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  • Week ahead – highlights include Italy Elections, US PCE, EZ CPI, China PMIs
    by Newsquawk Analysis on September 24, 2022 at 3:08 pm

    <ul><li>MON: Japanese Flash PMIs (Sep), German Ifo (Sep), US National Activity Index (Aug), German Prelim. CPI (Sep), Canadian Business Barometer (Sep).</li><li>TUE: NBH Policy Announcement; Chinese Industrial Profit (Aug), EZ M3 (Aug), US Building Permit Revisions (Aug), Durable Goods (Aug), Consumer Confidence (Sep), New Home Sales (Aug), Richmond Fed (Sep).</li><li>WED: BoJ Minutes (Jul); Australian Retail Sales (Aug), German GfK (Oct), Swiss Investor Sentiment (Sep), US Pending Home Index (Aug).</li><li>THU: Banxico Policy Announcement, Riksbank & CBRT Minutes (Sep); EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Sep), US GDP Final (Q2), IJC (w/e 19th Sep), Canadian GDP, UK GDP (Q2).</li><li>FRI: Japanese Unemployment (Aug), Chinese NBS & Composite PMIs (Sep), German Import Prices (Aug), Retail Sales (Aug), Swiss KoF (Sep), German Unemployment (Sep), EZ Flash CPI (Sep), Unemployment (Aug), US PCE Price Index (Aug).</li></ul><p class=”MsoNormal”>NOTE: Previews are listed in day-order</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Italy Elections (Sun): </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>If polls hold true, the Centre-right coalition will comfortably secure a majority and likely be led by Brother’s of Italy’s Meloni. Note, the coalition has seen a slight dip in recent polling though remains on track for an outright majority of seats, despite being at around 45-48% of the vote. The coalition holds strong stances on increasing the deficit, easing the tax burden and lessening legislation (among other areas) to the benefit of domestic business. With regards to the EU, Meloni has committed to sticking to the Recovery and Resilience plan and has echoed Former PM Draghi in prudent language around the budget deficit alongside denouncing the Russian activity and pledging to support Ukraine; steps that have, incrementally, reduced the market-perceived risk of a Meloni government (evidenced via BTP-Bund, at the time). Although, it remains unclear as to how much influence The League’s Salvini and Forza Italia’s Berlusconi will have within the coalition and as such on government policy, thus keeping the “right wing” leadership market risk very much in play.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>CBRT Minutes (Thu): </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>The Turkish Central Bank surprised markets with a 100bps cut to its One Week Repo Rate to 12.00%, against expectations for an unchanged outcome. The central bank cited the weakening effects of geopolitical risks on global economic activity, which continue to increase, and warned that since July leading indicators have been pointing to a slowdown in growth due to the weakening of foreign demand. The CBRT assessed that the updated level of the policy rate is adequate under the current outlook, and reiterated that it would continue to use all available instruments decisively within the framework of liberalisation strategy until strong indicators point to a permanent fall in inflation and the medium-term 5% target is achieved in pursuit of the primary objective of price stability.” The minutes will be eyed for further meat on the bones, but analysts seem united in their views that Turkish monetary policy is not based on conventional economic fundamentals. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Banxico Announcement (Thu): </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Hot domestic inflation and a hawkish US Federal Reserve mean that the Banxico will likely lift rates by 75bps, analysts say. The recent bi-weekly CPI report showed unadjusted CPI of +0.44% (exp. 0.42%) in H1 September, as analysts were expecting, while consumer prices were unchanged at 8.8% Y/Y (exp. 8.7%). Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that underlying inflation pressures still remain elevated in Mexico, though a relatively stable MXN and tighter financial conditions are cushioning. “Conditions likely will improve over the coming months, as we expect domestic demand to soften and tighter monetary policy to bite,” Pantheon writes, “improving supply chains, lower commodity prices and less-harsh base effects will also help to push inflation down to about 8.5% in October, then 8.2% in December and around 7.2% in March.” but that said, Pantheon says that risks are tilted to the upside, and Banxico will continue to hike in the near term to bring inflation expectations under control. “Following the FOMC’s meeting, we now expect Banxico to hike by 75bps to 9.5%, followed by a terminal 50bps hike in November,” PM writes, “but this outlook remains heavily conditional on the Fed.” </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>China PMI (Fri): </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>China Manufacturing PMI is expected to fall a touch from 49.4 to 49.2; the Non-manufacturing PMI is seen easing to 52.3. ING’s analysts say the PMI data is expected to follow the declining trajectory of the previous months. “The worrying amount of COVID cases in China led to the tightening of measures in multiple cities including in the tech hub of Shenzhen, as well as a weeks-long lockdown in Chengdu,” the bank writes, “this could contribute to falls in orders, employment and business confidence, leading to the Caixin Manufacturing PMI and NBS non-manufacturing PMI falling for the fourth straight month.” ING says “the impact of the economy might be cushioned for large-scale and state-owned firms surveyed in the NBS manufacturing PMI as orders and input costs for these companies are stable and business sentiment is less affected, contrary to that of private companies.”</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>RBI Preview (Fri): </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>India’s central bank is expected to hike its key rate next week, with to 26 out of 51 economists calling for the central bank to raise the Repurchase Rate again by 50bps to 5.90%, while 20 forecast a 35bps rate increase, and the remaining analysts anticipate hikes between 20-30bps. At its last meeting, the RBI hiked its Repurchase Rate by 50bps amid mixed expectations of between 25bps-50bps, and said that a further calibrated withdrawal was warranted to keep inflation expectations anchored. It also noted that CPI inflation had eased from its surge in April, but remained uncomfortably high. The central bank also recently noted that it will have to front-load its monetary policy to fight stubborn inflation and shield medium-term growth in the economy as front-loading of monetary policy actions can keep inflation expectations firmly anchored and reduce the medium-term growth sacrifice. The latest key data releases from India suggests the central bank will continue with the current pace of hikes as inflation has remained stubbornly elevated and above the 2-6% tolerance range with CPI in August firmer than expected at 7.0% (vs exp. 6.9%), while the most recent Industrial Production disappointed at 2.4% (exp. 4.3%) and GDP for the April-June quarter was also short of estimates but firmly accelerated to 13.5% (exp. 15.2%, prev. 4.1%). Another factor that could compel the central bank to stick to the current pace of rate hikes is the continued policy normalisation by most of the major global central banks including the Fed and given that the INR recently extended to fresh record lows against the USD, as the RBI would likely want to avert further pressuring the currency by slowing down on its hiking cycle.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Eurozone Flash CPI (Fri): </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Headline consumer prices are forecast to rise higher to 9.6% Y/Y from 9.1%, while the super-core metric is seen picking up to 4.6% Y/Y from August’s 4.3%. Anecdotal inflation commentary within the recently released flash PMI data was downbeat, with the general theme being supply-led price pressures being replaced by energy-induced inflation. “While easing raw material supply constraints helped alleviate some inflationary pressures, rising energy prices were widely blamed on a renewed acceleration of input cost inflation across both manufacturing and services. The overall increase in costs was the steepest since June”, S&P Global said, adding that “the challenge facing policymakers of taming inflation while avoiding a hard landing for the economy is therefore becoming increasingly difficult.” The ECB has said that the risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside, while EUR depreciation does not help the situation, with EURUSD breaking below 0.9800 this week. The ECB itself raised its inflation projections at the recent policy meeting, with its 2022 estimate upped to 8.1% (prev. 6.8%), 2023 raised to 5.5% (prev. 3.5%), and 2024 lifted to 2.3% (prev. 2.1%). In wake of that meeting, sourced reports had suggested that the central bank could discuss a 75bps rate rise at the October 27th meeting if the inflation outlook warrants one.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>US Personal Income, Spending, PCE (Fri): </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Analysts at Credit Suisse expect Core PCE to rise 0.5% M/M (prev. +0.1%), pushing the annual measure up to 4.8% Y/Y (prev. 4.6%). “Core PCE inflation likely reaccelerated in August,” the bank says, arguing that “the strength in core inflation has been broad, with goods prices rebounding alongside persistent strength in labor-intensive services and housing.” Ahead, CS expects that goods inflation will moderate, but overall core PCE will still remain above the Fed’s 2.0% target into next year. This week, the Fed raised its forecasts for inflation; the central bank now sees core PCE at 4.5% by the end of this year (it previously projected 4.3%), moderating to 3.1% next year – the Fed sees core <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/” target=”_blank” id=”ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa_22″ class=”terms__main-term”>inflation</a> at 2.1% at the end of its forecast horizon in 2025, but thinks that headline PCE prices will be at its 2% target by then. Meanwhile, personal income is expected to rise 0.3% M/M in August (prev. +0.2%), and personal consumption is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. +0.1%). CS thinks the report will paint a picture of flat real household spending; “goods demand continues to contract, with control group retail sales and unit auto sales negative for the month,” it writes, “this continues to be offset by positive growth in services.” In the near-term, CS argues that tightening financial conditions, slowing housing demand, and poor sentiment will continue to weigh on durable goods, but the bank sees overall consumer spending returning to positive growth in the months ahead.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>For more research like this check out <a href=”https://newsquawk.com/daily/article/?id=2641-newsquawk-week-ahead-preview-highlights-include-fomc-pboc-boe-boj&utm_source=forexlive&utm_medium=research&utm_campaign=partner-post&utm_content=weekly” class=”article-link”>Newsquawk</a>, or try their <a href=”https://newsquawk.com/?utm_source=forexlive&utm_medium=research&utm_campaign=partner-post&utm_content=weekly” target=”_blank” data-saferedirecturl=”https://www.google.com/url?q=https://newsquawk.com/?utm_source%3Dforexlive%26utm_medium%3Dresearch%26utm_campaign%3Dpartner-post%26utm_content%3Dweekly&source=gmail&ust=1663418600702000&usg=AOvVaw38IuI5hMqwzS8LK_B2nMIJ” class=”article-link”>live squawk box</a> for 7 days free.</p> This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at forexlive.com.

  • Another down day/week for the major indices. New 2022 closing low for the Dow.
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 8:24 pm

    <p>The major US stock indices are closing lower for the 4th consecutive day. For the week, the majors major indices are also down sharply.</p><p>Recall from this time last week, Adam warned that this week is the worst week on the calendar seasonally for equities, over the past 50 years.It lived up to that distinction this year as well. </p><p>For the trading day:</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average fell -186.29 points or -1.62% to 29590.42. The prior low close for 2022 came in at 29888.72</li><li>S&P index fell -64.78 points or -1.72% at 3693.22. The low close for the year came in on June 13 at 3674.85. The low price today did dipped below that level but bounced into the close</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -198.87 points or -1.80% at 10867.94. The June 13 low close for the year came in at 10798.35. The low price today reached 10732.72 below that level.</li><li>Russell 2000 fell -42.72 points or -2.48% at 1679.58. The June 13 low close was at 1665.69. The low price today intraday reached 1658.65 below that level</li></ul><p>For the trading week,</p><ul><li>Dow industrial average fell -4.0%. Last week it fell -4.13%</li><li>S&P index fell -4.65%. Last week it fell -4.77%</li><li>NASDAQ index fell -5.07%. Last week it fell -5.48% him</li><li>Russell 2000 fell -6.6%. Last week the index it fell -4.5%.</li></ul><p>Technically, the</p><ul><li>NASDAQ index closed below its 200 week moving average at 11094.95. Back at the June lows, the price moved below the 200 week moving average as well, but closed above the moving average the following week and stayed above that moving average.</li><li>Dow industrial average also closed below its 200 week moving average at 29752.11. The last time the price close below its 200 week moving average was back on it May 11: 2020</li><li>S&P index remains above its 200 week moving average at 3585.22.</li></ul><p>For the week, the technicals are not looking good for 2 of the 3 major indices. It is just one week and we have seen these false breaks before (see the weekly chart below) him. However, until the price can get back above and stay above, the sellers have control. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar soars to new heights as the pound implodes
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 8:05 pm

    <ul><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/sp-global-us-services-pmi-492-vs-450-expected-20220923/”>S&P Global US services PMI 49.2 vs 45.0 expected</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/canada-july-retail-sales-25-vs-20-expected-20220923/”>Canada July retail sales -2.5% vs -2.0% expected</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/snbs-jordan-further-rates-cannot-be-ruled-out-ready-to-be-active-in-fx-20220923/”>SNB’s Jordan: Further rates cannot be ruled out. Ready to be active in FX</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/powell-we-continue-to-deal-with-a-unique-economic-disruption-20220923/”>Powell: We continue to deal with a unique economic disruption</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-chencellor-kwarteng-i-think-its-a-very-good-day-for-the-uk-20220923/”>UK Chencellor Kwarteng: I think it’s a very good day for the UK</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/a-hurricane-is-likely-to-hit-florida-next-week-20220923/”>A hurricane is likely to hit Florida next week</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/baker-hughes-oil-rigs-up-3-in-the-current-week-20220923/”>Baker Hughes oil rigs up 3 in the current week</a></li><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/news/italy-heads-to-the-polls-on-sunday-20220923/”>Italy heads to the polls on Sunday</a></li></ul><p>Markets:</p><ul><li>WTI crude oil down $4.64 to 78.84</li><li>US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 3.68%</li><li>UK 10-year yields up 33 bps to 3.83%</li><li>Gold down $27 to $1643</li><li>S&P 500 down 1.7%</li><li>USD leads, GBP lags (badly)</li></ul><p>Today’s price action was probably just an extension of the FOMC trade and the growing belief that Powell is going to over-tighten the economy into a recession. But the trigger was in the bond market, specifically UK bonds. UK 5 year notes had their worst day in recorded history, down 50 basis points(!). That came after a round of spending and tax cuts in Kwateng’s budget.</p><p>Coupled with that the pound cratered. It took out 1.10 for the first time since 1985 and then promptly took out 1.09 on a cascade of selling into the London fix. You’d expect a bounce after that but the USD bid was relentless and it fell as low as 1.0840. The 1985 low is now just 300 pips away and there don’t appear to be many buyers.</p><p>Even though EUR/USD fell 150 pips to a new low the euro still managed to put a beating on GBP. The problem for eurozone politicians is that the UK budget demonstrated what will happen to them if they spend too much or energy subsidies or do to much to stimulate growth. That puts them in a horrible predicament. Meanwhile, another 1.4% decline in the euro adds to imported inflation.</p><p>At one point early in the day a strong bid for Treasuries came in. That briefly looked like it could turn the mood and 10-year yields finished lower at 3.68% after touching 3.83%. The front end was also volatile with 2s in a range of 4.11-4.27%. At some point, you’d think there would be enough of a bid for safety to weigh but the bond bulls aren’t exactly stampeding at what’s been a brutal time for risk assets.</p><p>USD/JPY remains a major preoccupation as the game of chicken with the MOF gets underway. The pair added 94 pips today to 143.28. Everyone is eyeing the 145.00 and broad dollar strength makes it more likely that we’ll get back there.</p><p>The commodity currencies suffered as well but — oddly — the declines in AUD and NZD were about double CAD. The loonie has been skidding hard so maybe it’s a catch-up trade but it’s still unusual to see on a day when oil was down 5.4%. Canadian retail sales were also weak today and I think the evidence is mouting for the BOC to pivot.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • Here is the FOMC speaking schedule for next week
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 7:34 pm

    <p>Monday</p><ul><li>10 am ET Collins </li><li>12 am ET Bostic</li><li>1230 ET Logan</li><li>4 pm ET Mester</li></ul><p>Tuesday</p><ul><li>6:15 am ET Evans</li><li>9:55 am ET Bullard</li><li>8:35 pm ET Daly</li></ul><p>Wednesday</p><ul><li>8:35 am ET Bostic</li><li>10:10 am ET Bullard</li><li>2 pm ET Evans</li></ul><p>Thursday</p><ul><li>1 pm ET Mester</li><li>4:45 ET Daly</li></ul><p>Friday</p><ul><li>9 am ET Brainard</li><li>1230 ET Barkin</li><li>4:15 pm ET Williams</li></ul><p>I’ll be shocked if we only hear from Bullard twice.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • The knives are coming out for the Federal Reserve now
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 7:23 pm

    <p>The consensus on the Fed — which is something I said yesterday — is that “these morons are going to over-hike us into a recession”.</p><p>I get the sense that the FOMC is so desperate for a ‘win’ on anything that they’re willing to wreck the economy just so they can live out their Volcker fantasies. </p><p>In any case, here’s a better Fed rant than anything I could write and given what’s happening in markets, this won’t be the last one.</p><blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-partner=”tweetdeck”><p dir=”ltr” lang=”en”>ICYMI: Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel fired up on <a href=”https://twitter.com/HalftimeReport?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@HalftimeReport</a> over the Fed. We’re going to break it all down on Overtime. Tune in at 4PM ET! <a href=”https://t.co/ONe0cqDwcy”>pic.twitter.com/ONe0cqDwcy</a></p>— CNBCOvertime (@CNBCOvertime) <a href=”https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1573387150338433025?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>September 23, 2022</a></blockquote> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • Is bitcoin gearing up for the next plunge?
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 7:06 pm

    <p>The price of Bitcoin has seen two quick $14K declines recently with one in May and one in June. The declines were quick. The market price consolidated after the moves. </p><p>Since June 19, the price has been consolidating between $17592 and $25400. More recently, the price moved up to test a downward sloping trend line. The move did move above the falling 100 day MA (blue line on the chart above) but could not sustain momentum (the trend line instead stalled the rally). Buyers had their shot above the 100 day MA. They failed thanks to the trend line. </p><p>The digital currency has moved back down toward the June low at $17592. The low this week got within $1000 of the low. </p><p>My question is “Are we in for another run to the downside?”</p><p>Given the consolidation, since June 19, the market may be ready. As mentioned as well, the buyers had their shot to take the price above the 100 day MA, but found willing sellers at the trend line. Bearish. </p><p>If the price is to go lower, all bets would be off if the price were to go above the 100 day MA at $21268. That is near the trend line too. With the price at $18664, the risk is somewhat high up to $21268.</p><p> Is there a closer risk level?</p><p>Drilling to the hourly chart below, the highs over the last few days moved above the 200 hour MA on September 21 but failed. Again buyers had their shot and missed. The subsequent highs on September 22 and today found sellers closer to that MA line. </p><p>As a result that MA would be a closer risk level at $19379. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish (stop). That is the risk. </p><p> A lower stop in the short term might be $19084 which is where the 100 hour MA is found. Today, the price moved below that MA and stayed below. That too is bearish and might be a closer risk defining level for traders looking for a quick opportunity.</p><p>Admittedly, those stopped can be triggered on a sneeze in bitcoin, but the idea is “it is time” The price action is talking to me. </p><p>Hey…. bitcoin is not the easiest to trade, but the technicals are technicals whether looking at Bitcoin, Microsoft, oil or GBPUSD. The chart looks bearish to me with defined risk against either the hourly or daily MA/trend line. The reward on a break to a new 2022 low could see the pair move toward the $11,000 area if the pair gets another head of steam behind it. </p><p>Time will tell but that is what the charts are saying to me. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • White House says prepared to impose additional economic costs on Russia after annexation
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 7:05 pm

    <p>Regions of Ukraine are holding referendums on joining Russia at the moment and Ukraine has said anyone who participates will be liable for a 5 year prison sentence. The votes have been widely characterized as a sham.</p><p>In any case, the votes will be used by Russia to annex the areas. In turn, that will change Russia’s military stance in those areas as one of defending the country. That could (should?) provoke more brutal measures.</p><p>None of that is new today but the White House says it is proposed to impose additional economic costs on Russia with allies if it moves forward.</p><p>I’m not sure what’s left to sanction that won’t hurt other countries but there’s a growing risk of secondary sanctions on oil and that would be a real messy in energy.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • No help from the Fed: S&P 500 extends declines to 100 points. Now 20 points from June lows
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 6:24 pm

    <p>The S&P 500 is now down 101 points to 3656. The low in June was 3636.</p><p>The September bounce ended with CPI and the FOMC finished the job. There was some buzz about Powell saving the day today but — as I repeatedly warned — it was a Fed Listens event and those aren’t spots from monetary policy pronouncements.</p><p>We’re already seen the Stoxx 600 and DAX break the 2022 lows. It’s been a brutal one-way move so a bounce will come at some point and now would be a good time.</p><p>There’s a good chance of something breaking the way we’re going, if you don’t consider what’s happened in the bond market as ‘something breaking’.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • Powell: We continue to deal with a unique economic disruption
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 6:02 pm

    <ul><li>We delivered good transparency about how the Fed works via Fed Listens events</li></ul><p>The remarks were brief and didn’t touch on monetary policy. The Fed’s Bowman is speaking now and Barinard is there as well.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • Powell set to speak. Brainard and Bowman shortly afterwards
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 5:57 pm

    <p>The Fed chair is delivering opening remarks at a Fed Listens event. There are people hoping for help for equities here but these kinds of events are a forum for Fed griping and almost never feature real talk on monetary policy.</p><p>The event more likely to be market moving is 5 mins after the top of the hour when Brainard and Bowman are on a panel.</p><p> We’ll monitor both.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • US dollar extends to fresh highs across the board
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 5:49 pm

    <p>What will stop the dollar? </p><p>A Fed pivot might but don’t hold your breath. Powell speaks in a few minutes but it’s a Fed Listens event and those are not the place for monetary policy pronouncements. We get Brainard and Bowman on a panel shortly after the top of the hour and that could offer something.</p><p>But in the big picture, US growth is the strongest and US rates will rise the highest. It also benefits from safe haven flows with JPY out of the game. Europe is in an energy crisis and several emerging markets aren’t far behind.</p><p>The euro just hit more stops on a break of 0.9700.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • A hurricane is likely to hit Florida next week
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 5:41 pm

    <p>Here’s the latest forecast track of the storm brewing in the southern caribbean. There’s still a wide range of outcomes but almost all of them now have the storm hitting some part of Florida after crossing Cuba. The only questions are the size and magnitude.</p><p>For energy markets, this is turning into less of an event because the vast majority of production is in the central gulf and the refineries are in Texas and Louisiana on the coast. </p><p>WTI is down $4.70 to $78.79 today. It’s not like the market needed another reason to sell oil with all the growth worries.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • Today killed growth capex
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 5:19 pm

    <p>This is the time of year when C-suites and corporate boards meet to discuss growth plans for the year ahead.</p><p>In light of the price action in financial markets, those dicussions are going to be much different than they would have been a month ago. Borrowing costs are skyrocketing and uncertainty about the economy is quickly turning into certainty there will be a recession.</p><p>Who can justify growth plans in this environment?</p><p>Certainly there are businesses out there that are doing fine and will grow but at the margin, the prospects for corporate spending are taking a big downgrade and we’re rapidly nearing (past?) the point where cost cuts and layoffs are coming.</p><p>That’s the problem with the blunt instrument of monetary policy. Additional capacity would easy supply chains and bottlenecks while adding competition. Instead, we’ll get a retrenchment in that kind of spending.</p><p>Lots of people were scratching their heads two weeks ago when the White House floated refilling the SPR at $80 per barrel. The reason they put that out there is because they need oil companies to drill. If not, there will be an undersupply of crude later. Right now it’s looking like it will hit in 2024. So Democrats may have saved the midterms but will get the payback in the 2024 general election.</p><p>Any oil company that was thinking about growth capex in 2023 has undoubtedly scaled that back now. For the Fed though, that could also boomerang. The lack of investment into all commodities will leave the market short of supplies and eventually to another price spike down the road.</p><p>For every degree central banks over-tighten now they’ll pay the price down the road.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 599 to 602
    on September 23, 2022 at 5:17 pm

    United States Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count rose from previous 599 to 602

  • UK finance minister Kwerteng: His economic strategy is not a gamble
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 5:06 pm

    <p>The UK finance minister Kwerteng on the BBC is saying:</p><ul><li>His economic strategy is not a gamble</li><li>Did not acknowledge that the UK was in recession and that one was not inevitable</li></ul><p>The <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp-usd/” target=”_blank” id=”40825c22-4786-411e-8820-6b43082274be_1″ class=”terms__main-term”>GBPUSD</a> and rates might say otherwise. </p><p>UK 10 year yields rose to a high of 3.842% which was the highest level since May 2010. </p><p>The currency traders pounded the pound to the downside. </p><p>Looking at the 5 minute chart below of the GBPUSD, the pair reached a new session low at 1.08609 and lowest level since 1985. The move to the downside has been in 3 trend leg moves with the last move being the longest and the sharpest decline. It took the price from 1.10957 to 1.08609 or -235 pips.</p><p>The 38.2% – 50% correction zone comes in between 1.0950 and 1.09783. Getting above at level would give dip buyers some comfort and a small victory at least intraday. The falling 100 hour moving average at 1.1023 would be another target to get to and through if the buyers are to start winning in the short-term .</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • Baker Hughes oil rigs up 3 in the current week
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 5:04 pm

    <p>The Baker Hughes </p><ul><li>oil rigs moved up 3 in the current week to 602 </li><li>gas rigs moved down 2 to 160</li><li>Total rigs are up 1 at 764 this week.</li></ul><p>Crude oil is $79 after reaching a low of $78.12</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • FTSE100 and DAX remain in a bearish sequence
    by Zorrays Junaid on September 23, 2022 at 5:00 pm

    In my last article, the FTSE100 was drawing up a triangle which was supporting the overall bullish trend in the biggest picture.

  • WTI sinks to new eight-month-lows, below $80 per barrel
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:58 pm

    The US crude oil benchmark, also known as WTI, drops below $80.00 per barrel on Friday, amid a buoyant US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index rising to l

  • NZDUSD trades to a new low going back to March 2020
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 4:50 pm

    <p>The <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/n/nzd-usd/” target=”_blank” id=”b0d87c1a-31b1-412f-bb1e-5b210dd404a5_2″ class=”terms__main-term”>NZDUSD</a> closed the week ago at 0.5990, just below the important 0.6000 level. The price has moved lower this week. The high a Monday reached 0.60007 – call it 0.6000.</p><p>The price just reached a new low of 0.57498. From the high, that’s a decline of 251 pips or 4.18%. That’s pretty big move in weeks time.</p><p>Looking at the daily chart above, the price moved below a swing area between 0.5909 and 0.5921and corrected into that area on Wednesday, only to find willing sellers. Bearish. The price trades to the lowest level since March 24, 2020. The pandemic low did reach much lower at 0.54668. So there is room to roam still.</p><p>A close risk level on the daily chart above might be the April 2020 low price at 0.58425 ahead of the broken trend line on the daily chart and the swing area near the 0.5920 area.</p><p>Drilling down to the hourly chart below, the price today fell back below an old trendline, and stayed below that level on a corrective move in the New York session (see green numbered circle 7). </p><p>The last few hours have seen a acceleration to the downside as stocks continue the run to the downside and risk off sentiment prevailed.</p><p>If the buyers are to take more control on the hourly chart, it would take a move back above the old trendline to hurt the bearish bias. That level comes near 0.5810 (and moving lower). Move back above that level, and we could see a run toward the daily targets at 0.58425 and 0.5920. Until then, the bears remain in control. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • GBP/USD: BoE to hike 75bps and pound to move lower and get close to record low – MUFG
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:40 pm

    The pound suffered on Friday the worst decline since at least March 2020, with GBP/USD losing more than 300 pips. Analysts at MUFG Bank, remain bearis

  • EUR/USD likely to continue moving lower, targeting 0.95 in 12 months – Danske Bank
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:33 pm

    According to analysts from Danske Bank, the US dollar will continue to move higher versus the euro over the next months. They forecast the EUR/USD pai

  • Canada: BoC to deliver another 50bps hike in October despite weak retail sales – CIBC
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:30 pm

    Data released on Friday showed a 2.5% decline in Canadian retail sales in July, a larger-than-expected slide. Analysts at CIBC, still see the Bank of

  • Dollar strength could continue into the early part of 2023 – Wells Fargo
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:26 pm

    According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the strength of the US dollar could persist more than previously estimated after the events of this week that in

  • Dow down over 20% from the high. Enters bear market territory.
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 4:24 pm

    <p>The Dow industrial average is trading down -624.73 points -2.08% at 29449.59. The low price reached 29439.48. The move to the downside has now taken the price 20% from its high reached on January 3. The Dow industrial average has entered into <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/b/bear-market/” target=”_blank” id=”d2d060bf-8544-41df-a650-cf7bff095dbf_1″ class=”terms__secondary-term”>bear market</a> territory.</p><p>Also, the price has moved below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the 2020 low at 29794.35, and moved below its 200 week moving average currently at 29751.44.</p><p>In comparison for 2022, the :</p><ul><li><a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/terms/n/nasdaq/” target=”_blank” id=”73ea5227-7971-4d75-a878-f20ede81c27e_1″ class=”terms__main-term”>Nasdaq</a> is down -33.27%</li><li>S&P is down -23.8%</li><li>Russell 2000 is down -32.27%</li></ul><p>Meanwhile the Vix index has moved up to 30.2% which is the the highest level since June 30.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • AUD/USD: Tightening global financial conditions and weakness in China to favor the dollar – Danske Bank
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:22 pm

    Analysts at Danske Bank forecast the AUD/USD pair at 0.67 in a month, at 0.67 in three months and at 0.66 in six months. They point out the aussie cou

  • EUR/GBP hits levels above 0.8900 for the first time since January 2020
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:10 pm

    After a brief pullback, EUR/GBP resumed the upside and hit levels above 0.8900 for the first time since 2020. So far, the cross peaked at 0.8910. It i

  • AUDUSD continues its run to the downside
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 4:10 pm

    <p>As stocks continue to run lower, with the Nasdaq down -220 points or near 2% and the S&P donw -76 points or -2.04%, the AUDUSD is continueing to take it on the chin. The pair is down -1.52% on the day which is only eclipsed by the GBPs 3% tumble vs the USD. </p><p>Looking at the weekly chart, the pair moved below a swing area this week between 0.6656 to 0.66809. The high price yesterday and today stalled into that range, but found willing sellers (see red numbered circles on the daily chart). </p><p>Drilling to the 5 minute chart, the pair has 3 legs lower today. Each has seen a modest correction. The first two stalled the rally against the 100 bar MA and the 38.2-50% of the “leg lower”. The current leg has stayed well below the 38.2%. Sellers are in firm control/the trend is intact below that correction zone currently between 0.6556 and 0.65629 (a new low, adjusts those levels). </p><p>Stocks trade to new session lows. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • SNB’s Jordan: Further interest rate rises cannot be ruled out
    on September 23, 2022 at 4:07 pm

    Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan said on Friday that further rate rises cannot be ruled out, as reported by Reuters. Key quotes “Swiss

  • SNB’s Jordan: Further rates cannot be ruled out. Ready to be active in FX
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 4:02 pm

    <ul><li>Price increases are hitting parts of the economy not previously impacted</li><li>Inflation has risen much more than expected and is ‘considerably’ above target</li><li>Further hikes cannot be ruled out</li><li>Central bank is ready to be active in FX market</li><li>Ensuring price stability demands the full attention of the central bank</li></ul><p>The SNB hiked 75 bps yesterday but many were expecting 100 bps.</p><p>There’s no indication here on how aggressive they will be here but I don’t think markets can turn until central bankers offer some kind of indication that they’re at least thinking about a pause.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • ECB’s Nagel: Rates must rise, unconventional measures should be unwound
    on September 23, 2022 at 3:45 pm

    The European Central Bank (ECB) must continue to hike rates and halt bond purchases once the job is done, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Counci

  • EUR/USD plummets to two-decade lows, at around 0.9700 on risk aversion
    on September 23, 2022 at 3:43 pm

    The EUR/USD nosedives below the 0.9800 figure, extending its losses towards the 0.9700 figure, below its opening price by 1.32%, triggered by traders’

  • European equity close: Through the 2022 lows in the DAX
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 3:40 pm

    <p>Yesterday the Stoxx 600 edged through the June lows, today it confirmed the break. Worse yet, the national indexes are breaking those levels as well.</p><p>Closing changes:</p><ul><li>Stoxx 600 -2.4%</li><li>UK FTSE 100 -2.1%</li><li>French CAC -2.4%</li><li>Italy MIB (reminder: election Sunday) -3.2%</li><li>Spain IBEX -2.4%</li></ul><p>The DAX is at the lowest since November 2020. This is an ugly break.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • USDJPY bangs against the 100/200 hour MA ceiling
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 3:30 pm

    <p>The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged yesterday which diverges from other central banks. But at the same time they intervened in the forex market vs the USD which sent the USDJPY pair sharply lower. </p><p>The price low yesterday moved close to the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August 1 low. That level comes in near the 140 level. The low yesterday reached 140.338.</p><p>The high price before the failed break higher yesterday that prompted the Bank of Japan intervention, was at 145.00. </p><p>As a result<a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/usdjpy-move-lower-stalls-ahead-of-the-382-retracement-of-the-last-trend-move-higher-20220922/” target=”_blank”> I put a box around the 140.00 to 145.00 and said</a>:</p><p class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”>”What I don’t expect is for an extended run in either direction now that the range has been established for the USDJPY. So expect traders to put on their range trading hats for the time being at least and to respect the red box in the chart below- with the interim levels helping to define the bias in between the extremes.”</p><p class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”>The “interim levels” included the 100/.200 hour MAs (see blue and green lines in the chart above converged near 143.37).</p><p class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”>Those moving averages are indeed stalling the rally today (the high reached 143.32 just below the MA at 143.37) . Despite the run higher in the USD today vs nearly all the other currencies (the USDCHF is another exception), the USDJPY has seen continued sellers against the MA levels. </p><p class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”>Sellers are leaning. Buyers got burned yesterday and the memory is fresh. So upside momentum is limited even with the dollar buying and the fundamental tilt in favor of the USDJPY. Technicals are in control. </p><p class=”text-align-start vertical-align-baseline”>What happens if the price moves above? The interim bias would tilt more to the upside, with new risk being the 100/200 hour MA. The 143.80 would be a target, followed by the underside of the broken trend line from yesterday near 144.06. However, I would expect that buyers would still tread lightly and with a wary eye – at least in the near term. So be aware and be prepared of the risks. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • UK Chencellor Kwarteng: I think it’s a very good day for the UK
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 3:17 pm

    <p>To recap: </p><ul><li>Pound sterling down 350 pips to 1.0915 — the worst since 1985</li><li>UK 10-year gilt yields up 31 bps to 3.80% and having their worst week in ages</li><li>FTSE 100 down 2%</li></ul><p>Kwarteng is going to get eaten alive with tone deaf comments like these. Cutting taxes for the wealthy doesn’t tend to win you nay friends when all the tax savings get crushed by falling investments and a currency in freefall.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • AUD/USD unable to find support, hits fresh lows under 0.6540 amid risk aversion
    on September 23, 2022 at 3:02 pm

    The AUD/USD dropped further during the American session amid risk aversion and a stronger greenback. The pair is trading at 0.6540, the lowest level i

  • IC Markets unveils new campaign to help traders to reach new heights
    by ForexLive on September 23, 2022 at 3:01 pm

    <p class=”MsoNormal”>Sydney, Australia: IC Markets, one of the world’s largest Forex CFD brokers has unveiled its new global marketing campaign in front of an audience of thousands of rugby fans at the Rugby World Cup Sevens tournament held at the DHL Stadium Cape Town, South Africa last week.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>The advertisement will air in 10 countries over the next few months and was created by South African creative agency and filmmaker Silver Bullet Films. The advert plays on the renewed interest in the 1986 movie Top Gun, following the release of the sequel Top Gun: Maverick, and encourages traders to ‘trade up’ and experience the superior benefits of IC Markets.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Commenting on the campaign IC Markets CEO Andrew Budzinski said, “Top Gun is an iconic film and is fundamentally about using skill and the right tools to harness potential and to achieve goals. We know our traders come to IC Markets because they are drawn to the features and benefits we offer that will help take their trading to the next level.”</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Filmed outside Johannesburg by award winning Executive Creative Director Wayne de Lange, the new advertising campaign is IC Markets first major TV campaign since 2021</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>IC Markets operates in 200 countries around the world. Its +200,000 active traders take advantage of IC Markets’ competitive pricing, low spreads and ultra-fast institutional grade trading, totaling USD$1.11 trillion in volume traded (March 2022).</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>IC Markets chose the South African capital to film the advert, in recognition of its success in this market since launching in 2020. The decision to support the South African film industry also follows IC Market’s recent sponsorship of the Rugby World Cup Sevens held in Cape Town.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>To view the new adverts: For ASIC-related territories of Australia: </p><p class=”MsoNormal”> For FSA-regulated territories of Singapore, Vietnam, UAE, Hong Kong and Thailand: </p><p class=”MsoNormal”> For CYSEC-regulated territories of Portugal, Spain and Germany:</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>About IC Markets </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Built by traders for traders, IC Markets is the world’s largest Forex CFD broker dedicated to offering exemptional trading conditions and world class 24/7 service to clients in over 200 countries around the world. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Since its launch in 2007, IC Markets has bridged the gap between retail and institutional clients, by offering a trading solution previously only available to investment banks and high net worth individuals.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>As a result, IC Markets is the destination of choice for active traders worldwide who are seeking a trading environment that supports them to become a more confident and capable traders, delivering intuitive trading platforms with value-added tools and support for all trading strategies and styles. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>IC Markets is dedicated to innovation, constant improvement, and utilising cutting edge technology for the benefit for our clients. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>For more information click <a href=”https://www.icmarkets.com” target=”_blank”>here</a>.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Disclaimer: </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>IC Markets is licensed and regulated in multiple jurisdictions. Please find all relevant risk warnings and websites below.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>IC Markets (EU) Ltd is a limited company registered in Cyprus under company number HE 356877 and is authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with License No. 362/18. Access the website: icmarkets.eu</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.27% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. There is a possibility to lose all your initial capital. Access the website: icmarkets.eu</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Raw Trading Ltd registered in Seychelles with registration number: 8419879-2, is regulated by the Financial Services Authority of Seychelles with License number: SD018. Access the website: icmarkets.com</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Risk Warning: Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.</p><p class=”MsoNormal”>International Capital Markets Pty Ltd with registration number 123 289 109, is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission with License No. 335692. Access the website: icmarkets.com/au. </p><p class=”MsoNormal”>Risk Warning: Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors. You don’t own or have rights in the underlying assets. You should consider whether you’re part of our target market by reviewing our Target Market Determination, and read our PDS and other legal documents to ensure you fully understand the risks before you make any trading decisions. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary.</p> This article was written by ForexLive at forexlive.com.

  • AUD/USD needs to hold 0.6540/0.6465 to prevent further losses – SocGen
    on September 23, 2022 at 3:00 pm

    AUD/USD continues losing ground. Holding above support at 0.6540/0.6465 is critical to avoid a deeper fall, analysts at Société Générale report. Defen

  • USD/JPY set to settle in a wide 140-145 range – OCBC
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:57 pm

    USD/JPY sticks to modest gains on Friday around the 143 level. A wide range of 140-145 may persist, according to economists at OCBC. Risks skewed to t

  • Cable is puking into the London fix
    by Adam Button on September 23, 2022 at 2:56 pm

    <p>The pound extended today’s decline to +350 pips and touched 1.0899.</p><p>There’s now open talk of intervention. This is from a former BOE MPC member:</p><p>The weekend press isn’t going to be kind to Truss and Kwarteng. They’re taking a high risk of being forever cast as in the pockets of the rich as a cost-of-living crisis hits. That’s the kind of thing that could quickly undo support for the Conservatives and risks blowback from within the party.</p><p>Gilt yields are up 29 bps.</p> This article was written by Adam Button at forexlive.com.

  • EUR/USD set to extend its decline towards the 0.95 mark – SocGen
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:51 pm

    EUR/USD has neared the 0.9700 level. The descending channel at 0.95 could be the next objective, economists at Société Générale report. EUR/USD has to

  • GBPUSD builds another trend leg lower on the intraday chart
    by Greg Michalowski on September 23, 2022 at 2:51 pm

    <p>In the morning video, I discussed the trend move to the downside and earmarked the 38.2-50% of the “last trend leg lower” as the minimum target to get and stay above to tilt the intraday bias a little more to the upside. That was the minimum. </p><p>The corrective move higher at the start of the NY session moved up to test the 38.2% at 1.10916 and backed off. The high reaches 1.10957. The last 80 or so minutes has seen another trend leg that saw the price move from 1.1095 to 1.0959. The 38.2-50% of that trend leg comes in at 1.1011 to 1.1027. Like the other trend leg, it will now take a move above that area to give the buyers some hope that the trend is over and that there could be more corrective action to the upside. That is the minimum. However, if it can be breached it would be a slowing of the trend. </p><p>See my analysis in the morning video starting at 5:34 in the morning video <a href=”https://www.forexlive.com/technical-analysis/the-markets-are-in-motion-stocks-are-lower-yields-are-higher-the-usd-is-higher-20220923/” target=”_blank”>HERE</a></p><p>What about longer term?</p><p>Folks, the GBPUSD is trading at the lowest level since 1985. I was young in 1985, just getting started in my career. </p><p>Yes… the pair is oversold, but many traders have been saying that for a while. This may be a blow off. We are actually getting closer to parity, but in a trending market, it is more the job of the anti trend traders (i.e. the buyers) to prove they can take back control. </p><p>Looking at the daily chart below, are the buyers showing they are taking control for long on the chart above? I don’t see it. </p><p> Looking at the hourly chart, I did speak in the morning video of the pair’s price moving back above the broken trend line, but warned that the dip buyers had to stay above that level and get above the retracement levels on the 5-minute chart to give the signal the low might be in place. </p><p>It did not do either of those things. </p><p>Looking back in time, the price corrective highs in the GBPUSD tested the 100 hour MA last week and this week and found sellers. The price has not been above that MA (blue line in the chart below) since September 13. The 100 hour MA is up at 1.1317.</p><p>The price is oversold, but the buyers still have to prove the bottom is in. That will start on the 5-minute chart and then it would have to stay above the aforementioned retracement level. Absent that, and the sellers are in firm control.</p><p> PS. As I type, the pair takes another move to below 1.0900 to 1.0897. Since the last corrective high at 1.1095 near the 38.2%, the price has trended close to 200 pips to 1.0897. Wow! The range for the day is now 377 pips. Sellers are still in control.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at forexlive.com.

  • USD/JPY test daily highs near 143.20 as dollar’s rally continues
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:47 pm

    The USD/JPY is rising on Friday amid tensions across financial markets. The pair found support above 142.50 and it is testing daily highs near the 143

  • Breaking: GBP/USD sinks below the 1.1000 figure, registering fresh 37-year lows
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:41 pm

    GBP/USD tanks more than 2%, weighed by worse-than-expected UK economic data. The US Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy is a headwind for th

  • Rumble (RUM) stock gives into down market on Friday
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:33 pm

    Conservative social media site Rumble (RUM) spiked an unexpected 39.6% on Monday upon completing its merger with CF Acquisition Corporation VI, a spec

  • Global Market Unwind: USD Jumps as Euro, Sterling Plummet, Stocks Stare into the Abyss
    by James Stanley on September 23, 2022 at 2:25 pm

    It was a brutal week for global markets but FX has shown more panic in Euro and Sterling – even as US equities hold above June lows.

  • USD/CAD to enjoy further gains towards 1.3650 – Scotiabank
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:19 pm

    The loonie holds up relatively well against the stronger US dollar. However, economists at Scotiabank believe that the USD/CAD is set to test the 1.36

  • US Dollar Index set to race higher towards the 2001 peak at 121 – Scotiabank
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:10 pm

    The USD is powering on, reaching a new 20-year high in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Now, there is no technical until the 121 level, economists at Scotia

  • GBP/USD: The market may be underpricing the chances of parity – ING
    on September 23, 2022 at 2:03 pm

    GBP/USD has dived below the 1.10 level. Economists at ING believe that further losses toward parity could be on the cards. Investors will continue to

  • Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD falls to more than 2-year low as USD continues to strengthen
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:55 pm

    Gold drops to its lowest level since April 2020, around the $1,641 area on Friday and confirms a fresh breakdown below a one-week-old trading range. T

  • US: S&P Manufacturing PMI improves to 51.8 in September, Composite PMI rises to 49.3
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:50 pm

    The data published by S&P Global showed on Friday that the business activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded at a stronger pace in early Septe

  • Cassava Sciences Stock Forecast: SAVA explodes over 30% higher, bulls target $62
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:48 pm

    Cassava Sciences (SAVA) stock’s 35.7% explosion on Thursday is unlikely to be repeated anytime soon, but the premarket activity on Friday demonstrates

  • USD/JPY to turn higher again as BoJ maintains its dovish policy stance – Nordea
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:46 pm

    The Japanese yen moved above 145 against the US dollar. This forced the Japanese government to step in to intervene. USD/JPY turned back lower but eco

  • United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.3, above expectations (44.7) in September
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:46 pm

    United States S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 49.3, above expectations (44.7) in September

  • United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.8 above expectations (51.1) in September
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:46 pm

    United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 51.8 above expectations (51.1) in September

  • United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 49.2, above forecasts (45) in September
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:46 pm

    United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 49.2, above forecasts (45) in September

  • USD/CAD jumps to two-year highs above 1.3550 after disappointing Canada data
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:42 pm

    The USD/CAD pair retreated toward 1.3500 during the European trading hours but managed to gather bullish momentum in the second half of the day. As of

  • EUR/USD could fall as low as 0.90 in the months ahead – Nordea
    on September 23, 2022 at 1:35 pm

    Economists at Nordea expect a stronger US dollar in the months to come. In their view, the EUR/USD pair could plunge towards the 0.90 level on the ba

  • How to Manage the Emotions of Trading
    by Ben Lobel on September 23, 2022 at 12:30 pm

    Controlling emotions while trading can prove to be the difference between success and failure.

  • GBP/USD Slide Continues, ’Mini Budget’ Gets a Distinctly Lukewarm Welcome
    by David Cottle on September 23, 2022 at 10:47 am

    The British Pound continues to languish at levels not seen since the mid-1980s as inflation and growth worries continue to glower.

  • Crude Oil Update: Central Bank Hikes Weigh on Brent Ahead of Baker Hughes
    by Warren Venketas on September 23, 2022 at 9:30 am

    Brent crude oil continues to fall as fundamental headwinds gain traction.

  • Gold Price Outlook – Struggling to Make Any Headway, Further Downside Beckons
    by Nick Cawley on September 23, 2022 at 7:52 am

    US Treasury yields have risen further over the last week as markets price in higher interest rates for longer in the US. And that’s not good news for gold.

  • Australian Dollar Floored by Booming US Dollar as Rate Hikes Ricochet Through Markets
    by Daniel McCarthy on September 23, 2022 at 5:00 am

    The Australian Dollar has been hammered in the maelstrom running through markets this week as several central banks make their moves on interest rates. Will AUD/USD hit new lows?

  • Japanese Yen Intervention Brings Most Volatile Day Since 2016, Where to for USD/JPY?
    by Daniel Dubrovsky on September 23, 2022 at 3:30 am

    The Japanese Yen gained against the US Dollar as USD/JPY saw its most volatile day in over 6 years due to government intervention. What are key levels of support to watch ahead?

  • Would a Louder Recession Signal Push the Dow Over the Ledge, Reverse the Dollar?
    by John Kicklighter on September 23, 2022 at 2:00 am

    We have come through a flood of monetary policy from the Fed, BOE, BOJ and others. While the general trend is towards tightening, there is just as much disparity contributing to instability. The fallout I am most concerned over is an indeterminant recession. Our economic status is the primary fundamental focus Friday.

  • US Dollar Rally Pauses as Japanese Yen Finds Respite: Asia-Pacific Outlook
    by Thomas Westwater on September 22, 2022 at 11:00 pm

    Asia-Pacific markets face a risk-off day despite a US Dollar pullback driven mainly by Japanese Yen strength following an intervention in FX markets.

  • USD/CAD Rally Pushes RSI Into Overbought Zone for First Time in 2022
    by David Song on September 22, 2022 at 9:30 pm

    USD/CAD may attempt to test the July 2020 high (1.3646) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs into overbought territory for the first time this year.

  • S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Fall Amid Mounting Growth Concerns
    by Cecilia Sanchez Corona on September 22, 2022 at 8:30 pm

    U.S. equity indices continued to fall after the FOMC hiked interest rates yesterday and reaffirmed their commitment to bring inflation under control despite economic growth concerns

  • Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Muted Post Hawkish Fed Verdict but Still a Falling Knife
    by Diego Colman on September 22, 2022 at 5:30 pm

    The EUR/USD is trading with a neutral bias on Thursday, but retains a bearish outlook, especially after the Fed endorses an ultra-hawkish monetary policy tightening roadmap.

  • Japanese Yen Roars to Life Following Intervention – USDJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY Setups
    by Brendan Fagan on September 22, 2022 at 4:00 pm

    The Japanese Yen is surging as the Ministry of Finance intervenes to support the currency.

  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY
    by James Stanley on September 22, 2022 at 2:10 pm

    The US Dollar has had a big week so far and it isn’t over yet as price action is still absorbing the plethora of data that’s come into the picture.

  • GBP Breaking News: BoE Defies Market Estimates with 50bps Rate Hike
    by Warren Venketas on September 22, 2022 at 11:32 am

    The Bank of England unpredictably raised rates by 50bps to 2.25% after an aggressive Fed yesterday.

  • Gold Prices Remain Pressured By Fed’s More Hawkish Tone
    by David Cottle on September 22, 2022 at 9:45 am

    Gold remains close to 29-month lows as the prospect of more interest rate rises leaves non-yielding assets vulnerable.

  • USD/JPY Whipsaws Then Slumps on Official FX Intervention Reports
    by Nick Cawley on September 22, 2022 at 8:48 am

    The Japanese Yen is whipping around in early trade against the US dollar as talk permeates the market of official currency intervention.

  • Swiss National Bank Hikes by 75 Basis Points, EUR/CHF Pops Higher
    by Nick Cawley on September 22, 2022 at 7:48 am

    The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised interest rates by more than expected today and reiterated that rates could be raised further to ensure price stability.

  • Japanese Yen Spikes Lower as the BOJ Holds Back FX Intervention Threat. Where to Next for USD/JPY?
    by Ilya Spivak on September 22, 2022 at 3:30 am

    The Japanese Yen spiked lower as the Bank of Japan stuck close to a familiar script with its monetary policy announcement, cooling worries about FX intervention.