NEWS & MEDIA

Before we get into October, let’s take a look back at how the seasonals did in September. At the end of August, I highlighted some trends in the month, including weakness in the S&P 500 and MSCI world index. Ultimately, both stuck to the seasonal script.Another one I highlighted was yen weakness (USD/JPY rose 205 pips in the month). One I find particularly interesting is NZD/USD strength. That historical pattern goes against the usual risk aversion in September and it did once again this year as NZD/USD made slight gains this month. USD/CAD also bucks the trend as the loonie often gains and that was true for most of this month before giving it back in the final day of Sept.Oil tends to decline in Sept (it certainly didn’t this year) while natural gas tends to climb (it did this year again). Those trends in the energy market continue in October, which is a particularly cruel month for WTI.Here are the seasonal highlights for October 2023 (20 year avgs):10-year Treasury yields rise more in Oct than another other monthThird-best month of the year for AUDFourth best month for the Dollar IndexSecond-best month for the MSCI world indexWeakest month for EUR/AUDThird weakest month for the euroThird-best month for the Nasdaq (and not far off from the best), though volatility is high with double digit gains/losses not uncommonFourth best month for the S&P 500Third best month for the DAXStrongest month of the year for natural gasWeakest month of the year for oil This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

UPCOMING EVENTS:Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions, Swiss Retail Sales, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.Tuesday: RBA Policy Decision, Swiss CPI, US Job Openings.Wednesday: RBNZ Policy Decision, Eurozone Retail Sales, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, US ISM Services PMI.Thursday: US Challenger Job Cuts, US Jobless Claims.Friday: Japan Wage data, Swiss Unemployment Rate, US NFP, Canada Jobs report. MondayThe Eurozone Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.4%. The labour market remains tight and central banks would like to see it softening to have more confidence on a timely and sustainable achievement of their inflation targets. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick higher to 47.7 vs. 47.6 prior. As a reminder, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, although it remains in contraction, and overall the comments point to stagnation in activity. TuesdayThe RBA is expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.10%. The RBA expected headline inflation to pick up in Q3 due to higher energy prices and highlighted that the labour market could be at a turning point. Indeed, the latest labour market report was lacklustre as the bulk of jobs added were part time and the latest monthly CPI showed a pick up in headline inflation with the Core measure decreasing. The US Job Openings will be one of the top releases this week as the big miss in the previous month caused some notable moves in the markets due to the focus on the labour market data. The consensus sees Job Openings to remain basically unchanged for August at 8.83M vs. 8.827M for July. WednesdayThe RBNZ is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.50%. The central bank is confident that with the current level of interest rates inflation will return to target and it’s ready to look through some strength in the data in the near term as communicated in the latest policy statement. The US ADP is a labour market report and as such it has the potential to move the markets. The consensus sees 160K jobs added in September compared to 177K prior.The US ISM Services PMI is expected to tick lower to 53.6 vs. 54.5 prior. The latest S&P Global US Services PMI missed expectations, although the index remained in expansion. Again, the comments pointed to contracting demand and waning activity.ThursdayThe US Jobless Claims data continues to be one of the top releases each week as the focus has now turned more towards the labour market. Last week, the data beat expectations again in a sign that the labour market remains solid for now. There’s no consensus at the moment, but keep an eye on it as it remains a key labour market report. FridayThe Japanese wage data is going to be important for the BoJ as the central bank continues to repeat that it wants to see a solid growth in wages to be confident on a sustainable achievement of their inflation target and the consequent exit from monetary easing. Notably, the data has been trending lower in the past few months. The US NFP is expected to show 163K jobs added in September compared to 187K seen in August and the Unemployment Rate to tick lower to 3.7% vs. 3.8% in the prior month. The Average Hourly Earnings will also be a key metric to watch with the yearly growth seen at 4.3% vs. 4.3% prior and the monthly one at 0.3% vs. 0.2% prior. Also, watch out for the revisions as the prior months continue to be revised downwards. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

China Caixin Services PMI fell from previous 51.8 to 50.2 in September

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.6 below forecasts (51.2) in September

South Korea Trade Balance registered at $3.7B above expectations ($1.75B) in September

Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50.0 (prior 49.7)Non-manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 51.5 expected (prior 51.0)The official manufacturing PMI is the important one and it rose above 50 for the first time since March 2023. That line signals expansion/contraction, so while it’s a small beat on expectations, it’s an important one.Notably, China is on holiday all next week. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD:USDJPY:GBPUSD:USDCAD:AUDUSD:NZDUSD: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil technical analysis shows Q4 could take prices towards the $100 mark but remain around overbought levels which could limit upside

China Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.7, above expectations (51.5) in August

China NBS Manufacturing PMI above forecasts (50) in August: Actual (50.2)

Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos climbed from previous -77.562B to -38.94B in August

Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos: -512B (August) vs previous -77.562B

The Mexican Peso (MXN) stages a strong comeback versus the US Dollar (USD) after the Bank of Mexico – also known as Banxico – kept rates unchanged, di

The GBP/USD sank just south of the 1.2200 handle heading into the Friday market close, and the pair finds itself still struggling under the weight of

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) saw both a new high and a new low against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the USD/CAD slumping to a session low of 1.341

The AUD/USD has slipped over 65 pips on Friday to slide back into the 0.6430 neighborhood as the US Dollar Index (DXY) catches a broad-market lift in

US August core PCE +3.9% y/y vs +3.9% expectedCanada GDP month-to-month for July 0.0% versus 0.1% estimateUS advanced good trade balance for August -84.27B versus $-91.4 billion estimateUS August advanced wholesale inventories -0.1% versus -0.2% priorSeptember final UMich US consumer sentiment 68.1 vs 67.7 expectedBaker Hughes US oil rig count 116 vs 118 priorFeds Williams: Fed is at or near peak for federal funds rateOPEC+: Ministerial panel unlikely to recommend output policy change at October 4 meetingEIA: US overall crude oil production up 0.7% to 12.99M BPD in July. Highest since Nov 2019Canada July budget deficit of C$4.86 billion vs $3.87 billion a year agoUAW to expand strike against Ford and GMECB’s Villeroy: Recent volatility in long bonds has been somewhat excessiveUS Senator Dianne Feinstein has died at 90 – reportMarkets:Gold down $16 to $1848WTI crude oil down 78-cents to $90.93US 10-year yields down 0.2 bps to 4.57%S&P 500 down 12 points to 4288AUD leads, CAD lagsThe quarter ended with some drama as the US dollar shot higher, recouping losses from European and Asian trading and in some cases making new highs. USD/CAD was particularly strong as oil prices reversed lower to finish the week flat.Once again, Treasury yields turned higher after an early slide. That took down equity markets, which finished largely flat after a strong open.The reasons for the moves were more to do with quarter-end flows than fundamentals as the inflation numbers in the PCE report were slightly soft and Williams tilted dovish.Gold was battered once again in a fall to the lowest since mid-March.The US dollar had been much softer going into North American trade but it gained strongly and broadly to finish largely unchanged on the day. That wraps up trading for the week, month and quarter. I’ll have the October seasonals up on the weekend so check in.Have a great weekend. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 328.4K to 350.1K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions rose from previous $-139K to $-89.3K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions dipped from previous $135.2K to $115.8K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions climbed from previous $-96.9K to $-86.8K

European Monetary Union CFTC EUR NC Net Positions down to €98.4K from previous €102K

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions down to £15.7K from previous £33.7K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-109.5K vs previous ¥-101.6K

The EUR/USD clings to its early gains after traveling towards a daily high of 1.0617 but offers dragged prices below the 1.0600 mark. This happened de

The major indices are closing mixed today with the Dow Industrial Average average fearing the worst. The NASDAQ index eked out a small gain for the day. The S&P was lower.A snapshot of the closing levels shows:Dow industrial average fell -157.50 points or -0.47% at 33508.86S&P index -11.46 points or -0.27% at 4288.23NASDAQ index rose 18.04 points or 0.14% at 13219.31For the month of September, all three major indices closed lower. The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices had the worst trading month in 2023 (and worst month since December 2023). Looking at the month declines:Dow industrial average fell -3.50%S&P index -4.87%NASDAQ index fell -5.81%Today is also the closing level for the 3rd quarter, and each of the major indices closed lowerDow Industrial Average fell -2.60%. That was the 1st negative quarter since the 3Q of 2022S&P index fell -3.65%. That too was the 1st negative quarter since the 3Q of 2022NASDAQ index fell -4.12%, which was the first negative quarter since the 4Q of 2022For the trading year – with one more quarter to go):Dow industrial average is up 1.09%S&P index is up 11.68%NASDAQ index is up 26.30%Interest rates moved higher this quarter – especially out the yield curve – which helped to depress stock levels:2-year yield rose 15.8 basis points or 3.22%5-year yield rose 46.2 basis points or 11.10%10-year yield moved up 73.8 basis points or 19.20%30-year yield rose 84 basis points or 21.71%The 2 – 10 year spread steepened by 58 basis points, but is still negative by -47 basis pointsThe 2 – 30 year spread steepened by 69 basis points, but is still negative by -35 basis pointsIn other markets:Crude oil for the quarter rose $20.27 or 28.68%Gold prices this quarter fell $-71.50 or -3.733%Silver prices fell 59.6 cents or -2.62%.Bitcoin fell $-3535 or 11.61%. Bitcoin still has another 2 days of trading before it’s month end.In Forex for the 3Q, the US dollar was higher against all the major currency pairs with the largest gain versus the GBP. The smallest gain was averse the CHF (2.28%).:The US dollar index rose 328 pips to 106.204. That’s a gain of 3.19%EURUSD fell -340 pips or -3.16% (USD higher)USDJPY rose 515 pips or 3.57% (USD higher)GBPUSD fell -491 pips or -3.87% (USD higher)USDCHF rose 204 pips or 2.28% (USD higher)USDCAD rose 340 pips or 2.56% (USD higher)AUDUSD fell -223 pips or -3.35% (USD higher)NZDUSD fell -143 pips or -2.32% (USD higher) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The West Texas Intermediary (WTI) crude oil charts are deflating after reaching a near-term peak near $94/bbl, but profit-taking and investors waking

Analysts at CIBC point out that recent swings in Canadian monthly GDP have been driven mainly by supply disruptions, such as wildfires and the port st

In this video, I take a look at the NZDUSD and outlines the key technical levels in play heading into the new trading week starting October 2, 2023. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The upcoming week is expected to see the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hold interest rates steady. The fo

The USDJPY had a volatile down and up trading day with the full 100 pip move to the downside in the first half of the day, nearly fully retracted in the 2nd half of the day. The low price today moved to the 200-hour moving average and the picture set midpoint of the move up from last week’s low at 148.507. Support buyers leaned against that level, and pushed the price higher. After trading above and below the 100-hour moving average for a few hours, traders based against the level, and pushed higher. That move to the upside stall just short of the high from earlier today near 149.50.Going into next week, the 100-hour movie at 149.156 will be the close support and will be a barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish.A move to the downside would have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 148.79, and then the 200-hour moving average at 148.606 (the moving higher). On the top side, getting above the high price from yesterday and today at 149.50, would open up the door toward the high for the week at 149.70, followed by the natural resistance at 150.00 level.If the 150.00 natural resistance target can be broken, I would expect further upside momentum.Buyers are more in control with the price above the 100-hour moving average and after holding the 200-hour moving average. If the sellers are to take more control they need to get below both those moving averages and stay below.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The XAU/USD saw ongoing losses accelerate through Friday trading, dipping to $1,850.00 and continuing to churn out new lows for the day to cap off a t

Oil is near the lows of the day, down 96-cents but still has some breathing room in what looks like it will be another weekly close above $90.Still, it feels like something of a loss for the bulls, or at least a loss of momentum. We touched $95 early on Thursday before giving back more than $4 and are on track to finish flat on the week.That, combined with the early-week selling paints a prominent doji star on the weekly chart. That’s a bit of a red flag about the potential for a reversal and also a sign that volatility will stay high.I would be more cautious on the downside here for five reasons:It’s a new month/quarter on Monday and that could shift allocations. Overall, funds are light on energy, so that could end up being good but a new quarter can change the trend and the trend in Q2 was undoubtedly bullish.All OPEC+ risks are to the downside. All it will take is a small hint that OPEC is thinking about pumping more and oil will fallSimilarly, the 2024 is an election year and the temptation will be for the Biden admin to tap the SPRGasoline cracks are plunging right now. I think that’s more about refineries and them running hotter and changes to winter gas ahead of maintenance but it could reflect demand. Diesel is still rock solid but something is changing in gasoline and any change from the status quo in oil is bearish.October, seasonally, is by far the worst month for front month oilI think that paints a compelling picture for caution. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US Dollar (USD) stages a recovery against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in the mid-North American session, reclaiming the 149.00 figure after dipping tow

Nio (NIO) stock rose 3.6% early Friday to $9.23 as Chinese stock made broad-based gains after a domestic regulatory body reduced regulations for cros

If you’re a trader who only believes in seasonals then today is the day to buy stocks. There’s a dip and September is finishing on a weak note. Of course it looks bad right now but that’s how it always looks when sentiment is bad.As a reminder, you only need to go back a year when the market initially bottomed on September 30. It later retested that in the second week of October, broke lower on an intraday basis and then posted a rip-your-face-off rally despite a higher CPI report. The ForexLive wrap from that day is worth reading.It wasn’t exactly a sizzler into year end from there but stocks rose as much as 10% before some tax-loss selling to wrap up the quarter +5%. That tax-loss dip was a great opportunity as it was a one-way rally in early 2023.All of it roughly followed the seasonal pattern, as has much of this year’s trading. I highlighted earlier this week how years with strong gains followed by weak Septembers have always had good finishes.Here is a nice view of the seasonal pattern from here via EquityClock.com.The seasonality in the Nasdaq is even stronger in Q4. “Volatility can remain seasonally elevated through the first week and a half of October, on average, but this is the timeframe that stocks tend to bottom following their third quarter reset,” EquityClock notes, so there’s no rush to buy today.It takes some gumption to buy stocks after weeks of selling but it’s certainly not worse than last year when the market was staring down the barrel of an upcoming 75 bps hike followed by a series of promised hikes in 2023. Of course, valuations are more challenging now but there’s always a wall of worry to climb in a bull market.What needs to happen is some kind of bid in bonds or softening of economic data. The latter could be almost impossible to get with a government shutdown on Monday now looking close-to-certain. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBP/JPY is trying to hang onto territory just north of the 182.00 handle, scrambling for a foothold near 182.25 after reaching a Friday peak of 18

We’ve seen this script before.Treasury yields came off the lows and slowly the gains in equities faded. The FX market might have been the tell earlier as money started to move into US dollars, something I alluded to. I just don’t know how you could have a lot of confidence in that momentum given quarter end flows.In any case, the dollar is continuing to extend higher and has erased a hefty loss against the yen and is now trading 16 pips higher.This certainly isn’t a pretty picture heading into Q4. When I zoom out on the monthly Nasdaq chart, I have a hard time envisioning a catalyst to get to all-time highs, at least until there’s visibility to the Fed cutting significantly. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Silver prices have tumbled from a late-week peak for Friday’s trading, skidding into $22.30 after falling over 5.5% over the course of the US trading

Permian rigs -6 to 308Gas rigs 502 vs 507Data today from the EIA showed US production up 90k bpd in July from June, which came as something as a surprised and helped to soften oil prices. Eventually though, falling rigs will bite. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count declined to 502 from previous 507

The EURUSD is looking to close the trading week below the 200-hour MA and a cluster of resistance near 1.0610, but above the 100-hour MA at 1.05614. Those levels will be the barometers for buyers and sellers in the new trading week. In the video, I break down the levels and explain why they are so important as you plan your next trade This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nike (NKE) stock has surged over 9% in Friday’s premarket, climbing above $98 per share, following late Thursday’s fiscal first-quarter earnings rele

NY Fed President Williams is a speaking and says:Monetary policy is having the desired effects on the economyFed is at or near peak for federal funds rate.Fed will need restrictive policy stance for some time to achieve goals.Sees inflation ebbing to 3.25% this year, heading to 2% in 2025. Future is uncertain, data will drive future policy choices.Will still take a while for full monetary policy tightening to affect economyUnemployment to rise just over 4% next year. GDP should moderate next year to about 1.25%.Inflation is still too high, price stability essential for economy.Job market strong, current unemployment rate matches long term trend.Job market moving into better balance.See sample signs at inflation pressures are waning This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Having already raised $500K in less than 48 hours, Memeinator has already stormed through to stage 3 of its presale, on its relentless mission to redefine the meme coin sector. The project’s grand vision was born from the frustration of seeing relentless false promises and overhyped coins, that were endless parodies of each other replete with nonsensical messaging. These have made investors forget much of the fun and magic that once existed in the meme coin space.With its groundbreaking AI-driven game, blossoming community, and out-of-this-world prize offerings like a trip to space with Virgin Galactic, there’s never been a meme coin like it.Drawing on a certain timeless ’90s action movie, Memeinator is here to right these wrongs. This revolutionary project is building a solid and dynamic community of meme coin fans from the ground up. A community who shares in its vision and are ready to bring trust back into meme coins. The Memeinator ‘resistance’ is already off to a flying start with over 20,000 people having already joined on Twitter to follow the launch and vibrant discussions ongoing in both the Telegram and Discord communities.To ensure the project’s credibility and security, Memeinator has been audited by Solid Proof. Solid Proof has been auditing new blockchain projects since 2020. Based in Germany – the auditor focuses on assessing project protocols, reliability, smart contracts and KYC assessments for crypto projects. This puts Memeinator alongside high-profile audits for projects including UNCX, Shopping.io and ZyberSwap. Tokenomics and roadmapThe MMTR Tokenomics have a total supply of 1 billion tokens, with a generous percentage allocated to community engagement for competition and marketing pools to support the presale, and a further 5% for exchange liquidity provision. The token will be deflationary, with the team enacting a burn mechanism as needed to maintain the price. The whitepaper shows the project split into four meticulously planned phases. This will see the project move from inception in Phase 1 (team formation, blockchain and smart contract development & marketing launch) all the way to the presale completion that outlines CEX listings and the Memeinator game launch.Within also lies an outline for a staking program and NFT launch, details of which will be announced during the course of the presale.The final objective, stated as “Gain no.1 market cap amongst meme coins” forms an integral part of the team’s ambition: tongue-in-cheek but daring and determined. This will form a core part of the project’s branding and ethos.Meme Warfare: A game-changerMemeinator will launch ‘Meme Warfare’ next year. Powered by AI, this shoot-em-up game blends the chaos of battle with the absurdity of the memesphere. It allows players to step into the Memeinator’s virtual chassis to take part in humor-infused clashes as it blasts rival meme coin characters into oblivion. The coins represented in the game will be in line with their real-world relevance. Meme Warfare’s backend “Memescanner” AI will be simultaneously scanning the Web and feeding data into the game. This adds an extra layer of engagement and realism. If a meme coin is performing poorly on the market, it’s the gamer’s job to obliterate it. Redefining the meme coin space by going to spaceMemeinator is offering the trip of a lifetime to one lucky prize winner, with a trip to space aboard Virgin Galactic. Hosted on Gleam, Memeinator is showing its competitors that it doesn’t mess around when rewarding its community.Beyond first prize, the project will release exclusive NFTs during its presale. While details remain top secret at this stage, the NFTs serve to further strengthen and grow the community whilst providing a tangible virtual identity to this groundbreaking meme coin.Having already raised $500K in less than 48 hours, the Memeinator presale is already on its third stage. However, with the presale ongoing and less than $100K before it hits stage 4, users can still get involved and win this gargantuan prize.About MemeinatorMemeinator (https://memeinator.com) is the antidote to the hundreds of throwaway meme coins that lack any legitimate utility. With its deflationary token, engaged community, expertly crafted NFT collection, and AI-powered video game, it offers real innovation instead of just hype. Its purpose is to eclipse its rival meme coins. And, on the way, deliver strong returns to its community via both trading its MMTR coin and staking. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

According to Reuters, 4 sources are saying that:OPEC+ ministerial panel unlikely to recommend output policy change at October 4 meetingThis is as expected. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The EIA is reporting that:U.S. overall crude production grew by 0.7% to 12.99 million barrels per day in July, the highest level since November 2019.Texas experienced a 1.3% increase in crude production, reaching 5.63 million barrels per day in July, setting a new record.New Mexico’s crude production rose by 0.6% to 1.78 million barrels per day in July, the highest since May.North Dakota’s crude production increased by 1.2% to 1.17 million barrels per day in July, marking the highest level since December 2020.The data is for July, but as Russia and OPEC throttle production, the US – despite lower Baker Hughes data – is growing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD made new lows for the week earlier today and in the process tested a swing area between 1.3401 and 1.34214. The low price reached 1.34154 bouncing higher. The last 4 or so hours have seen a sharp move back to the upside helped by declining oil prices.The move higher has taken the price of the USDCAD above its 100-bar moving average (blue line on the chart below) on the 4-hour chart at 1.35195, and toward the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.35413 (green line on the chart below). On Wednesday, the price highs for the day (and for the week as well) stalled against those converged moving average levels.Going forward, if the buyers are to take more control, they would need to get above the higher 200-bar moving average at 1.35413.Conversely, sellers could lean here against the 200-bar moving average, and push the price back below the 100-bar moving average at 1.35195. That would put sellers more in control again.So KEY resistance is currently being tested. That resistance will help determine a more bullish, or more bearish bias for this currency pair going into the end of the week and into the new trading week Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The month ended with some equity buying in Europe but it wasn’t a pretty picture for the week or September (aside from the UK). I do love when a month ends on a Friday though, so it’s a clean slate for October.On the day:Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +0.5%France CAC +0.4%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain’s IBEX +0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4%On the week:Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -1.0%France CAC -0.6%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.8%Spain’s IBEX -0.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.0%On the month:Stoxx 600 -1.5%German DAX -3.4%France CAC -2.3%UK’s FTSE 100 +2.3%Spain’s IBEX -0.6%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.7%On the quarter:Stoxx 600 -2.4%German DAX -4.6%France CAC 3.5%UK’s FTSE 100 +1.2%Spain’s IBEX -1.7%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.2%Year to date gains are in the 2% (UK) to 20% (Italy) range.When you zoom out to the monthly charts, the weakness lately hasn’t been as bad as the headlines might make it seem. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

April-July deficit of $1.24 bilion vs year-ago surplus of $6.33 billionCanadian polls have strongly turned against Justin Trudeau and there’s a decent chance he steps down in short order. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD moved above its 100-hour moving average yesterday after trending lower for the 1st half of the trading week. The move back above the 100-hour moving average give the buyers the go-ahead to push higher toward the 200-hour moving average. In trading today after testing that moving average on the first test in the London morning session, the price was able to break above it and tilt the bias higher (see the green line in the chart below). The significance of that break? Looking at the hourly chart below, the break above the 200-hour moving average was the 1st since September 1. The price should’ve gone higher but stalled against the 50% midpoint of the last move to the downside at 1.22673.The last few hours have seen a sharp move back to the downside. The current hourly bar moved down to test its 100-hour moving average of 1.21805. Support buyers leaned against the level. The current price is back above the 1.2200 level.What next as we head into the close and into the new trading week ahead?With support holding against the 100-hour moving average, and the break above the 200-hour moving average failing, the price is in a neutral area at least in the short term between those two moving averages. If the sellers are to take control, they need to move below the 100 hour moving average at 1.21805. Conversely, if the buyers are to take more control, they need to break and stay above the 200-hour moving average of 1.2248. Those two levels will dictate the next move for this currency pair not only today but going into next week. Until then, the short/medium-term bias is more neutral as traders await the next shove. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

UAW says no further strikes at StellantisIt’s really tough to handicap a strike but the notable headline here might be Stellantis, where the UAW said meaningful progress has been made. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

WSJ Fedwatcher Nick TImiraos is highlighting the improvements in inflation in the US and offered up this chart.Zooming out further, core goods inflation is up just 0.5% y/y while housing rose 7.4% but the latter is a major laggard and will fade rapidly in the coming months (and perhaps further if mortgage rates stay at 7.5%).The Fed should feel good about where core inflation is headed but will be understandably worried about energy and firming wage demands. The wise thing for them to do is to continue to push a hawkish message (with a hike likely in Nov/Dec) while waiting for some real slack to emerge in the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD sellers had their shot this week with a move outside of the “Red Box” that has confined the pair between 0.6356 and 0.65214 for 7 trading weeks now. The failure to break – and move lower this week – has given the buyers a go-ahead to push higher midweek. Yesterday the price returned toward the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 4 hour chart (blue and green lines on the chart below) and stalled. Today, buyers pushed higher extended toward the extremes of the “Red Box”.The upside today did stall ahead of the extreme between 0.6510 and 0.65214, and is rotating modestly to the downside. However, going forward if the price can remain above the 100 and 200 bar moving averages between 0.6422 and 0.64278, the tilt of the up-and-down trading range remains in favor of the buyers (see blue and green lines on the chart below). Those buyers just need to get outside of the Red Box above at 0.65214 to increase that bullish bias.If that ceiling area is broken today – or going forward into the new trading week – the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high comes in at 0.65463. That too would need to be broken to show that the buyers are serious about moving to the upside.So overall, this week’s trading saw an initial move to the downside and break lower below key for support. However, that break failed. The sellers had their shot and they missed, paving the way for a rebound higher (in the 2nd half of the week). There is more to do with a break outside 0.65214 and extension to and through the 38.2% retracement of 0.6546, but for now, those buyers are holding the better hand technically. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

There may be a bit of a rush for USD liquidity into month end. Otherwise the latest move in the dollar is tough to explain.Notably, stocks are off their best levels so many that’s a canary in the coalmine? In any case, the dollar is now roughly flat on the day against the yen, pound, loonie and Swiss franc while the euro holds onto some modest gains and the Aussie and kiwi outperform.In terms of economic data, the UMich sentiment was a tad stronger but the final version of that report is rarely a market mover. Earlier, the PCE report was a touch soft on inflation so, if anything, that should be hurting the dollar.Again, it’s quarter end and flows dominate fundamentals at this time of the month. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US Fed Policymakers will no doubt breathe a sigh of relief as Core PCE data cooled in August. Short-term US interest rate futures barely moved however, as market participants still see the rate hiking cycle as done.

Gold prices have staged a modest pullback after falling below their 200-day moving average

​​Outlook on Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 and S&P 500 as the oil price, US yields and greenback retreat from their lofty heights.

GBP prices strengthened against the USD on the back of UK GDP numbers as well as dovish Fed talk which left the US dollar trading lower this morning.

A slight breather in the Treasury yields rally allowed Wall Street to turn in a positive session overnight, while VIX retraced for the second straight day.

Crypto markets enjoyed a largely positive day following the lates ETH Futures ETF application by the VanEck group. Is the crypto rally still on the cards for Q4?

USD/JPY halts its advance, but clings to 11-month highs ahead of Friday’s key U.S. personal consumption expenditures data that may set the tone for the U.S. dollar in the near term.

EURO Bulls spur on recovery attempt ahead of key risk events tomorrow which could send EURUSD back toward the YTD low. Will the move prove sustainable?

Gold prices slip to multi-month lows as the US dollar grows in stature. Daily XAU/USD chart exhibiting bearish signals including death cross and triangle support breakout.

The prospect of lengthy production cuts trump any question marks over near-term demand to power prices higher.

GBP prices stay depressed as markets look towards US GDP and Fed speak for guidance.

The US dollar has broken key resistance levels against some of its peers as higher-for-longer rates view solidifies. What is the outlook for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/JPY?

Wall Street managed to stabilise overnight from its recent sell-off, despite another climb in Treasury yields and a pull-ahead in the US dollar.

Risk Assets continued their struggle today but did post late session recovery, as Gold prices felt the full weight of rising US Yields. Will the recovery late in the US session gain any traction?

USD/JPY approaching key 150.00 handle as Japanese Officials increase the frequency of comments on Intervention. Will 150.00 be the point where the BoJ step in?

USD/CAD try push higher but crude oil prices are limiting USD upside.

EUR/USD slumped to its lowest levels since mid-March after more aggressive monetary policy statements from the Fed’s Kashkari and dwindling German consumer confidence.

The Pound is headed for a terrible month against the Dollar as an uncertain out look for both interest rates and the UK economy work against it

Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 as the ‘rates higher for longer’ scenario continues to weigh on stocks.