Explore the latest stories, news and media from Areios and beyond.


  • Beijing official says will apply targeted policies to property
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 2:52 am

    Remarks from Beijing’s Vice Mayor:Will apply targeted property policiesBeijing City will optimise property regulation policies—Supportive policies will be welcome, even at the city-level. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Australian Dollar remains subdued amid muted ASX 200, RBA decision eyed
    on March 19, 2024 at 2:47 am

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) hovers around the key level of 0.6550 amid subdued trading activity as market participants exercise caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision on Tuesday.

  • RBA Interest Rate Decision Preview: Australian central bank could remain hawkish despite cooling inflation
    on March 19, 2024 at 2:45 am

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at a 12-year high of 4.35% following the conclusion of its March monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.

  • USD/CAD consolidates around 1.3540, focus on Canada’s CPI data
    on March 19, 2024 at 2:40 am

    USD/CAD continues its upward trend for the fourth consecutive session, trading near the significant level of 1.3540.

  • Evergrande Real Estate Group will receive a warning and a fine of 4.18 billion yuan
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 2:39 am

    Shanghai Daily with the news on the very troubled real east group:Chinese regulators plan to ban Xu Jiayin, chairman of Evergrande Group, from entering the securities market for life. Xu was accused of “making decisions on and organizing financial fraud,” and will be fined 47 million yuan (US$6.63 million).Evergrande Real Estate Group will also receive a warning and a fine of 4.18 billion yuan for the issuance of false information in its 2019 and 2020 annual reports, for suspected fraud in its issuance of corporate bonds, and for its failure to disclose required information in a timely manner. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • “Severe economic slowdown” comments from NZ Treasury cited as reason for NZD selling
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 2:15 am

    From a New Zealand Treasury fortnightly report issued March 15 (bolding mine):A range of indicators released over the fortnight confirm New Zealand is in the midst of a severe economic slowdown and implies there was another quarter of roughly flat GDP in December and ongoing declines on a per capita basis. PM Luxon spoke to this last week:New Zealand’s Prime Minister Luxon says is seeing a deterioration in economic conditionsAnyway, that’s the reason being cited for the kiwi $ sell off. AUD and CAD were hit too so I’d take it with a grain of salt. And its all coming back as I update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • China’s Longi says will lay off around 5% of staff, not around 30% as some media said
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 2:07 am

    China’s Longi Green Technology Energy is the world’s largest solar manufacturerOvernight there were media reports the firm would cut nearly one-third of its staff as a cost-saving measure.The firm has issued a statement confirming layoffs but putting the number much lower, at around 5% of staff.This is better news for staff at the firm (well, for most of them) and for China-trade investors. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Japanese Yen slides to near two-week low against USD ahead of BoJ policy decision
    on March 19, 2024 at 1:48 am

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) drifts lower for the sixth straight day on Tuesday and weakens to a nearly two-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session.

  • ‘Handshake’ agreement reached for US government funding deal to avert a shut down
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 1:43 am

    Nothing official has been published but reports from the US of a ‘handshake’ deal that’ll avert a partial shit down. This is quite the achievement. The partial funding it covers runs dry on Friday. Agreement is usually reached with only hours to spare. Good job guys and gals in Congress! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • USD/JPY moving around, swings helped by thinning liquidity ahead of Bank of Japan decision
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 1:35 am

    USD/JPY is swinging about a little as liquidity thins and spreads widen ahead of the Bank of Japan decision. ICYMi: The news flow of a March pivot has been relentless, the Bank of Japan has not appeared to push back against these reports, and yet there is still a niggling doubt that the Bank will wait until April.Pivot for:BOJ to end yield curve control and ETF purchases — NikkeiBOJ to end NIRP and YCC, “a done deal” – here’s what might be a dovish surprisePivot against:It’s a close call, but not everyone expects the Bank of Japan to tighten policy todayBank of Japan won’t tighten policy – here’s why they’ll wait until AprilThe statement from the BoJ is expected some time in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window. The Bank does not have a firmly scheduled time for its announcement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • BoJ Preview: Japan looks set to end negative interest rate era, opting for first hike since 2007
    on March 19, 2024 at 1:30 am

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday, pretty much at the same time that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will do the same.

  • China’s Foreign Minister: Ready to work with New Zealand on upgraded version of the free trade agreement
    on March 19, 2024 at 1:21 am

    Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during his visit to New Zealand on Tuesday, said that “China is ready to work with New Zealand to implement an upgraded version of the China-New Zealand free trade agreement.” Additional quotes Two sides should launch negotiations on negative list of service trade as soon as possible, so as to push bilateral cooperation to a new level.

  • PBoC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0985 vs. 7.0943 previous
    on March 19, 2024 at 1:17 am

    On Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0985 as compared to the previous day’s fix of 7.0943 and 7.2056 Reuters estimates.

  • PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0985 (vs. estimate at 7.2056)
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 1:15 am

    The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.Previous close was 7.1986PBOC injects 5bn via 7-day RR, sets rate at an unchanged 1.8%10bn yuan of RRs mature todaythus net 5bn yuan drain on the day in OMOs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • China’s Foreign Min says ready to work with New Zealand on upgraded Free Trade Agreement
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 1:07 am

    China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi was in New Zealand meeting with various government ministers: China ready to work with New Zealand to implement upgraded version of the China-New Zealand free trade agreement Two sides should launch negotiations on negative list of service trade as soon as possible, so as to push bilateral cooperation to a new level China-New Zealand relations maintain a leading position among China’s relations with developed countries-AUD and NZD have dribbled a little lower in the session so far. USD/JPY is up a touch to around 149.25. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • A People’s Bank of China monetary policy maker will be speaking later today
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 12:47 am

    Coming up at 0600 GMT, which is 0200 US Eastern time, Liu Shijin, will be giving the keynote speech on the economy at a forum held by China Europe International Business School in Beijing.Liu Shijin is a member of the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) monetary policy committee.He is also deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, vice chairman of the China Development Research Foundation, China’s chief advisor to the China Environment and Development Council, former deputy director of the State Council Development Research CenterWay back in September 2023 he said China has limited room for further monetary policy easingGiven what we’ve seen from the PBoC on easing (ie. (very little) he sure was right about that! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2056 – Reuters estimate
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 19, 2024 at 12:22 am

    People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day’s trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan’s value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency’s value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • EUR/USD remains under pressure above the mid-1.0800s, Fed rate decision eyed
    on March 19, 2024 at 12:15 am

    The EUR/USD pair edges lower to multi-day lows around 1.0870 on the firmer US Dollar (USD) during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

  • Japan’s Suzuki: Will not comment on any BoJ policy steps to be taken
    on March 19, 2024 at 12:08 am

    Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that it depends on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to decide the details of monetary policy.

  • Japan finance minister Suzuki says won’t comment on any BOJ policy steps to be taken
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 11:48 pm

    Japan finance minister Suzuki:won’t comment on any BOJ policy steps to be takenits up to the Bank of Japan to decide specifics of monetary policythis year’s wage negotiations yielding record-high wage growth so farwe are clearly seeing good signs in the economy such as robust corporate spending appetitethe government will deploy various policies so that positive momentum in wages continuesSuzuki making comments supportive of a Bank of Japan tightening. The meeting announcement is due sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window. The news flow of a March pivot has been relentless, the Bank of Japan has not appeared to push back against these reports, and yet there is still a niggling doubt that the Bank will wait until April.Pivot for:BOJ to end yield curve control and ETF purchases — NikkeiBOJ to end NIRP and YCC, “a done deal” – here’s what might be a dovish surprisePivot against:It’s a close call, but not everyone expects the Bank of Japan to tighten policy todayBank of Japan won’t tighten policy – here’s why they’ll wait until AprilBank of Japan Governor Ueda This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Morgan Stanley point to a broadening of the S&P 500 rally in the past month
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 11:46 pm

    Morgan Stanley on US equities:“We analyze 6 different breadth measures across S&P 500 sectors and for the overall index by looking at their percent ranks this cycle (since the Covid lows)” “Bottom line, breadth has improved over the past month — an average of the percent ranks across these 6 measures for the overall S&P is now 70%, up from 55% a month ago”Analysts at MS add that the the strongest breadth profile versus one month ago is currently the industrials sector, and that energy, materials, real estate and utilities have exhibited the greatest breadth improvement in the last month. “The recent broadening within large cap leadership may be how the market is dealing with the inconsistency of higher rates and still elevated multiples for the large cap equity indices” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • BoJ’s Pivot Imminent: Yen Ready for Takeoff or Tumble? Setup on USD/JPY
    by Diego Colman on March 18, 2024 at 11:15 pm

    The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years when it concludes its March policy meeting. The decision could trigger market volatility and shape the Japanese yen’s near-term outlook.

  • GBP/USD attracts some sellers below the mid-1.2700s, all eyes on Fed, BoE rate decision
    on March 18, 2024 at 11:14 pm

    The GBP/USD pair remains under some selling pressure during the early Asian session on Tuesday.

  • UBS analyst neutral on US equities, but constructive on quality companies
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 11:14 pm

    CNBC cite UBS strategist Vincent Heaney: expects the S&P 500 to end the year modestly higheris most bullish on quality stocksbroader market index led higher by AI tailwinds and a tech-induced rally “Markets are likely to be choppy amid shifting expectations for central bank policy easing,” “But we think lower interest rates, positive economic growth, and growing corporate earnings should create a supportive backdrop for equities in 2024.” “Quality companies—with strong balance sheets, high profitability, and resilient earnings—should be best positioned to deliver performance, especially if economic growth slows. We see opportunities across regions, including the U.S. IT sector,” discounted valuations and potential catalysts might keep U.S. small caps looking attractivealso sees opportunities within European small- and mid-cap names This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Gold stays afloat despite high US yields as traders focus on Fed policy
    on March 18, 2024 at 11:11 pm

    Gold price registers modest gains on Monday amid a quiet session as investors brace for major central banks monetary policy decisions.

  • Reuters report that New Zealand Prime Minister Luxon intends visit to China
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 11:02 pm

    New Zealand’s previous Prime Minister Chris Hipkins visited China in mid-2023. Noob PM Chris Luxon says he’ll visit too, in the months ahead.Luxon met with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New Zealand this week.Luxon has been invited to visit China, and the Chinese leadership invited to New Zealand but “nothing had been confirmed yet.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Australian weekly consumer confidence 81.7 (prior 82.2)
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 10:46 pm

    ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence index is published weekly, comes in at 81.7prior week 82.2ANZ comments: ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was broadly unchanged last week. Inflation expectations fell (down 0.1% on thee week to 4.8%) to their lowest level since February 2022Confidence amongst households paying off a mortgage declined 6.4pts to its lowest level this year, despite expectations the RBA will keep the cash rate on hold today. Confidence amongst renters remains weak, declining 1.8pts.—Coming up later from Australia is the March policy meeting, no cash rate change is expected:Reserve Bank of Australia meet this week – on hold decision expectedReserve Bank of Australia expected to keep its 4.35% cash rate unchanged until SeptemberThe Reserve Bank of Australia March policy decision is due on the 19th – ‘on hold’ previewCurrent RBA Cash Rate and Australian inflation rates This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • AUD/USD creeps lower ahead of RBA’s decision, Fed meeting in focus
    on March 18, 2024 at 10:42 pm

    The Australian Dollar begins the Asian session, clocking minuscule losses of 0.02% against the US Dollar as market participants prepare for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision.

  • It’s a close call, but not everyone expects the Bank of Japan to tighten policy today
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 10:28 pm

    Commonwealth Bank of Australia:A likely strong initial result from the shunto wage negotiations will open the door for the Bank of Japan to remove its Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) and Yield Curve Control (YCC) soon. Our base case is for the BoJ to signal a policy exit is possible at this meeting but wait until April to exit the NIRP and YCC. The risk is the BoJ exits both policies at this meeting.ANZ:Shunto wage negotiations have started stronger than last year, giving the BoJ a green light to move away from negative rates at its policy meeting this week. Our central case for the BoJ to exit negative interest rates remains in April, but it is an extremely close call. The BoJ will be updating its forecasts at that meeting and it will have more news on union-based wage agreements and data on business inflation expectations. Media reports suggest the BoJ is close to exiting YCC. The central bank may also consider dropping its guidance that interest rates could go lower and end its J-REIT and ETF asset purchase programs.Westpac:Given the current fragility of the economy, the BoJ is not expected to deliver any material changes to its policy setting just yetIf these 3 are correct the JPY will get smashed lower. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears assert their dominance, eyes on a possible short-term momentum shift
    on March 18, 2024 at 10:26 pm

    In Monday’s trading, NZD/USD remained largely unchanged around 0.6085 while the pair showed ongoing sell-off pressure.

  • Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD retreats toward $25.00, forms a ‘bearish harami’ candle pattern
    on March 18, 2024 at 10:02 pm

    Silver’s price dropped toward $25.00 a troy ounce on Monday as US Treasury bond yields rose ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

  • ICYMI (posted Monday) – Goldman Sachs predicts three Fed rate cuts in 2024
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 9:49 pm

    An ICYMI from a post on Monday, this change from GS is getting some attention:Goldman Sachs expect 3 Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 (from 4 previously)GS cited “The recent uptick in US inflation—we expect 0.29% mom for February core PCE, up from a 0.13% average in Q4—has prompted us to soften our baseline Fed call to three 25bp cuts this year (vs. four previously) in June”The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meet this week, the statement is due at 2pm US Eastern time on Wednesday, 20 March 2024:Earlier previews:The dot plot is overrated but even the minute details will matter this timeBofA: Here is what we expect from this week’s FOMC meeting This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • MicroStrategy Stock Forecast: MSTR sinks more than 15% to kick off week
    on March 18, 2024 at 9:39 pm

    MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock shunted lower a whopping 15% on Monday.

  • Crude Oil extends rally, WTI crosses above $82.00
    on March 18, 2024 at 9:28 pm

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil climbed over $82.00 per barrel on Monday, extending a near-term bull.

  • Standard Chartered are forecasting Bitcoin to $150,000 in 2024
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 9:22 pm

    Standard Chartered cite the surge of inflows, “sticky’ institutional flows, into exchange-traded funds (ETF) and say if inflows continue strongly then BTC will keep rising:“For 2024, the $150,000 level now looks likely” “For end-2024, we raise our long-held price estimate to the $150,000 level from $100,000 given the more rapid pass-through from ETF inflows to the BTC price to date.”For 2025 STanChart’s view is that if ETF inflows hit $75bn or if reserve managers start accumulating BTC it raises a strong possibility of a move to 250K. Old hat This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Mar: The FX market is quiet ahead of CB decisions
    by Greg Michalowski on March 18, 2024 at 8:59 pm

    Goldman Sachs: Analyzing the March FOMC meeting’s impact on USDBitcoin corrects higher and finds willing sellers against a key hourly moving average.White House: Deal for Gaza ceasefire has been more elusive than US hopedThe dot plot is overrated but even the minute details will matter this timeECBs Centeno says cutting rate may help prevent a recessionBOJ to end yield curve control and ETF purchases — NikkeiPowell will be Fed chair until May 15, 2026. Then what?Trump’s lawyers say he’s been unable to obtain an appeal bond for $464m judgementBofA: Here is what we expect from this week’s FOMC meetingGoogle is a serious leader in gen AI. Apple agrees with this new strategic collaboration.US March NAHB housing market index 51 vs 48 expectedKickstart the FX day for March 18 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.Treasury yields continue to press towards the highs of the yearCanada February PPI +0.7% m/m vs +0.1% expectedThe AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session beginsForexLive European FX news wrap: Currencies muted awaiting major central bank decisionsThe US trading day started with all the major currency pairs (with the exception of the USDJPY) having less than 30 pip ranges. The day is ending with the GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD all below 30 pips. The USDCAD did reach 31 pips. The USDJPY range was at 42 pips at the start of the US session and stayed the same through the US session. The EURUSD did extend from 27 pips to 40 pips. The USDCHF was the biggest mover with a range of 63 pips as it broke to the upside and found momentum buying from traders. Although the SNB and the US Fed is set to meet this week (both expected to keep rates unchanged), there was no real news that kickstarted the rise. However, yields did rise in the US perhaps in anticipation of a less dovish Fed (?). Technicals did play a role as well as the USDCHF’s rise based near the 200-day MA and later broke above the high from Friday/last week at 0.88524 leading to more technical buying. The run to the upside is testing the high from February at 0.8885 going into the end of day. The March high is not far away at 0.8893 (see chart below). The run in the CHF (to the downside) was mirrored vs the other major currencies as the CHF is ending the day as the weakest of the major currencies. The CAD and the USD are ending the day as the strongest of the majors.The new trading day will usher in the first two of what will be 5 central bank decision. Both the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce in the new trading day. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to make a significant shift in its monetary policy, which includes ending yield curve control, stopping the purchase of risk assets, and moving away from negative interest rates. More specifically:A potential change includes raising the short-term policy rate target from minus 0.1% to between zero and 0.1%, moving away from the negative rate imposed since 2016 to encourage lending.The BOJ plans to eliminate yield curve control, a policy since September 2016, which involved buying large amounts of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to control short-term and long-term yields. This policy led the BOJ to hold more than half of all outstanding JGBs.While the BOJ will continue purchasing some JGBs to prevent spikes in bond yields, it will stop its rate suppression activities and remove the 1% cap on the 10-year yield, allowing it to fluctuate with market conditions.The bank will also end purchases of Japanese stock exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (REITs), which started in 2010 and significantly expanded under subsequent BOJ leadership.Meanwhile, the RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. The market is looking for a cut but not until September (see post here for more details and expectations). The AUD was mostly, but modestly higher vs most of the major currencies. The JPY is ending little changed/mixed. In the US stock market today, major indices closed higher:Dow Industrial Average rose 75.66 points or 0.20% at 38790.44S&P rose 32.33 points or 0.63% at 5149.43Nasdaq index rose 130.28 points or 0.82% at 16103.46.Nvidia shares had a volatile day and closed higher by $6.18 or 0.70% but was up $45.68 points at session highs. Other mover included:Apple, up 0.65%Alphabet +4.6%CrowdStrike, +1.71%Meta Platform, +2.66%Salesforce, +2.10%Caterpillar +1.42%Tesla, +6.25%Palo Alto Network +1.09%In the US debt market, yields are higher with the 2 and 10 year yields moving higher for the 5th consecutive day:2 year yield, 4.736%, +1.1 basis points5-year yield, 4.345%, +2.1 basis points10-year yield, 4.326%, +2.2 basis points30 year yield, 4.450%, +2.2 basis pointsCrude oil is trading up $1.14 or 1.41% at $82.19. The price is trading at the highest level since November 3rd and is above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the September 2023 high at $81.37. Gold is up $4.24 or 0.20% at $2159.99.Bitcoin is staying below its falling 100-hour MA currently at $68,064, but needs to get and stay below the 38.2% of the move up from the February 24 low. That retracement level comes in at $64.927 (see video on the technical driving the digital currency by clicking here). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Japan to Exit Negative Interest Rates as BoJ Prepares Major Policy Shift
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 8:57 pm

    Coming up from the Bank of Japan today is their expected decision to exit negative interest rate policy, after eight years. There is no set time for the statement, there never is, but past experience shows to expect it sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window.This preview via a couple of snippets from Deutsche Bank research notes, who kick off with the big call that the “BoJ decision likely to overshadow the FOMC”:We expect the BoJ to revise its policy and abandon both NIRP and the multi-tiered current account structure and set rates on all excess reserves at 0.1%. We also see both the YCC and the inflation-overshooting commitment ending, replaced by a benchmark for the pace of the bank’s JGB purchasing activity.DB reasoning:Last Friday saw Rengo (the country’s largest union group) announce the first tally of the results of this year’s shunto spring wage negotiation. That saw a higher-than-expected wage hike, and in the past the difference has been very small between the first tally results and the official data on the shunto wage increase. So that means it could well be the largest increase in Japanese wages since 1991, around the time the Japanese bubble burst. Our Japanese economist … thinks it makes the decision to take Japan out of negative rate territory tomorrow even more certain. He also suggests that wage setting behaviour is likely to have returned to the pre-1998 regime, in which inflation is reflected in wage increases.On what’s ahead for Japanese fixed interest:upside potential to yieldsThere had been a risk that a Japanese hiking cycle would be stopped out before it started by a US recession in late 2023 or early 2024. But with that risk now falling, it does pave the way for higher Japanese base rates and yields all starting from tomorrow.Ueda’s press conference will follow at 0630 GMT. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • US Dollar sees some upside as markets gear up for FOMC decision
    on March 18, 2024 at 8:51 pm

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at 103.55 on Monday, reflecting minor gains.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average finds thin gains on quiet Monday but lags telecomms rebound
    on March 18, 2024 at 8:44 pm

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed on Monday as investors returned to risk bids to kick off a hectic central bank-themed trading week.

  • Canadian Dollar rotates into the middle on quiet Monday ahead of central-bank-laden week
    on March 18, 2024 at 8:42 pm

    The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is sifting chart paper on Monday, easing into the trading week as investors take a moment to breathe before a full-pull central bank week begins in earnest.

  • US equities stumble late but still post a strong day
    by Adam Button on March 18, 2024 at 8:08 pm

    It was a happy Monday for equity markets, even if we saw stocks fall to the lows of the day in the final 5 minutes on some heavy late selling.S&P 500 +32 points, or 0.6% to 5149Nasdaq Comp +0.8%Russell 2000 -0.6%DJIA +0.2%Toronto TSX Comp flat This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, 19 March 2024 – BOJ and RBA day!
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 7:59 pm

    The Bank of Japan is expected to exit its negative interest rate policy today, after eight years. There is no set time for the statement, there never is, but past experience shows to expect it sometime in the 0230 to 0330 GMT time window. The news flow on the pivot from the Bank of Japan has been relentless, with little push-back from the Bank. So, while there have been rumours of change going into nearly every meeting for the past two years, this time appears to be different. Expectations are for an end to negative rates, ETF purchases and YCC. Given the fickleness of the BOJ I’d put a 75% probability on the pivot today and a 25% probability of a rug-pull no change. The latest news flow is here:BOJ to end yield curve control and ETF purchases — NikkeiBOJ to end NIRP and YCC, “a done deal” – here’s what might be a dovish surpriseThe Reserve Bank of Australia statement is also due today, and is taking a back seat to the events in Tokyo. Reserve Bank of Australia meet this week – on hold decision expectedReserve Bank of Australia expected to keep its 4.35% cash rate unchanged until SeptemberThe Reserve Bank of Australia March policy decision is due on the 19th – ‘on hold’ previewThis snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 19 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
    by Eamonn Sheridan on March 18, 2024 at 7:59 pm

    Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

  • Immigration is explaining parts of the economy that were tough to make sense of
    by Adam Button on March 18, 2024 at 7:57 pm

    I’ve been thinking all day about the Goldman Sachs note on immigration in the US and what it means for monetary policy this year. It explains why jobs growth has been so resilient when the underlying economy has slowed.You can’t sum it up any better than GS did.We estimate immigration in 2023 was 1.5m above the trend of roughly 1m per year, which implies an 80k boost to the monthly breakeven rate of job growth to 155k. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs says immigration is about 1 million higher than usual this year so that implies break-even jobs growth of +125K.With that Goldman Sachs boosted its GDP and jobs numbers for this year. One of the biggest puzzles of the last year has been that the labor market has continued to rebalance and the unemployment rate has increased somewhat despite surprisingly strong payroll growth and GDP growth. The explanation appears to partly be that elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth.For the Fed, the read through (if they agree) is dovish as it creates a higher bar for payroll growth this year and explains why the jobs market wasn’t really that strong in 2023. It also raises the stakes for the 2024 election because it could mark the start of a sharp reversal in immigration. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • USD/JPY coils just above 149.00 ahead of BoJ, Fed action
    on March 18, 2024 at 7:53 pm

    USD/JPY is churning chart paper just above the 149.00 handle as investors gear up for a central-bank-heavy week.

  • Forex Today: The Dollar remains bid as FOMC event looms
    on March 18, 2024 at 7:49 pm

    The US Dollar started the week in a positive fashion on the back of further upside in US yields and shrinking bets on an interest rate cut at the June event.

  • AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls remain weak and give up daily gains
    on March 18, 2024 at 7:47 pm

    On Monday’s session, the AUD/JPY pair is trading at 97.71, mildly down after peaking at a high of around 98.10, near the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

  • Goldman Sachs: Analyzing the March FOMC meeting’s impact on USD
    by Adam Button on March 18, 2024 at 7:24 pm

    As the Federal Reserve prepares for its March FOMC meeting, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the committee is likely to maintain its cautious stance, with expectations for a rate cut postponed to June. This projection comes despite numerous changes since the last meeting, none of which seem to hasten the Fed’s decision-making. The outlook for a gradual easing cycle is reinforced by recent developments aligning more closely with the Fed’s December projections on disinflation progress. Given that other central banks are also adopting a cautious approach, significant currency movements are anticipated to be limited. The focus remains on carry and cyclical factors, leaving the Dollar in a unique position outside these primary influences.Key Points:Postponed Rate Cuts: Goldman Sachs predicts the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in June, with a slower cycle likely due to recent economic data and inflation trends aligning with the FOMC’s less optimistic projections.Global Central Bank Caution: The cautious stance is not unique to the Fed; other central banks globally are also taking a deliberate approach to policy adjustments, impacting currency volatility.Dollar’s Unique Position: Given the current global economic landscape, the USD does not fit neatly into either carry or cyclical categories, suggesting that its movements will be influenced by a broader range of factors beyond immediate central bank policies.Conclusion:The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to reflect a continued cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, aligning with global central bank trends. This outlook suggests that significant USD movements might be more influenced by carry and cyclical factors rather than direct policy changes in the near term. Goldman Sachs’ analysis indicates that while rate cuts are on the horizon, the path to easing will be gradual, mirroring the careful strategies of central banks worldwidFor bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Mexican Peso weakens and plunges against US Dollar amid Mexico’s holiday
    on March 18, 2024 at 6:48 pm

    The Mexican Peso (MXN) depreciates sharply against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as Mexico’s markets remain closed in the observance of Benito Juarez’s birth, a former President of Mexico.

  • NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears intensify their grip, bulls must defend SMAs
    on March 18, 2024 at 6:35 pm

    In Monday’s trading, the NZD/JPY reversed its course and gave up daily gains to decline towards 90.60.

  • EUR/USD drops on high US yields as markets eye FOMC decision
    on March 18, 2024 at 6:09 pm

    The Euro drops against the US Dollar at the beginning of the week as investors brace for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision.

  • Pound Sterling stabilizes ahead of key central bank decisions
    on March 18, 2024 at 5:11 pm

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  • GBP/USD stabilizes ahead of key central bank decisions, UK’s inflation in focus
    on March 18, 2024 at 5:00 pm

    The Pound Sterling losses steam and treads water against the US Dollar as traders prepare for the announcement of major central banks’ monetary policy decisions.

  • Gold Price Outlook: Fed May Shake Up Markets. Pullback or Rally in Store?
    by Diego Colman on March 18, 2024 at 5:00 pm

    The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and policy outlook this week could be a source of market volatility and help guide gold prices in the near term.

  • RBA Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for AUD/USD – TDS
    on March 18, 2024 at 3:59 pm

    Economists at TD Securities discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision and their implications for the AUD/USD pair.

  • BoJ Preview: Forecasts from 12 major banks, on the verge of ending negative rates
    on March 18, 2024 at 3:32 pm

    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Tuesday, March 19 and as we get closer to the Interest Rate Decision, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of 12 major banks.

  • EUR/JPY trades little changed as BoJ hike now priced in, Eurozone data upbeat
    on March 18, 2024 at 3:20 pm

    EUR/JPY is trading higher, up seven hundredths of the percent on Monday after the release of relatively upbeat Eurozone figures showed the region recording a trade surplus in January, and the final revisions of February inflation data matching flash estimates.

  • Sterling Outlook: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY Setups Ahead of CPI
    by Richard Snow on March 18, 2024 at 2:42 pm

    Sterling remains one of the better performers against the dollar this year with the BoE less dovish than the Fed – something that could improve its interest rate differential

  • Euro Higher Despite Market Worries of More Gradualist Fed
    by David Cottle on March 18, 2024 at 12:30 pm

    The US central bank was expected to cut rates this month at the start of the year. Now the markets are sure it won’t.

  • Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Rally Continues, BoJ Policy Decision Imminent
    by Nick Cawley on March 18, 2024 at 8:46 am

    Tuesday’s Bank of Japan policy decision may see the central bank lift interest rates out of negative territory for the first time since January 2016

  • Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq Slips, Gold Steadies, Central Banks on Tap
    by Nick Cawley on March 17, 2024 at 6:00 pm

    Five major central banks announce their latest monetary policy decisions next week and post-announcement commentary will be key. And the Nasdaq might need some help.

  • Gold Price Forecast: Fed in Spotlight – Bullish Explosion or Crash Ahead?
    by Diego Colman on March 16, 2024 at 6:00 pm

    The Federal Reserve’s decision and monetary policy guidance in the coming week will be the focus of financial markets. A hawkish outcome could be positive for the U.S. dollar and yields, but bearish for gold prices.

  • EUR/USD Levels Off at Support Ahead of Key Fed Decision – Outlook & Analysis
    by Diego Colman on March 15, 2024 at 4:00 pm

    This article looks at EUR/USD’s near-term outlook, examining potential technical scenarios ahead of the Fed decision next week.

  • US Dollar Closes in on Resistance, GBP/USD Testing Support, Interest Rate Decisions Near
    by Nick Cawley on March 15, 2024 at 1:00 pm

    The latest PPI report gave the US dollar a push higher on Thursday ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

  • Japanese Wages Rise to 30-Year High, Fueling BoJ Rate Speculation
    by Richard Snow on March 15, 2024 at 9:15 am

    Japan’s largest trade union group, Rengo, announced a 5.28% wage increase for its workers – supporting the view that the BoJ is likely to hike rates before the summer

  • US Dollar Soars on Inflation Risks as Fed Looms; EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Setups
    by Diego Colman on March 15, 2024 at 12:10 am

    This article provides an in-depth analysis of the outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD, exploring various technical and fundamental scenarios that could play out in the near term.

  • IEA Revises Oil Demand Outlook, Tweaks Supply Estimates – Oil Rises
    by Richard Snow on March 14, 2024 at 6:00 pm

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand growth by 110,000 barrels per day and trimmed back supply estimates. Oil trading higher on the day

  • Gold Price Coils Further, Silver Hits a Multi-Week High
    by Nick Cawley on March 14, 2024 at 2:03 pm

    Gold is seemingly putting together a bullish pennant on the daily chart, while silver looks to push further ahead after Wednesday’s break of resistance.

  • Japanese Yen Slips A Little, But BoJ Policy Hopes Still Lend Support
    by David Cottle on March 14, 2024 at 12:30 pm

    Decades of ultra-loose monetary policy have put the Yen in a unique position among major currencies. But for how much longer?

  • EUR/USD Stumbles as ECB Official Calls for Two Rate Cuts Before the Summer
    by Richard Snow on March 14, 2024 at 9:10 am

    Well-known dove, Yannis Stournaras called for not one, but two rate cuts before the summer break, contrasting with the overall ECB stance to follow the Fed

  • US Dollar Seeks Fed Signals in PPI, Retail Sales Data – EUR/USD, USD/JPY Setups
    by Diego Colman on March 13, 2024 at 10:30 pm

    The release of U.S. PPI and retail sales data on Thursday is poised to capture the market’s focus and potentially ignite volatility, as both macroeconomic reports may influence the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Rally Further – Where to Next?
    by Nick Cawley on March 13, 2024 at 2:30 pm

    Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to post new highs, despite the occasional sharp sell-off. The outlook remains positive as the Bitcoin halving event gets ever closer.

  • Crude Oil Prices Pop Up On Bullish OPEC Demand Calls
    by David Cottle on March 13, 2024 at 1:00 pm

    Crude Oil prices have managed strong gains, but the market looks heavy up here and may be in some danger of topping out

  • British Pound Update – GDP Picks Up in January, GBP Unchanged, FTSE Tests Resistance
    by Nick Cawley on March 13, 2024 at 8:30 am

    UK GDP figures showed economic growth picking up in January but the outlook still looks weak. Sterling remains little changed while the FTSE 100 tests multi-month resistance.

  • US Dollar Forecast: Hot US Inflation Data Drives USD/JPY Higher. What Now?
    by Diego Colman on March 12, 2024 at 4:55 pm

    This article examines the USD/JPY’s technical outlook, analyzing key price levels that traders should watch over the coming trading sessions.